Eight Legged Shorties

If we say we’re fixing the problem, maybe nobody will notice it’s still there. Granted, I think it’s good that the United States is looking into “regulatory proposals that could mandate broader inspections of imports and stiffer penalties for ignoring safety rules.” However, it occurs to me that their track record on such issues is somewhat less than stellar.

It turns out “privatization” of some government functions isn’t very libertarian at all. DarkSyde over at Daily Kos points out all the warts on the face of outsourcing such things as emergency services, but the short version is that “the level playing field is dissolved in favor of government sanctioned monopolies awarded in secret no-bid contracts” and “only the profit is privatized – usually into a tiny number of already obscenely wealthy hands — while overhead, cost, and losses are offloaded onto the taxpayer….”

They chose poorly. Do you remember seeing Ezra Klein telling Larry Kudlow how things really stand on universal health? Well Ezra appears on TV regularly talking about health care and health insurance issues; he researches and writes about it as his day job. Keeping that in mind, it really wasn’t terribly clever of Delta Dental to decide his $2000 root canal wasn’t medically necessary after the fact.

It only makes sense if you are anti-sex. This article called “Increasing access to birth control increases use of birth control makes the very astute point that “So more women are using Plan B, which means fewer unwanted pregnancies and fewer abortions. Who could be upset with that?” Seriously, who could be upset with that, unless what they really have a problem with is the fact that women might be having sex? Somehow the logic of “the right way to prevent abortions is to prevent unwanted pregnancies” is lost on the so-called “pro-life” movement. If they were really pro-life, they would loudly and continually denounce their inner faction that thinks it is right to enforce their opinion with violence, vandalism, and murder. If they were really pro-life they would be just as actively picketing prisons where the death penalty is carried out.

Interesting. Do you think Ted Rall has gone too far, suggesting that we know little enough about the real motivations of suicide bombers that the profile includes many, ahem, lawful combatants?

iPhone follow up. A recent poll shows that many Japanese people would love to have an iPhone. But only if they add a bunch of features. Oh, and over half of them wouldn’t actually change cell phone carriers to get one.

Nicely written. This item on traveling and passenger’s rights is worth reading, and doesn’t mention the “bye-bye plane” baby (really, which would you rather have on your flight, a happy toddler saying something over and over or a screaming, crying, unhappy toddler?) Since we do live in a highly mobile society where people routinely need to get from one place to another in a timely fashion, we need the right to do so in dignity and safety. This means no planes sitting on tarmac for hours. This means our luggage arrives with us. This means we can’t be arbitrarily delayed and denied on nothing more than the say-so of one capricious airline or TSA employee.

Restore the Constitution. Restore Habeas.

Outrageous. Marines were ordered to make things even more violent in Iraq. Um, that’s the opposite of what we thought they were supposed to do. Gee, that couldn’t have anything to do with why the Prime Minister of Iraq is inviting our troops to go home “anytime they want”.

Coincidence. Right? Last night I happened to see a newer Volvo, and looking at its size and profile I casually remarked “That’s a Volvo? What’s Ford trying to do, kill the line?” Today I happened to read that Ford is thinking of selling Volvo.

We don’t need no steenking watchdogs. It turns out that the Bush Administration hasn’t bothered to report to the intelligence oversight board. Senator “Go **** Yourself” Leahy put it better than I possibly could: “It is deeply disturbing that this administration seems to spend so much of its energy and resources trying to find ways to ignore any check and balance on its authority and avoid accountability to Congress and the American public.”

Statistics are only meaningful when you look at the underlying data. A recent study shows that video game playing among adolescents has a minor effect on reading and homework, and no effect on social skills. Earlier coverage tried to scare us by reporting that the drop was over 30%, a closer read showed that “while boys did indeed spend 30% less time reading, it was 30% of 8 minutes per day. And although 34% less time was spent on homework, this only applied to girls, and only on weekends….” Yeah, I think the more important point is that the typical adolescent boy spends only 8 minutes a day reading, not that if he were a gamer he’d only spend 5.6 minutes.

And finally. Support Dave Johnson. He makes the internet a better place.

Let’s hear it for Nancy and George

Just a few weeks ago I wrote over at Central Sanity about how student loans were sucking young adults dry, and strangely enough this problem began when Sallie Mae started to privatize.

