This morning, I was listening to NPR. During one segment, they discussed the conflicting job creation numbers cited by Mr. Kerry and Mr. Bush as they slog through the last week of vicious campaigning before election day. Mr. Bush claims there have been 1.9 million jobs created on his watch, while Mr. Kerry contends that millions of jobs have been lost in this administration. The NPR interviewer asked an expert which of these figures is correct.
The expert replied basically that both were, depending which set of figures were used and when you start counting. Bush used the household survey — calling a random sample of Americans on the phone and asking if they are working — and begins counting in August of 2003. After all, he says, 9/11 happened and economists’ opinions aside, you can’t blame him for jobs lost because of that. Of course Reuters is kind enough to point out that the 1.9 million jobs also counts jobs expected to be created through February of 2005.
Mr. Kerry, on the other hand, starts counting at the beginning of the Bush Administration. After all, the buck stops there, right? Furthermore, he uses the employment survey — which most economists prefer because it asks companies exactly how many people are on the payroll. It doesn’t count illegal workers or contractors, but there you are.
The NPR interviewer then asked which number voters should be paying attention to. My answer is neither. The number you need to pay attention to is 6.75 million. That is the number: the absolute bare minimum number of jobs that should have been created in the 45 months and counting of the Bush Administration just to keep up with new people entering the workforce. Those 6.75 million people don’t count in the big unemployment number. They can’t collect unemployment benefits because they never had jobs.
If you are one of those “undecided” voters, here is a handy rundown of official positions on various issues. Please keep in mind that sometimes what they say is not necessarily what they mean.