Maybe I am a Centrist After All

I used to consider myself pretty centrist. I mean, alright, I was a member of the Progressive Student Union in college, but probably its most conservative member. But I believed enough of the same things they did that we could work together for things that seemed doable and important on campus. I considered myself centrist at the turn of the millennium, when Clinton –Bill Clinton, the one that was actually President — had survived impeachment, and when Dubya was a Governor with Presidential aspirations, back when air travel didn’t mean slip-on shoes.

Then, somewhere along the line, the Center apparently took a turn to the right, and I found myself out in the cornfield among lefties, liberals, activists, and other progressives.

Or at least, that’s what I thought.

To listen to the rhetoric, “everybody” agrees we must support our troops and that means nobody can say anything bad about the Bush Administration. Because, well I don’t know, maybe the insurgents are quoting Randi Rhodes at our troops instead of trying to kill them. Well, you know my stance on that. I do support the troops: I pray for peace.

But then, yesterday, out of the blue, I read this item by Molly Ivins, who I had considered to be just a tetch to the left of me. And I realized that the center had not moved after all! The highway signs had just been changed. To quote:

The majority of the American people (55 percent) think the war in Iraq is a mistake and that we should get out. The majority (65 percent) of the American people want single-payer health care and are willing to pay more taxes to get it. The majority (86 percent) of the American people favor raising the minimum wage. The majority of the American people (60 percent) favor repealing Bush’s tax cuts, or at least those that go only to the rich. The majority (66 percent) wants to reduce the deficit not by cutting domestic spending, but by reducing Pentagon spending or raising taxes.

The majority (77 percent) thinks we should do “whatever it takes” to protect the environment. The majority (87 percent) thinks big oil companies are gouging consumers and would support a windfall profits tax. That is the center, you fools. WHO ARE YOU AFRAID OF?

So let me get this straight. Most Americans want to bring the troops home, have health insurance, get a living wage, have the rich pay higher taxes, cut the deficit,* and protect the environment; yet somehow that’s a crazy liberal idea? And more to the point, why can’t our elected officials who claim to be so mindful of public opinion manage to do what it turns out the sometimes overwhelming majority of us want?

I hope Howard Dean has these figures, because it seems to me the Democratic Party doesn’t need an angle so much as they need to play to Peoria, the real Peoria, not K Street. Corporations do not vote; people do.

*As an aside, I’d like to point out that if more Americans earned a living wage, they would pay taxes on that money. And if we got rid of nutty tax breaks, that would be more taxes paid too. Now, you don’t suppose that could help reduce the deficit, do you?

John Stossel and the Amazing Logical Fallacy

Maybe you heard about it, and maybe you actually watched John Stossel’s “Stupid In America.” To be fair, Mr. Stossel is a small-l libertarian and has been airing his opinions about the American educational system since at least 1999, so we can all be forgiven if this sounds like things he has said before. This is only the latest salvo.

I’d like to take a couple paragraphs from Reason’s coverage of the show, as written by Mr. Stossel:

The Belgians did better [on identical tests given to Belgian and American students] because their schools are better. At age ten, American students take an international test and score well above the international average. But by age fifteen, when students from forty countries are tested, the Americans place twenty-fifth. The longer kids stay in American schools, the worse they do in international competition. They do worse than kids from countries that spend much less money on education.

This should come as no surprise once you remember that public education in the USA is a government monopoly. Don’t like your public school? Tough. The school is terrible? Tough. Your taxes fund that school regardless of whether it’s good or bad. That’s why government monopolies routinely fail their customers. Union-dominated monopolies are even worse.

Now, I am willing to let stand the facts he cites in the first paragraph, and assume he has statistics to back them up. Namely, 10 year old American students test well compared to their international peers, but 15 year old American students do not. Our inner scientists should immediately ask why: what are they doing that we are not; what is different; is it the schools, the teachers, the methods, the teaching materials? Obviously something changes between age 10 — when kids are doing fine — and age 15 — when they are not. By and large, the families and neighborhoods of these kids have not changed, which limits the number of factors which could be at work. Mr. Stossel does well to point out that our kids appear to get dumber the more school they attend and money is not the magic factor.

I would love to sit him down with John Taylor Gatto for an hour or so and televise the results.