Fast forward to today. The House of Representatives has just passed the College Cost Reduction Act of 2007 (emphasis mine):

The bill will provide the single largest increase in college aid since the GI bill in 1944. The legislation invests about $18 billion dollars over the next five years in reducing college costs, helping millions of students and families. It comes at no new cost to taxpayers, and is funded by cutting excess subsidies paid by the federal government to lenders in the student loan industry.

Yes, the plan is to cut the government handout to a few profitable student loan companies that are raking in the dough while mortgaging an entire generation, and instead give the handout to thousands of young adults who will in a few short years more than pay it back in the form of taxes on higher earnings. Contrast that, if you will, with the fact that some student loan interest is tax deductible and therefore reduces taxes paid. At no additional cost to the government, the maximum Pell Grant will rise over $1000 per eligible student by 2012. I really like that “no additional cost” part. And there’s more — the loan rate on government backed student loans will drop too, both solving a real problem and giving a nod to personal responsibility for things like college.

Oh, but please don’t skip the beautiful rant by Education and Labor Committee Chairman George Miller, lashing out against Republicans who were trying to add poison-pill amendments:

You don’t like the fact that were going to take 5 million middle class kids and extend to them a loan thats interest rate is cut in half? While their families are struggling to get them through college? They’re making sacrifices every year? You’re going to do this? You’re going to kill this bill? Are you proud? Are you proud of this amendment, that you are going to try to kill this bill? Say it louder.

There’s more, and video goodness, so check it out. But please remember, it still has to get through the Senate and probably a conference committee before it even arrives on the President’s desk. And the President has a lot of things on his mind these days.

(via mcjoan at Kos)

In closing: idle hands are the Devil’s workshop, and 60-70% of Iraqis have no job; a man, his lawn chair, and 105 balloons; CNN lets us know that “Billions in subprime ARMs will be subject to higher payments”; oh my, the FBI can prove Gonzales lied to Congress (remember, that is impeachable all by itself); and finally, Mari goes to the White House and gives the President a handwritten piece of her mind. Her mother, who failed to give LBJ a piece of her mind decades ago, is very proud.

It’s been far too long since I said “Thank You.”

Like all websites, I would be nowhere without referrers: search sites that have indexed my work; communities where I am a member and have a listed profile that includes my web address; sites that have added me to their link-lists, with or without reciprocation; and most importantly, people who have taken the time and effort to link to me and say “Check This Out.”

Today I would like to take a few minutes to say “Thank You!” to some of the people and websites without whom most of you would never have known I was here.

This includes — in no particular order! — Flea at One Good Thing, Cynthia C at Shorty Stories, Jill at Brilliant At Breakfast, all my colleagues and co-authors over at Central Sanity, the wonderful people at The Moderate Voice, Maya’s Granny at her eponymous site, NYC Educator at his self-named site, Robaato Bureedi, er Robert Brady at Pureland Mountain, Elisa Camahort once, twice, three times, four times! (busy lady!), Bradford Plumer, and finally (at least for today’s list) Dean Paxton of Paxtonland. With a list like this, you will have to forgive me if I have forgotten somebody.

Thank you!

Go check them out!

Fly like an Eagle

Many of you — well those of you who have read the “About” page anyway — know that until recently I lived in a town North of Seattle. Relatively few of you knew that I lived in a little seaside town known for its ferry landing and lighthouse, nestled next to a small city called Everett. In my back yard you could see dozens of bird species alone over the course of a year, and if you watched carefully while driving around town, it was really not unusual to see Bald Eagles. One nesting pair lived near a friend of mine, another pair lived a mile or so down the road in the woods that bordered the airport.

By airport, I do not mean a little hunk of tarmac where a dozen guys keep their private planes. When you hear that a major foreign dignitary or high-ranking federal official is in Seattle, chances are they landed at this airport, Paine Field. This facility was used for military aircraft in World War II, and is capable of landing, servicing, and allowing departure of Boeing’s biggest jets.

Did I mention that the Boeing factory — the biggest building in the world — was across the highway?

