Seriously, some people need to be told not to quit their jobs while trying to get a mortgage. Everything you need to know about getting a mortgage in this week’s Getting REAL (Estate) in Vegas, starring me with special guest Kari Phillips of Southern Fidelity Mortgage.
In closing: Shut up and take it like a man, says the President; priorities; new Fiats; more extortion; Direct Instruction works; sounds like the setup for a blasphemous joke; Schneier; depression; and reconstructed.
Mark my words, by Monday some parent will be insisting that outdoor recess be abolished as “too dangerous.” The argument will be nothing more than “What if something like this happens again?? Better safe than sorry!”
But before we start herding all the children into the gymnasium, let’s look at some facts. According to these guys, there are over 38,000,000 elementary school students in the United States. The nice folks at the Census (plus my pocket calculator) say it’s only 37,811,132. For simplicity’s sake, let’s just say 38 million. This doesn’t include high school students.
Now then, how many students have been injured by guns at an elementary school? This is sufficiently rare that a Google search for “elementary school gun” turns up a collection of stories of kids expelled for having guns, toy guns, water guns, BB guns, stories of gun scares, etc.. Add the word “injured” and yesterday’s item fills most of the first page. If we go to Wikipedia’s page on “school shootings”, we find that in the last three years exactly 34 people have been killed in school shootings, including incidents on college campuses and high schools, including faculty and other adult victims. In fact, there have only been 27 school shooting incidents on elementary, middle, junior high, and grade school campuses in the United States ever, including yesterday.
So, we have a literal less than one in a million chance of being shot at school. You have more chance of dying today in a car wreck than being involved in a school shooting ever.
By way of contrast, an American child has a one in 3 chance of being overweight or obese, putting them at increased risk of diabetes, heart disease, sleep apnea, cancer, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and a host of other life shortening problems.
You want to play the “won’t somebody think of the children” card? Send them outside for recess. Let them go play.
In Closing: Could you pass the citizenship test?; People other than me are calling the foreclosure mess fraud (perhaps the BAMTOR Principle will crumble and people will go to prison?); if everybody eats there then how come I never see them?; disconnected; demented; decline of business casual (it’s all your fault!); and smell like a monster.
Taken at Clark High School in Las Vegas.
In Closing: Foreclosure mess (update, Bank of America has halted all foreclosures nationwide); new 300 year old Vivaldi concerto; progressive agenda; we have to be better; I hope the FDIC bankrupts these [redacted]; always check your work; on Afghanistan; 30% of unemployed have been out of work for at least a year, and the number of jobs in the economy went down last month (no wonder bankruptcies are up); good idea; speaking of food stamps; “none of the above“; new style CPR; sometimes it’s how you say it; and cell phones don’t and can’t cause cancer (“physics shows that it is virtually impossible for cell phones to cause cancer”).
Oh and one more thing! Surf over to Vegas Video Network to see my new show later today!
This week, there’s been quite a buzz in education. Or perhaps it just seems that way since we have a new Superintendent of Schools in Clark County Nevada.
So lets start with President Obama feeling that part of the problem is that many schools are using outdated textbooks. Has basic reading or math changed recently? Will your child be laughed at for using an outdated form of Algebra? Sure, our understanding of science changes all the time. And foreign languages evolve — Latin excepted. As for history, does it matter inasmuch as they will never get to the last chapter anyway?
The same day, E. D. Hirsch argued that the new educational standards we are trying to formulate won’t amount to a hill of beans without a good curriculum to ensure that kids actually learn it. He’s an expert in both education and cultural literacy with a bibliography longer than my arm, so ignore him at your peril.
One problem with education is that the people who teach the teachers how to teach are failing to address the basics: things like classroom management and how to effectively meet the objectives of reforms like standardized testing. Or, “how to keep a job as a teacher.” In fact,”only 49 percent believe state governments should adopt the ‘same set of standards and give the same tests in math, science, and reading nationwide.'” Sorry professor. Colleges and modern employers expect a high school graduate to know certain things.