Unfortunately for all of us, Mr. Stossel does not ask “what do the Belgians do with kids aged 10-15 that we do not?” Instead, he makes the logical leap that “the state monopoly on education is to blame.” He envisions a capitalist frenzy where “There could soon be technology schools, cheap Wal-Mart-like schools, virtual schools where you learn at home on your computer, sports schools, music schools, schools that go all year, schools with uniforms, schools that open early and keep kids later, and, who knows? If there were competition, all kinds of new ideas would bloom.” Strangely enough, Mr. Stossel appears unaware of the many private schools in the United States, schools with philosophies, fees, and performance levels as variable as snowflakes. Oh, and let’s not even bring up homeschooling.

Curious about Belgian schools? According to this, the multiple languages spoken in Belgium are an issue, and “As well as state schools, there are subsidised ‘free’ and independent schools, often run on religious lines, though their curricula and certification are recognised equally within the system.” This tends to indicate to me that the broad strokes of curricula are controlled at the national level, and some sort of certification is conferred much like “accreditation” in the United States.

Perhaps more important to the mystery of why 15 year old Belgians are smarter than 15 year old Americans is that they “start to channel students into general, vocational, technical or artistic streams depending on individual choice and ability,” and “Assessment is ongoing and rigidly enforced.” In other words, they admit the heresy that not everybody is college material. Vocational and technical training is a good thing. Furthermore, nobody gets promoted without having the skills and knowledge to move on. Notice the difference between No Child Left Behind and this ongoing, enforced assessment: in NCLB the school fails but the kids move on to underperform at a higher level; in Belgium, the student keeps working until they have the skills to move on.

Gee, no wonder.

In closing, I bring you coyotes in a neighborhood near you (Wile E…. er, wiley, aren’t they?), more approval ratings than you can shake a stick at (thanks, Sarah!), who says wheelchairs can’t be cool, maybe living wage is an easier issue to rally behind than secretly spying on Americans, and finally a must read item, States caught up in Real ID nightmare. Remember two things: the primary purpose of a driver’s license is showing that someone can safely operate a motor vehicle; and just because we know who somebody is doesn’t mean we know if somebody is a bad guy.

Shorties of the Black Lagoon

“Torture data long enough, and it will confess to anything you want it to.” Barry Ritholtz brings us The Unpleasant Truth About Inflation and Rethinking the ‘Strong Jobs Recovery’ Scenario. In short, data is being manipulated to make it seem that inflation is benign and job growth is decent if not spectacular. If you only read two items on the economy today, make it these.

I bought a funnel cake today where Jesus walked… No, really, there is talk of building a giant Holy Land theme park in Israel. Because, well, God Knows there are no land disputes there. And the world clearly needs more theme parks.

Violence Against (Some) Women Act. In seems that when Congress reauthorized the Violence Against Women Act, they managed to put in a section making it against the law to anonymously “annoy” someone online, but somehow they missed the fact that it’s perfectly legal to buy the phone records of a complete stranger or the object of one’s dark obsessions. Um, how exactly does this make me safer?

Who Likes Short Skirts?? Well, not your clients and not your boss. That cheesy guy who gives you the creeps but hey he’s a client and he pays you well? He likes short skirts! Seriously ladies, a new study confirms common sense: Looking “sexy” and looking like an intelligent management/executive type don’t mix. “Dress for success” is still largely true.

And one more thing: Don’t forget that Mr. Alito’s confirmation hearings begin today. Be sure to scroll down and click to watch the slideshow of quotes. My favorite is when he ruled against the school newspaper that didn’t want to run advertising for beer. Strip-searching the 10 year old girl just because her daddy was suspected of being a drug dealer falls a distant second to that.

56% of Americans Think the 4th Amendment is a Good Thing

Yes, it turns out that most Americans believe that the Bush Administration ought to get a warrant before snooping, even if they are terrorists. For the terminally curious, here’s how they got the numbers.

There are still a lot of people trying to spin this big mess, and here’s some debunking of the spin. The bottom line is this: if they are really bad guys, get a warrant! That’s what FISA is for! If they are not bad guys, get lost! As for the argument that we can’t prove they are bad guys, only linked to bad guys, I invite you to read Molly Ivins’s piece, “Six Degrees of Osama bin Laden”.

Go ahead, think about it, play the game. I bet you’re closer to terrorists than you think.

Whose phones have they tapped, anyway?

In closing, DeLay bows to pressure from his own party to leave position of leadership, Cheney’s health continues to be in question, and Hurricane Season 2005 is finally over.

The Phantom of the Shorties

Firefilter: “Well, honey, I never did like that chimnea.”