And now your memory is jogged about where you have heard of Everett, Washington: the parade of news and events surrounding the unveiling of the 787 Dreamliner. All this on the amusing date of 7/8/07. Oh, and don’t forget the plane that makes the Dreamliner possible, the gargantuan transport plane called the Dreamlifter. I’m glad they finally got around to putting company colors on that thing; I last saw it in the green primer Boeing uses. Why, it was just almost enough to make me nostalgic. Yes, the sky can really be that blue over Seattle.

Now don’t get me wrong, I do not miss being able to hear Boeing bench-testing new engines, and I can’t honestly say I miss hearing planes every day, even though they were nifty to look at (and the oldest, niftiest planes were generally the loudest). But I can say from a position of authority that newer Boeing hardware such as the 737 and 777 are a lot quieter (and almost certainly more efficient) than older hardware like the 707 and 727. I suspect that the hype is correct that the 787 will be the quietest, most fuel efficient plane they have built to date.

It isn’t just the locals that are excited about the plane. The company already has well over 600 pre-orders, set to begin delivering next year. If you can’t afford to buy one, you can just lease it for a mere $1,000,000 per month.

No surprise that MSNBC/CNBC sent Phil LeBeau out to talk about it on and off all day, and certainly no surprise that Boeing stock ended up on the day yesterday.

I bet traffic on the Speedway was simply insane.

In closing: the Man who Wouldn’t Go Away; sorting us further into haves and have-nots, experts claim the Registered Traveler system speeds up lines, but don’t mention that the extra capacity could be used to speed everyone along; it turns out we can blame Blackwater for Fallujah; follow up, it turns out that more jobs were created that involve the phrase “How can I help you” last month than the total net job creation number; be sure to let your Congresscritters know where you stand on health insurance for children, but I personally think it’s a Good Thing; one of my favorite writers, Dave Johnson, could use some donations; you don’t suppose that the same lousy diet rich in processed foods that has been making us fat might also be making us shorter, do you?; the press has noticed campaign fatigue; tough rhetoric with hard numbers from handy scorecards of where the presidential candidates stand on healthcare; Brad Plumer gives us cleaning up China; and finally, Canada declares Santa must be Canadian, sends ships to “assert sovereignty” (and presumably collect taxes), but hey at least the elves get National Health and CBC.

Jobs Jobs Everywhere, Maybe

Friday, the official employment numbers came out, and economists have been arguing about what they mean since then. According to the BLS, there were 132,000 new jobs added to the economy in June, and a revised gain of 190,000 from a previously reported 157,000 in May, and a gain of 122,000 instead of 80,000 in April. Also, “modest” gains in wages, “modest” economic growth, and steady unemployment at 4.5%. Now, please remember that most economists agree that it takes 150,000 to 200,000 new jobs per month to just keep up with new people joining the workforce. Oh, and let’s not forget that May and June are the months when young people leaving school are seeking full time employment.

According to Reuters, “Strong jobs growth bodes well for economy”. However, Max of Max Speaks points out that those young people I was talking about actually have sharply declining employment rates. He does not go on to rub our noses in the fact that these young people without jobs do not count in the unemployment rate because they did not lose full time jobs. This item from economist Dean Baker points out that employment rates among workers aged 25-54 has been steadily dropping too. That is a huge demographic! He concludes:

It is very difficult to think of any reason why hundreds of thousands of prime age workers (both men and women, the declines are roughly equal) would suddenly drop out of the labor market, other than limited job opportunities. While this situation is not disastrous, the data on EPOPS is not consistent with a strong labor market.

Ouch, logic hurts.

The Center for American Progress goes so far as to say that the current levels of job growth look good because of “diminished expectations”. Via Brad DeLong we have Fed may be questioning labor-market tightness, which again points out that “The low unemployment rate reflects in part a recent drop in the ‘participation rate’ — the share of working-age people either on the job or looking for work….” This article and several others are quoted by the Angry Bear — oh my I can’t imagine what his biases might be! — who points out that the job gains are largely sector driven, and the wage gains reported not really worth reporting. He even asks “Did they outsource their reporting to Lawrence Kudlow?”

The short version of the story is that more and more economists are losing their rose-colored glasses, putting away the Kool Aid, and really looking at the economy.

