Aggregating Reality

Some people like to have one or two primary, presumably trustworthy news source from which they derive the overwhelming majority of their information about the world. Maybe they watch one particular news show, or read one particular newspaper. I prefer to consult as many sources as I can get my hands on. I feel this mitigates any bias that might be inherent in a single source. I also feel this gives me a much better feel for “the big picture.” Thank goodness for Google news and RSS readers.

Oh yeah, and I occasionally read the Sunday Paper.

And that is how I came to a startling discovery. When even Dave Barry thinks the Budget Deficit is a concern, we are all in trouble.

Also from the morning paper, evidence that if there is a housing bubble, it is real close to going off. Low income housing is increasingly hard to find Oh, and getting harder to find thanks to the Bush Administration. The ability to find affordable housing is even more strained in areas where real estate has already been expensive, such as Southern California.

This is one singular area where I think Fannie Mae is actually helping keep prices from accelerating even more rapidly, by regulating the maximum loan amount they will repurchase from other lenders.* If you want to finance more than this amount, you will have to either break it into multiple mortgages, or get a “super jumbo” (or “non-conforming”) mortgage. Because the mortgage holder can’t sell this debt to someone like Fannie Mae, you will pay a higher interest rate. So, by saying they won’t buy a mortgage of more than $333,700, and assuming you have a 20% down-payment, they are effectively putting a lid of $417,125 on housing prices in most areas. There is also anecdotal evidence that appraisers are helping put a lid on housing prices by refusing to rubber-stamp high valuations. Yes, they are saying “that house is not worth that much money,” and mortgage companies are refusing to put in a first mortgage for more than the appraiser says it is worth.

Finally, a follow-up. I said months ago that high-handed TSA tactics would result in more business charter flights, more privately owned aircraft, and less traditional air travel. From the New York Times: “The number of corporate jet flights is on the rise as the economy rebounds, in planes owned by major corporations or shared through fractional ownership, sold somewhat like time-share condominiums. And manufacturers of private planes are planning new “microjets” — small, relatively cheap planes designed for flying at the altitudes, if not the speeds, of the big airliners.”

In summary, Private Jet ownership is up. The three big players appear to be Bombardier, Raytheon, and Cessna, but it seems like there is plenty of room for an upstart, particularly one that can offer some economic advantage.

* What does this mean? Well, when Local Bank of America sells their mortgages to someone like Fannie Mae, that frees up money they can loan to someone else, making a nice origination fee in the process. Fannie Mae will still get all the money, but they may have to wait 30 years until the loan is paid off. Search my site for “Fannie Mae” to get more links and information.