The “safety dance” has lyrics. On one hand, congratulations to the TSA for figuring out that bad guys are bad not because of what they are named, but because of what they do. On the other hand, I can think of a lot of reasons someone might be nervous in an airport, particularly when being questioned by a man with a gun. I have concerns regarding the possible misuse of this program.

You might want to take a few moments on a regular basis to pay attention to what is happening in Asia.

Where have I read this before? Oh yeah, now I remember. It’s the same kind of trash people were saying about Generation X fifteen years ago. Can we have some kind of contest to come up with a better name than “Generation Y”? Surely we can think of something; after all, Generation X used to be known as the “baby busters.”

Looks like we won’t see Dow 11,000 in 2005. GM and housing inventory are at levels not seen since the Reagan Administration.

This government spying thing is like watching a Ron Popeil infomercial on late night cable; every time you look, somebody is saying “But wait! There’s more!”

And finally, a little Geography quiz.

Happy New Year, stay safe, don’t drive drunk, and don’t fire guns into the air, alright?

Optional Week

Maybe you don’t pay too much attention to Wall Street and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That’s ok. You might not know that the big question for a while has been “Will the Dow hit 11,000? Will the Dow end 2005 over 11,000?” Many analysts say yes, because the economy is going great and oil prices are coming down. Some of the big brokerage houses are behind this analysis. You can tell when an article supports this theory by the lists and bullet points. Others point out that the Dow hasn’t been at those levels in almost 5 years and there’s a lot of resistance just under 11,000. These folks give the caveat that should the Dow actually get over 11,000, it will continue to rise from there. An article supporting this theory usually has lots of charts with technical indicators and annotations.

At the risk of pointing out the obvious, this is the last week of 2005. The one thing that neither side in this debate is taking into account is the one thing that can change the balance. Options.

There are two basic kinds of options and many strategies for using them. A “put” gives the holder the right to sell something at a given price, regardless of what that something normally sells for. Someone who buys a put is expecting that prices will go down. Some put buyers see it as an insurance policy for their portfolio; if prices drop unexpectedly, they exercise the put and minimize their losses. A “call” gives the holder the right to buy something at a given price, regardless of current value. The call buyer expects prices to go up. A great use of calls is airlines buying options to buy fuel, insulating themselves from spikes in prices.

These options don’t exist in a vacuum. Somebody has to take the other side of the deal. The person who sells options is betting the buyer won’t exercise his options. He is prepared to buy if the put is exercised — meaning he has cash on hand or can have it in short order. He is prepared to sell if a call is exercised — meaning he has the thing or is prepared to get it in short order. If someone sells a call but does not have the thing he is agreeing to sell, that is called a “naked” option. Doing this is like sitting down to play poker with Wil Wheaton and his close friends; you don’t do it unless you are really good or really stupid.

So what the heck does that have to do with what the Dow is doing this week?

Where the Dow goes is going to boil down to what options are written and exercised on the Dow itself and each of its 30 components. Who has exercised puts on GM as it sits near 20 year lows? Who is betting that Wal-Mart had a good Christmas? Who is poised to sell should we near the resistance around 10940? It is possible to know how many options there are out there, but it is impossible to know how many of them will be exercised, let alone when. Keep in mind that actual trading may be light because of people taking the week off — not only is it the week between Christmas and New Years, it’s Hannukah. Light trading means that the people who are actually there can move the markets more easily, whether accidentally or deliberately.

Sit back and enjoy the show. I’m one of the folks that thinks the Dow will not hit 11,000 this year. As for next year, Jim Jubak has some interesting theories.

In closing, two articles about schools trying so hard to bring the lowest performing students up to a level they can fake their way through standardized tests that they are failing to meet the needs of middle class and academically gifted kids; what was that I was saying last week about people not being able to retire; and they make pills for everything else, why not for dieting.

By the Book

[I]f we go by the book… hours could seem like days.
— Spock, The Wrath of Khan

Much thanks to the folks at MaxSpeak* for pointing out this set of figures from the Economic Policy Institute. Basically, they have the Degrees In Economics and the wonk-fu to compile actual statistics confirming what most of us have thought at some point in the last 2 years: “If the economy is so great, how come money is so tight?”

The figures show on a regular basis that wages are not rising despite the fact that profits are. The only way that economists can make it seem like wages are so much as keeping up with inflation is to figure in the CEO’s salary when they make the “average” figures. Frankly, this situation may be even worse than I thought, judging from some of the stuff in the description of Jack Bogle’s new book. Mr. Bogle is the fellow who invented the index fund. He knows what he’s talking about when it comes to business and the markets.