In closing: Star Trek: Hidden Frontier; I hope to say more about the upcoming debate about farm subsidies this week; the BBC reports that the Navy is saying maybe something bad did happen in Falluja; Sara Taylor, political football in the Battle Royale between Executive Authority and Congressional Subpoena; amazing how “tax and spend” a libertarian leaning conservative becomes when he faces the hard truth that somebody has to pay to keep roads moving; a handy timeline of dangerous Chinese products in 2007, broken down by month, is a lot longer than you would think; and finally, CNN reports on the Kami-kaze legacy.

The thing about secrets is that they’re secret.

Today, a split Appeals Court ruled that the ACLU can’t sue to stop the Bush Administration from using secret warrantless wiretaps because they can’t prove their clients were actually wiretapped. For those of you who may have forgotten, this is the very same wiretap program that Mr. Gonzales thought was so important it was worth bothering Mr. Ashcroft in his hospital bed to try and get it authorized while the fellow was on plenty of pain medication. At the risk of stating the bleeding obvious, the point of secret wiretaps is collecting information without anybody knowing.

The court’s ruling — unless overruled by the Supreme Court — means that some people will have to prove they have been a victim harmed by this program before a new suit is brought. This is of course almost impossible to prove. Just about the only way to do so beyond a reasonable doubt is to have evidence from such surveillance used against them in court; that will never happen because even a lousy lawyer will think to ask about the search warrant, and any judge will agree that there really should have been one. Oh that pesky Fourth Amendment!

All of which brings us to the point that we really should all be able to agree on: if this program were really about catching terrorists, they would seek FISA warrants. This can be done up to three days after the fact, completely dismantling any “ticking time bomb” argument that could possibly be made. And if it isn’t about catching terrorists, what exactly is it about? Who exactly are they listening to? Why?

Oh, and many thanks to Pete Abel for nominating me a Thinking Blogger. I am going to have to give some serious consideration to who makes me think, because frankly just because I enjoy somebody’s writing doesn’t mean they make me think.

In closing: the Center is Progressive; great post (by another “Thinking Blogger”) about how a school is like the military (except of course we hope there are fewer weapons in school); even Apple Geeks has something political to say; one woman’s account of being Broke (and part two); is Net Neutrality dead?; there are more contractors than American soldiers in Iraq, and that’s without counting “security” contractors like Blackwater; you can teach a kid that fruits and veggies are good for him, but you may have to bribe him to eat them; Max says it best; some people are so scared of universal health that they want to make you think it causes doctors to become terrorists??; on freedom; and finally, this item on airline delays being worse if you actually care when the passenger arrives makes this item on CPI not accounting for degaded quality even more horrifying. Have a great weekend; I’ll be thinking about who makes me think.

Update: the Chicago Tribune headline incorrectly says this ruling means domestic wiretaps are “ok” when in fact, all they are ruling on is that the plaintiffs did not have any evidence that they were a target of the program, and thus had no “damages”, or a legal reason to sue. I personally like the quote from Senator “Go **** Yourself” Leahy towards the end: “The court’s decision is a disappointing one that was not made on the merits of the case, yet closed the courthouse doors to resolving it.” Somehow he managed to distill the whole situation into one sentence.

WTF??????

Ladies and Gentlemen, if you are a citizen of the United States of America (as opposed to the United States of George and Dick) prepare to be outraged. You will be in good company.

Scooter Libby has had his sentence commuted. Hours after a unanimous appeals court said he has to start serving his sentence immediately because they don’t think he has a snowball’s chance of winning an appeal , the President himself swooped in, usurping the authority of the Judiciary, and said Scooter can make do with fines and probation.

Oh but wait there’s more. Just go ahead and try to call the White House to let them know your opinion. They’ve decided not to answer the phones for the rest of the day. Frankly I think they’ll use the holiday — oh the irony — as an excuse not to answer the phone until next week.

So the President can’t afford to let Scooter go to jail? Fascinating! Couldn’t even wait to quietly handle this after the 2008 elections, like most normal Presidents? Sure he has the legal authority to do this, but the jury has yet to convene on the ethical authority. By doing this, the President has said in essence I am above the law, and it’s ok to out a spy as long as you are just following my orders.

Guess what, folks? It’s time for a civil suit. And please remember that it is now a well established legal fact that the President can be forced to testify in a civil suit. Maybe the Clinton-haters cut off their nose to spite their face.