In Closing: Rest in Peace Tony Curtis; Happy Birthday Hoover Dam; health insurance changes; it’s not over ’til the crazy lady sings; I’ll have Honda on asphalt with mayo; Erik Scott leads to ch-ch-ch-changes; you can’t have both; on Social Security and Women; Kohl‘s is creating jobs (that’s more like it); why it’s a “bad thing” for household debt to decline (if you are an economist); once more the rich get richer; Dear Ben Stein, stop whining; worker’s health costs to rise 12% next year; and maybe the reason it “seems” that Americans don’t want jobs as migrant farm workers is that they don’t speak Spanish, don’t have “tractor skills” and like coming home to their families every night (certainly a barrier for single parents!). But we would rather pretend that it’s because we uppity high school and college grads are too good for back-breaking labor in an environment where only lip-service is given to labor laws.
In a way I wish I had waited until today to write The BAMTOR Principle. By some weird coincidence a bunch of other people have also noticed that Banks Always Make Their Own Rules that don’t necessarily have anything to do with the law. It turns out that many people knew that Wall Street was selling mortgage backed securities that were destined to fail. But what HuffPo didn’t bother to point out is that what those banks and brokerages did was in violation of the law. This blatant double standard — “laws are for little people” — will continue until the Feds start putting people in jail, levying huge fines against individuals who signed off on breaking the law, and states sue for the right to prosecute violations of state law.
In light of this, the banksters have the chutzvah to say that breaking up “too big to fail” institutions would create more risk. Yeah, more risk for their jobs.
As far as the economy goes, it turns out that 74% of Americans agree with me that regardless of what the government says about GDP, we are still in a recession. It’s getting more obvious that the numbers are being gamed. But don’t expect any administration in the near future to start talking about what inflation, unemployment, and GDP really are, because then we would all understand what deep doo-doo we are standing in and probably vote a lot of bums out.
Of course you need to be careful about voting bums out, as Christine O’Donnell and Nevada’s own Sharron Angle illustrate. Congruent Angle? Sorry I’m running out of Angle jokes.
And that brings me to an armload of local interest items. Let’s start with the spectacular view from the Cosmopolitan. Down the Strip a little bit, be careful about sitting by the pool at CityCenter’s Vdara, or you may experience their unique “death ray.” If you are planning on getting off the Strip, you will want to at least look over these amusing tips. One of the restaurants I visit regularly has been reviewed again, and I only recognize two of the things they were served. I haven’t talked a lot about it, but I am keeping an eye on the case of Erik Scott, killed in broad daylight by Metro in front of a Costco in one of our most yuppified neighborhoods. By the way, last week’s CSI did a great job of addressing it and not addressing it.
In Closing: electromagnetic spectrum; lies your teachers told you; cheap food costs dear; abortion does not have dire emotional consequences; Israel cannot have its cake and eat it too; people don’t like health insurance reform because it didn’t go far enough!; True Mud; a few words on taxes; Professor DeLong nails the Republican view of America; have we tried the simple stuff first?; Jack LaLanne is 96 (was I the only one who noticed Drew Carey’s homage in the blue “speed suit”?); and medical ignorance.
San Bruno: Admittedly, before this tragic explosion, San Bruno was mostly a BART stop to me. But one thing is very clear to me: we have got to stop waiting until bridges collapse and pipelines explode to make sure our infrastructure is in adequate condition! And here’s a little hint to politicians: You actually have to hire people to build and repair things like pipelines, roads, and bridges. Better yet, quality infrastructure makes it easier for the private sector to create jobs when these projects are completed! By the way, did anybody notice that PG&E are only committing to paying up if it is found to be their fault? Um yeah, I think Allstate and State Farm will see to it that they pay. Here’s video of the explosion taken at a nearby gas station.