Debt is up and savings are down. And what’s even worse is that with interest rates this low, there is incentive for things to remain this way. Bernanke is going to need brass balls to steer the economy over the coming years. Frankly, maybe we don’t need to worry about Social Security solvency when the baby boomers start to retire, because a large percentage of them won’t be able to leave the workforce.

Of course that impacts the next fact, that job creation has not kept up with population growth. In last year’s elections, this fact was glossed over by both parties, much to my disgust. The headline unemployment number has remained low because of the semantic games that keep people from appearing in the workforce: people are going back to school or staying in school; people are becoming “contractors” or working “commission only” jobs or taking part time jobs because it’s better than nothing; formerly two-income households are scaling back to a single income. All these things keep someone who would really like to have full time paid work from appearing “unemployed.”

Poverty is rising. Every year since 2000. Not just in raw numbers, but as a percentage of the population. One out of every eight Americans lives in poverty. Think about that the next time you are in a crowd. I bet you a nice shiny quarter that in your local newspaper or newscast, there has been a story in the last 6 weeks about how donations to local charities such as food banks are down over previous years, yet the number of clients they serve is up.

Finally, keeping all this in mind, health care costs are rising. The insurance premiums are rising. The amount that people are paying out of pocket are rising. The number of people who decide that insurance costs too much and they will chance going without it is rising. The number of people who simply can’t get it or can’t afford it is rising. As the nice folks over at The Mess That Greenspan Made pointed out some weeks back, the fact that healthcare costs are rising is under-calculated in the official inflation number.

Oh and don’t forget, the durable goods sales were up because Boeing had record orders. Joe and Jane Average aren’t buying airplanes. They buy things like cars and houses and refrigerators. Sales of all those things are down. So “how the economy looks” all boils down to which numbers you want to use. The old saying about “lies, damn lies, and statistics” comes to mind.

In closing: How to make your credit cards pay you. Say, has Daschle found his backbone at long last? Not Necessarily the New TSA carry-on guidelines. And this last tidbit I am calling a rumor, since I can’t substantiate it anywhere — a nationwide voucher bill may have gotten through Congress. It’s possible, since they have done so much stuff this week there’s no way they have even read it all. School vouchers are one of the first subjects I wrote on here at ShortWoman.com, and I stand by my opinion that they are not a good thing. In short, they underestimate the cost of education, they ignore the incidental costs of private schools, and they pave the way for state control of private schools.

*As I write, MaxSpeak’s top story says there is a possibility of negative GDP growth in the fourth quarter. I wish he would share whatever data leads him to this conclusion, as it is a fascinating hypothesis.

Follow up: Seattle Times columnist correctly points out “If car-camping colony isn’t news, then times are worse than we think.”

Second Follow Up: I was just listening to a fellow on CNBC named David Rosenberg. He’s an economist over at Merrill Lynch whose research suggests that “the wealth effect from rising home values and the boost to spending from mortgage-equity withdrawal, and housing accounted for an astonishing 50% of GDP growth in the first half of this year….” He considers this a conservative number and cites studies by Greenspan himself suggesting the number is closer to 75% — no luck finding that online unfortunately. Now if these numbers are right, then the drop in new housing sales might explain MaxSpeak’s hypothesis. More importantly, if these numbers are right, we are all in trouble if/when the big housing boom is over.

Shorties Vs. Godzilla!

Fafnir delightfully sends up section 215 of the PATRIOT Act.

Cutting through the nonsense about Bush’s secret wiretaps. I wonder if we will ever know why the New York Times saw fit to sit on the story for over a year.

Don’t forget, there is still a Supreme Court nominee in play.

I used to live in Las Vegas, and I was unaware that we had our very own United States Senator.

Maybe your heart is in the right place this holiday season, but think before you give stuff away. If it truly isn’t good enough to use, what on earth do you think a person living in poverty will do with it?

As Epiphany approaches, don’t forget the three wiseguys who will bring widening scandal in the new year: Abramoff, Noe, and Cunningham. Only time will tell who is brought down as these investigations continue and players rush to toss one another under the bus. I keep wondering if, how, and when this will tie back to the Plame leak investigation.

Mmm smells like Nixon. The FBI is busy investigating peaceful activist groups. The DHS might be busy worrying about grad students who want to read source material on the dreaded red peril, Communism (the facts and theories are still coming in on this one).

A judge says yet again that you can’t teach “God created the world” and call it “science.”

Have a great day folks. And be careful; it’s nuts out there.