So we can’t call the White House. But we can call Congress. According to these guys you can reach them toll free at 888-818-6641, 888-355-3588, 800-426-8073, 800-828-0498 and 800-SOB-USOB. We can call Harry, and we can call Nancy (Sweetie? You’d better have an inaugural gown in mind), and we can leave irate emails and faxes and voicemails for our Congressmen and Senators.

Well?? Get on it!

Oh, but it does matter to you.

I had finished working out when the nice lady on CNBC was talking about sub-prime mortgages, and noted with surprise something to the effect of “while you would expect sub-primes to mostly be in poor neighborhoods, in fact many turn out to be in some of the overheated housing markets that are currently experiencing downturns.” For example, places like Los Angeles and Las Vegas.

Now, the only thing that surprised me was her surprise. Part of the point of a bubble — any bubble — is that people buy and spend more than they can afford on fear that it will be even more expensive if they wait. It should be no shock that in the housing market, this meant many buyers would be turning to creative financing options. Aided and abetted by compliant appraisers and the market for mortgage backed securities — entities like Fannie Mae and Bear Stearns buying mortgages from the company that originally made the loan — this extra supply of buyers who otherwise could not afford to be in the market at all were helping maintain rising prices.

Now those buyers have to get out. Some are selling, which is contributing to a notable 5% increase in housing inventory, when inventory has been relatively stable for decades. Those who cannot get out are defaulting, and ending up in foreclosure. In some relatively small suburban neighborhoods, four or five banks own dozens of now-vacant houses.

Now, if you really want to know more about whether there is a housing bubble (I think there is regionally, maybe not nationally), and how it may be effecting the economy at large, your go-to man should be Dave Johnson over at Seeing the Forest. Even if I am correct about housing bubbles being regional, the fallout will be national.

Banks don’t want to own dozens of houses regionally or hundreds of houses nationally. That represents money tied up instead of working hard. And we aren’t talking about small, regional banks. We should be thankful for that, because a small bank would probably have to close if they had enough foreclosed property on the books. But the big, national banks that are involved want to get their money out. So they really have no choice but to sell for what they can get, hope to be even on the deal, and make profits elsewhere. Maybe they can raise the fees on your accounts again. They will certainly re-think loan standards. They will also be rethinking staffing levels both regionally and nationally. One major player, Bear Stearns, is at risk of takeover.

Neighbors don’t want empty houses sitting there, dragging down housing values that were too high to begin with, and attracting crime. They are going to have to live with lower housing values. This of course may put them in a pinch should they need any sort of refinancing, because they will need the house re-appraised and are unlikely to get approved for a loan high above the new, lower value of the house. And in some cases, the solution will involve a bulldozer.

All this action is going to reduce municipal tax bases. In short, there will be less money coming in for police, fire department, schools, roads, and the like. And good luck getting citizens to vote you a tax increase when their property has been decreasing in value.

And the people who have been forced out of their houses, either by sale or foreclosure? They still need an affordable place to live, close enough to their jobs that they can actually get there. Ultimately, the regional markets which are most effected are the ones where there are lots of jobs to be had, and for whatever reason (rent controls, geographical constraints) not quite enough housing for demand.

In closing, Carrie’s Nation is a very nice HR issues blog; even as we try to be more vigilant about Chinese imports, it’s hard to tell where food comes from (thanks to Big Agribusiness thwarting the rules), and in any event almost impossible to actually avoid Chinese imports for a whole week; is “Bush Bluffing”, or will Leahy really take him to court?; Zombie New Orleans slowly stumbles back to life; healthcare facts and figures versus the tricks of delightfully overheated rhetoric; in honor of Blog Against Theocracy week, some scary guys who think the First Amendment only protects their right to be whatever sort of Christian they want; and finally, not everybody gets LOLcats, “Well, they can’t spell very well. Because, see, they’re cats.”

Cross-posted at Central Sanity

An Apple a Day Keeps Meredith Vieira Away

If you haven’t been living in a cardboard box, you probably know that the iPhone is finally being released today. In fact, tough luck if you need to talk to somebody at the Apple Store between 2 and 6 today, as the store will be closed and employees prepping for the big roll-out. This little gadget has features that can briefly be described as everything but the kitchen sink. Some people are calling it the Jesus Phone, and others point out that there is a whole lot of hype, and really low chances of really being that good. Some commentators make this point more formally than others.