Health Insurance Reform isn’t over yet: Premiums are still rising quite a lot faster than inflation, and insurers claim that this is because they are paying out more money (probably because certain shady practices had to be stopped). Meanwhile, there is one provision that must get changed. However, the Senate failed twice today to get it passed. Under an obscure provision — that has nothing whatsoever to do with health care — small businesses would be forced to issue 1099 forms to any vendor with whom they purchased more than $600 worth of goods. Somehow it is claimed that this would raise $17,000,000,000 in taxes. I just can’t see how that works. After all, I get receipts from my brokerage and local NAR chapter documenting how much I paid them; why is my sending them notice that I indeed paid what they admit I paid going to generate money for anybody but my accountant?
On the Federal Budget and the Deficit thereof: So those bad old Tax-And-Spend Liberals managed to reduce the deficit 13%, with control of Congress (although their “control” of the Senate is a strange thing). At least Tax-And-Spend Liberals know you ought to have money before spending it. But do you think any Democrats are going to point this out on the campaign trail? Probably not. By the way, I can’t understand why CNN thinks it’s newsworthy that the Federal Budget isn’t done yet. This has happened pretty much every year for as long as I can remember. Of course the budget deficit would shrink quite a bit if we just let the Tax Cuts For People Who Don’t Need More Money expire. Even Moody’s says that giving the rick a tax break doesn’t do jack for the economy, and they’re paid to figure this stuff out. Frankly, if the only way to make that happen is to accept higher taxes myself next year, so be it. Let me get my damn checkbook.
A Few Items on Education: School breakfasts are the coming trend (couldn’t they eat something more healthy than sugary cereal and whole wheat donuts? Sorry it’s still deep fried cake). David Sirota on the educational bait and switch that has left our students unfit to do much more than putter on computers and pour lattes. Why college grads can’t write despite employers begging for literate employees that can write a freaking memo. And more than you really wanted to know about student loans.
A Few Items on Banking and Financial Reform: It looks like the international community is telling us that we will tighten up regs whether banks and Congress and Bernanke likes it or not. However, the holes in the regs look remarkably like cheese from the region where the rules are even now being hammered out. Meanwhile, the SEC is trying to prevent financial firms from hiding their debt. Funny, we’re still having this issue how many years after Enron? Meanwhile, it looks like President Obama is actually going to do the right thing and put in a recess appointment for Elizabeth Warren as head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. That means there is a chance things will be done that favor Joe Average above the Banksters. Oh and one more thing: if banks are failing to pay the feds back, why exactly aren’t the feds foreclosing on their worthless hides?
Cops Hate Dogs: It amazes me that someone who is sworn to protect the people can have such a low regard for living beings. One must wonder if they even respect human life.
“But that’s a nose in the middle of your face!”: Even CNN is pointing out that simply assuming people are physically able to work until they are 70 is an unrealistic plan for “saving” Social Security.
Silver Lining on the Economy is just Aluminum Foil: The wage gap between men and women is shrinking. My take is that the bean-counters figure it’s more cost effective to lay off the high-wage man than the underpaid woman, with the long term effect being that wages in general are lower when it comes time to hire again.
It’s still Sugar: High Fructose Corn Syrup is being re-branded as “corn sugar.” That doesn’t change the fact that most research says it’s not good for you.
If you build it, they might come: It turns out that Fiats may be returning to the states. That is, if certain Chrysler dealers build special showrooms for them.
Just about 5 years ago, I wrote this:
It is my theory that beneath certain levels, low interest rates do not stimulate the economy. There are several factors which combine to this result: First, when rates are very low, there is no incentive for lenders to extend credit to individuals and companies. Since the available rate of return is so low, they would rather take the sure thing on government bonds. Housing lending has continued partly because there is a real asset involved, and partly because such loans can be sold to aggregators such as Fannie Mae. [edit: this was before the housing bubble burst; the last sentence isn’t entirely true any more.]