Some Advice on School Programs

By now, most schools have already had their Christmas programs, and planning for some sort of Spring Extravaganza may well be well underway. Have no fear, next year’s Christmas program will be planned by the end of summer. This being the case, you might consider forwarding this to a school drama or music teacher, or saving it until the proper time.

Over the years I have attended, performed in, and planned many amateur productions with groups that ranged from preschoolers to adults and absolutely everything in between. These productions have included concerts, plays, pageants, musicals, operas, cantatas, recitals, competitions, and some things I am probably willfully forgetting. I would like to think I have learned a thing or three about such endeavors, and thus would like to share my extremely limited wisdom with you.

Consider your audience. It’s size, that is. With an adult production you can control attendance by issuing tickets, even if you don’t charge for them. When you are out of tickets, you don’t let anybody else in. If there is enough demand, you run a second night. That’s pretty simple. With a school production you must assume that each and every student will be accompanied by at the very least two parents, and perhaps five or six people once siblings and grandparents are figured in. It is safe to say that your bare minimum audience size will be three times the number of performers. Now think about that for a minute: Do you have enough room for all of them to sit? In chairs? Will the Fire Marshal be alright with that? Is there enough parking? If the answer to any of these questions is “no,” you must either reduce the number of performers — maybe break the performance into separate grade levels or groups — or find another performance hall.

Shorter is Better. Trust me, I speak for everyone when I say that it is better to do four musical numbers well than six badly. Furthermore, your younger performers and their parents will truly appreciate a shorter program. Not even movies usually run two hours anymore; what makes you think your production is worth that kind of time? This is another case for having multiple performances by separate groups. So some people will have to *gasp* be there for two nights. That’s show-biz.

Remember the Basic Rules of Stagecraft. Things like “risers are for standing on, not dancing and stomping.” “When performers turn around, their voices don’t go out to the audience.” “Large groups of children speaking in unison cannot be understood.” “Singing and choreography are at least three times as hard as either thing alone.” Please, make sure every performer knows the very first thing I ever learned about drama: YOU MUST SPEAK LOUDLY AND SLOWLY FOR THE AUDIENCE TO UNDERSTAND YOU. Oh, and I don’t care how much you loved “Cats,” it is a bad idea to send performers running through the audience, particularly if you have ignored my advice about audience size and thus have a standing-room-only crowd.

Avoid Anything Labeled “A Musical for Young Voices.” Seriously. Especially if it butchers old songs with cutesy lyrics. Particularly if it comes with an accompaniment tape or CD. A minimum of 95% of such works stink, and you have better things to do that try to find the one that doesn’t. We aren’t talking Rodgers and Hammerstein here. The plots are usually insipid, the lines designed to showcase the handful of kids with good stage presence and otherwise give a token line to everybody. The music is usually mercifully forgettable, although each song tends to be at least one verse too long — and you can’t cut verses when using a pre-recorded accompaniment. If you just have to do a musical, why not write it in house? Older kids can write the lines, or you can adapt a short book. As for music, we live in a world with thousands of folk songs and hundreds of Christmas songs. These are familiar songs which students might encounter again someday, not some throwaway tune that they will never hear again.

Consider and Communicate Logistics. This is absolutely vital when you have multiple groups of performers! Not one person in your audience came to see somebody move music stands for 10 minutes. Consider the most efficient way to use your performance space over the course of the entire show. Use curtains, risers, scenery, judicious intermissions, announcements, and multiple stage hands to advantage whenever possible. Furthermore, be sure your performers know where to go before the show, how to get to their place in the show, and where to go after the show. Do not assume they know. When your performers are students, make sure their parents know when and where to drop them off, pick them up, and what they should be wearing. Make this known at least two weeks before the show, and remind them as critical times approach.

Thank you for your patience. Season’s Greetings, everyone!

Security Theatre Act XI

I Guess We Can’t Call Them “Air Marshals” Anymore

Today it was announced that Air Marshals will also be patrolling — both uniformed and undercover — on busses, trains, and ferries. Here’s a great excerpt: “Rather, the TSA is trying to expand the role of air marshals, who have been eager to conduct surveillance activities beyond the aircraft, and tighten security at public transit stations over the holiday.”

So how about that. We now have a Secret Transit Police. How long until one of them shoots some mentally ill homeless person? And what interesting class warfare implications this has. After all, rich people don’t ride the bus.

Is this about insuring the safety of public transit riders? Then why not put uniformed beat cops on busses? Or is this about — in their own words — “surveillance activities” against American citizens as they go about their business?