But before you get ready to camp outside the Apple Store, before you think about hiring some troll to do it for you, do yourself a favor and spend a few minutes watching the trouble Meredith Vieira has using it as, you know, a phone. I apologize in advance for the fact that you will need to watch a 30 second commercial first. Notice that this happened despite the fact that Apple sent a couple technicians along to make sure everything went right (and maintain physical security of the devices). If you have time, stick around to watch Stephen Levy demonstrate the cool features — and accidentally demonstrate that this phone will not do for many handicapped people. Sorry, “just move your hand like this” is a stretch for some people, no pun intended.

Before any of you Apple Cultists start on about how clearly I am not the target audience, I own a smartphone. Apple has claimed this device competes with smartphones. I have every important phone number I could need in my phone, including the Chinese restaurant that used to be on the way home. I have calendar events. I use the web browser to find information when I am out and about. I send text messages. Most importantly, I make phone calls — the one thing Ms. Vieira has demonstrated is a little difficult on this device. You know what I don’t do? I don’t browse my music collection on my phone. I don’t watch TV shows on my phone. In short, I need a phone with smart features; I don’t need a video iPod with a phone accessory.

Assuming they meet demand, assuming they can possibly meet their targets, I give it 6 months before rumors of bad batteries start to surface. And I’m willing to bet that’s expensive to replace.

In closing: it turns out the other shoe in this fake Botox scam dropped back in 2004; why does the United States want to keep information on travelers active for 7 years, and inactive 8 years beyond that?; it turns out that it’s mostly private dollars rebuilding New Orleans; the Supreme Court remembers that the First Amendment gives the people the right to recourse in the courts and doesn’t give Congress the right to say otherwise; and your brain on politics. Oh, and Maya’s Granny having her one year anniversary of blogging has reminded me that I’ve been at this 4 whole years now. Some of my favorite posts include I can vouch for him, Evil, these early ideas on tax simplification, practical advice on school programs, and the Dragon and the Tiger.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

To Your Health

I have two health-related items to share with you today.

The first is about the sun. Yesterday was the Solstice — that’s the day with the most sunlight all year (in the Northern Hemisphere, anyway) — and many people are engaging in outdoor activities. Sunscreen is vitally important if you are going to be outside during daylight hours, and that advice applies to kids as well as adults. Unfortunately, not all sunscreens are created equal, and some “either fall short of their claims or contain unsafe ingredients….” So what is a sun-conscious consumer to do? We already read labels and look for protection against both UVA and UVB, we look at the active ingredients, yet the label may be wrong!

Luckily, there is a new website in town that has done the important work of figuring out what the labels actually mean, and what the products actually do. You can find their summary here.

The second item is about new reports showing that hormone treatments for menopausal women maybe aren’t as bad for you as was feared a few years ago, and there are new guidelines reflecting that thinking. One thing that I will point out that I suspect you will not see mentioned elsewhere is that what modern medicine calls “Hormone Replacement Therapy” or HRT is actually Hormone Substitution Therapy. If you want the super long with a hundred pages of footnotes version, you’ll want to read this book. The 60-second summary is that human hormones can’t be patented, so drug companies make synthetic hormones out of things like horse pee that they can patent, except it’s not quite as good for you. If there is an interest in some middle ground of additional info, leave a comment and I will reply with some web resources.

In closing: Larry Kudlow is not better than Ezra; by way of follow up, Hillary and the Left; an article connecting the dots between the USDA, big Agriculture, and our ever bigger butts; a petition from Candlelighters; new CAFE standards (which aren’t law until the President signs them so keep your fingers crossed) would require both cars and SUVs to get 35 MPG by… say they didn’t mention a year; it looks like Dick Cheney thinks he’s above the law, Congressman replies Are Not! (ok, he puts it nicer than that); results of the Schneier movie plot contest; who knew Sci-Fi Heaven was in Riverside, CA; and Japan’s Agency for Cultural Affairs is kind enough to give us the 50 best anime of all time.