Second, when interest rates are very low, corporate borrowers — who are supposed to be goaded into action by super low rates — are mindful that the Powers That Be feel the economy is lousy. It is a bad idea to incur debts and invest in infrastructure when the economy is lousy. What will the stockholders say? What cash they do have they will sit on until the moment is right [edit: leaving them in a position to, say, buy out a competitor who imprudently overspent]. After all, if the economy is lousy, they may well need the cash cushion. As for loans, they will wait for some kind of signal that things are improving — an increase in interest rates, maybe — before calling for cash.
Finally, the third leg of the economic table, Joe and Jane Average do not experience added liquidity. While the banks are more than happy to lend them money for concrete things like houses and cars, the banks are reluctant to lend them cash for things that have a lasting impact on the economy. They can’t get cash to start a business (or to help along their existing business) because it’s too risky — for the bank, that is.
Here we are, 5 years later. The Fed Funds Rate has been 0-0.25% for two years. That means banks are able to borrow essentially free money, and have been for two years! Mortgage rates did rise this week, after 12 weeks of declines and record lows, including the lowest rates since this data has been tracked. Under traditional economic theory, all kinds of growth should be stimulated!
So where’s the jobs that should be created by all this stimulation? Oh, right.
The truth is that monetary policy can’t fix what’s really wrong with our economy: banks and businesses we won’t admit are really failing; a workforce that can neither take advantage of job opportunities in other regions nor start small businesses because their houses have lost so much value as to leave them underwater; businesses that pay millions upon millions to executives and stockholders while paying as little as possible to laborers here, overseas, and/or illegal; tax and regulatory policies that encourage bad corporate behavior; a still-broken health insurance system that discourages hiring and will soon force all of us to pay tribute to profitable insurance companies; a failure to manufacture much of anything that somebody somewhere in the world would want.
But it gets worse. Those super low interest rates create one more problem for our economy. It punishes people who are trying to prudently save money for retirement, college, or just a rainy day. A side effect of this is that the Social Security Trust Fund is also getting low rates on their investments — which directly impacts the future of the system and gives future seniors a double-whammy even if they do everything “right.” Further, the low interest rates encourage people (and the government) to borrow money they might have a hard time paying back. While this might boost the economy in the short run, in the long run it’s just a longer bit of rope with which to hang.
Interest rates must rise. Bernanke must stop hiding the fact that some banks are already busted without effectively no-interest loans from the Fed. Institutions that are not solvent or are “too big to fail” must be broken up and turned into organizations that serve their customers. Investors must own up to the fact that their Mortgage Based Securities are worth no more than 70% of the face value and allow homes to be properly valued. Tax code must encourage corporations to spend money instead of hoarding it. And there must be incentives to hiring people here for decent wages, and better yet making something here that can be sold and exported. Let’s stop pretending we can build an economy on cheap credit and lattes.
In Closing: pants; T-shirts; it’s more intellectually honest than Megan’s Law; school reform hasn’t done much for learning; people with a prescription for painkillers might have painkillers in the house; and am I the only person with a tape measure in her bag?
Yesterday, Mayor Daley the Younger of Chicago — not to be confused with his father — announced that he would not seek a 7th term in office. Quicker than most people can eat a Chicago-style hot dog, speculation began that Rahm Emanuel would run for the position. This speculation is serious enough that even CNN is speculating about who might replace Mr. Emanuel as White House Chief of Staff.
My answer? Is James Baker available?
I kid of course. But the point remains that leaving the White House would be the best thing to happen for the Obama Administration, even if President Obama doesn’t know it. Mr. Emanuel is the biggest problem facing the Democratic Party today, alienating core constituencies by saying stuff like “F*** the UAW” and completely ignoring the grass-roots support that got his boss elected. He’s a symptom of a faux-populist White House that gives half-measures on everything and then wonders how come nobody is happy with the half-assed results.
Seriously. Run, Rahm, Run! Get your tuchus out of Washington and back to Chicago, where that kind of “Because I’m in charge and said so” politics actually works. It’s the best thing for everybody.
I wanted to embed this, but it’s disabled. Try this version instead:
In Closing: low Vitamin D levels linked to heart failure and schizophrenia; bike helmets; antibiotic beer; caught evolving; more people might vote if there were better candidates; instant karma; rich people sure are different; how to save Social Security; how to study; War is Over??; on Craigslist; infrastructure is not a boondoggle; dumbass; Ms.; tuition; we know the economy sucks!; and let Isaiah Mustafa do your voicemail message. On a horse.
Oh, and Happy New Year.
Mr/Ms Teacher:
As you are no doubt aware, each of your students has 5 other classes. Each of these classes has their own supply requirements, although some things like “pencils” and “notebook paper” are universal. There is only a 5 minute or so passing period between your class and the previous or next class. While it seems like many schools are set up with an area dedicated to students at one particular grade, the fact remains that some of your students will have classes in another part of the building (such as gym, choir, art, or foreign language) and not have an opportunity to visit their respective lockers during some passing periods. Furthermore, it is highly likely that a student might have homework in multiple subjects, requiring that quite a few things be taken home.
These are things that I would have thought obvious to a professional in your position. However, it seems clear that some teachers have not considered the idea that students might have no choice but to carry supplies for multiple subjects at once. I can think of no other explanation for the extraordinary supply lists that have come home for the last several years, including fact that several of your colleagues each require a minimum 1″ binder, and a couple have required 2-3″ three ring binders.
Really? They need that much stuff for one class? Do you really think it’s important for them to carry around every scrap of paper issued in your class from now until June? Is every assignment, every graded quiz, every set of scribbled class notes of such critical importance? Can’t we use this opportunity to teach prioritization? Frankly, I didn’t need multiple 3″ binders per semester in graduate school!
Further, there is the issue of space and weight. These are still kids we are talking about. There is a finite amount of physical room in their book bags, and heaven forbid they should need to cram a book in there. Experts recommend that they put no more than 10-15% of their bodyweight in a backpack — including the weight of the bag itself. Let’s say for the sake of argument that these kids weigh the same 120 pounds I do. That means no more than 12-18 pounds. Have you considered putting your required supplies on a scale to see how much you are contributing to the load? The 500 sheets of paper that will fit in just one of those 3″ binders is 5 pounds alone.
Please understand that I don’t even want to address the expense of all these supplies despite the fact that 1 in 5 American workers is living paycheck to paycheck. I consider myself fortunate that I can just go out and get all this stuff without worrying about whether I can pay all my bills.
Just do parents a favor and think about the whole picture rather than your one class when preparing your list of required supplies.
In Closing: On illegal immigration: on the broken mess we euphemistically call an economy; the chicken sexers of Japan; why doesn’t Bernanke know??; insurance companies scramble to raise prices before somebody tries to institute price controls, results in people talking about price controls who weren’t before; I told you the mandate was a screw-job; shut up and do what you’re told, authority figures are the enemy, and other things we are inadvertently teaching children; energy; click for the first paragraph, stay for the rest; the first dinner party; the miracle farms of Brazil; and fast food.
That’s one expensive yearbook!
In closing: “Maybe we can get Yaphet Kotto to play Captain Picard”; inside Trader Joe’s; a criminally misleading article about what doctors make; investors are nervous; Japanfilter double feature, Space Cruiser Yamato and the truth about Kobe beef; banks still only follow laws that they want to follow; 5 fastest growing occupations (the top two paying jobs reflect a premium for people willing to work the overnight shift); orders for durable goods — things that last longer than a latte — are up a whopping 0.3%; Turn Off Fox; when you start calling the citizenry “a cow with 310 tits [sic]”, you shouldn’t hold down a government position; Direct Instruction is a little more complicated than “nuns in a classroom,” but his point is taken that it in fact works; the smartest thing on unemployment that you’re likely to read this week; “cut government spending… someplace else!”; the next Dalai Lama could be an attractive woman?; you’ve got the time, get out and vote; Righthaven is perfectly willing to go after bloggers, but not a Senate candidate; on American Apparel; mysterious heiress (Clark County, Nevada is named for her father); and finally, The Doctor is In.