Follow-up Friday on a Thursday

Remember Postcards from Africa? Well now “CARE, one of the world’s biggest charities, is walking away from about $45 million a year in federal funding, saying American food aid is not only plagued with inefficiencies, but may hurt some of the very poor people it aims to help.”

I’ve written about Jose Padilla a number of times, but now that the verdict has come out, it is worth reading the Christian Science Monitor’s pre-sentencing thoughts and Andrew Sullivan’s initial observations, which he cautions are all he’s willing to say until he’s read some of the legal documents involved.

New research says fat is critical in a child’s diet, a fact which supports the story I pointed out last week about how “diet” foods aren’t good for kids. Elsewhere, we find that fat may not really be that bad for adults, either, when they eat it the way they would have eaten it tens of thousands of years ago. Maybe. The jury is still out on this one, and anecdotally, the fellow who went on the “all meat” diet described in the second page doesn’t seem to healthy to me, despite his claims that it was the broccoli he was forced to eat as a child that caused his problem.

It’s hard to seem like Joe Average common sense middle America while riding on Daddy’s yacht. He does look happy, though. You’d never know his approval ratings were so dismal. And you know, for an old guy, Bush 41 has some nice abs there. Maybe there’s something to not eating broccoli after all.

This isn’t following up on anything, really, but here’s OpenLeft’s First BlogPac Progressive Entrepreneurs Contest Winners. If you see something you are in a position to support, you will figure out what to do.

This week, judges have been hearing arguments on a lawsuit by AT&T customers against NSA warrantless wiretapping. I just love some of the comments and questions from the judges, including “Who decides whether something is a state secret or not?”, “What does ‘ultimate deference’ mean? Bow to it?”, and “Every ampersand, every comma is top-secret?”

Remember that US Attorney firing scandal? The one that Harriet Miers and later Karl Rove himself were ordered not to testify before Congress about? ABC News suspects it’s bigger than we now know.

As mortgage woes progress, we will see more Country Forclosures and City Forclosures.

Sometimes I don’t agree with Michael van der Galien, but when it comes to immigration we are on the same page:

This has nothing to do with racism, it is all about something called the Rule of Law. When people break the law they should be punished, it is that simple. One can migrate to America legally – if one chooses to move to America illegally it seems logical and fitting for one to be punished. Not only should the person who lives in America illegally be punished, those who make it possible for him or her to do so should be punished as well.

If there are roadblocks preventing hard-working, honest people from legally immigrating to this country, let’s fix it. But that’s not the issue; the issue is people who come here illegally and the people who hire them, also illegally.

I wonder why a law passed in 2005 was a CNN top story today? Hmm. They point out that “Americans may need passports to board domestic flights or to picnic in a national park next year if they live in one of the states defying the federal Real ID Act,” but neglect to mention that they would also need a passport to get into a federal building such as a courthouse, Social Security office, or IRS office. You see, I think that’s more important than having a picnic in a national park, personally. “Chertoff said the Real ID program is essential to national security because there are presently 8,000 types of identification accepted to enter the United States,” but what does that have to do with the movements of American citizens? Since when are people presenting “baptismal certificates from small towns in Texas” to get into Yellowstone? Chertoff also told the states “There’s going to be an irreducible expense that falls on you, and that’s part of the shared responsibility,” or suck it up. They go on to mention that “Applicants must bring a photo ID, birth certificate, proof of Social Security number and proof of residence, and states must maintain and protect massive databases housing the information,” but neglect to mention that anybody who does not go by the name on their birth certificate would need documents to support their current name. That means the overwhelming majority of married women will have to bring their marriage certificates to the DMV. Thankfully they will not have to bring a male relative too. Speaking of the DMV, CNN also fails to mention that increased load for the DMV will almost certainly mean longer lines and more waiting. But I love most these paragraphs near the end:

But, [Bill] Walsh [senior legal fellow for the Heritage Foundation] said, “any state that’s refusing to implement this key recommendation by the 9/11 Commission, and whose state driver’s licenses are as a result used in another terrorist attack, should be held responsible.” [snip]

Chertoff said there would be repercussions for states choosing not to comply.

“This is not a mandate,” Chertoff said. “A state doesn’t have to do this, but if the state doesn’t have — at the end of the day, at the end of the deadline — Real ID-compliant licenses then the state cannot expect that those licenses will be accepted for federal purposes.”

Or, you don’t have to, but then your citizens are screwed, and if there is a terrorist attack it will be all your fault!

And one last thing, about the TSA program to identify Bad Guys based on what they do; I can proudly say my opinion has not changed.

Mandatory Reading

If you are a human being, you have been in a relationship with another human being at some point in your life. Indeed, you are highly likely to have a relationship with another human being in the future.

You know people who are also human. Some of them are men; some of them are women. They also have relationships with other human beings.

And some of those relationships have something horribly wrong in them.

And that is why I am asking you to read this item on BlogHer entitled “Are you in an abusive relationship? How domestic violence touches us all.” Please, read it with an open mind, look at some of the links, and if you see anything that raises red flags in your life or the life of someone you know, read some more so you will know what to do.

That is all.

Oh wait, no, in closing 3 forces behind a market crash, economic blunders in post-Saddam Iraq, One Million Dead Iraqis in post-Saddam Iraq and counting, if we really have a shortage of tech workers how come wages for tech workers haven’t gone up? and finally, I kid you not, Extreme Ironing. Yes, that person carried an ironing board to the top of a semi-active volcano. To do some ironing. Some stuff you can’t make up.

Economy-Filter

Today I offer a quartet of items on the economy, granted skewed a bit “left.” Sorry, most of the “right” thinks there’s very little wrong with the economy. And I suppose as long as you don’t look at job creation too carefully, and ignore the number of people living in poverty (new figures on that coming out towards the end of the month, we’ll see if that number continues to go up), and don’t look at the number of people with no/inadequate health insurance when you talk about high total health care costs, and don’t wonder how prices of gold and other commodities can be this high with an official inflation number this low, and don’t wonder how corporate profits can continue to grow at a rate that dwarfs both inflation and GDP growth, the economy does look pretty good.

I was going to write about the sub-prime mess and how we got here, but Amanda Marcotte at Pandagon did a very nice short version of the problem so I will not reinvent the wheel. Adjustable Rate Mortgages are not the whole problem, even though I have been begging readers to refinance them for some time now; ARMs have their place (I even had one back in ’96, when it was clear that interest rates were going down).

The truth is there are two parts to this problem, one on the demand side and one on the supply side. As for the supply side, Ms. Marcotte pretty much nailed it: mortgage brokers wrote paper for people who really couldn’t afford it long term; the mortgage brokers didn’t care, because they were planning on turning around and selling the mortgage; if the homeowner was smart enough to realize he/she needed to refinance, their friendly mortgage broker gets to rinse and repeat; if not then the default is Somebody Else’s Problem. It is worth noting that “somebody else” could well be Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

That in turn brings me to Tim Iocono at The Mess That Greenspan Made, who lets us in on the secret that Freddie and Fannie are in no shape to bail out the system. Indeed they helped cause the problem, and are in need of “reform.”

More than hints and allegations, on the demand side of the equation, we have Ownership Society propaganda from a variety of sources including the White House — which specifically considers widespread home-ownership a goal. The head of the Cato Institute actually said “Seriously, [the Ownership Society] should be an emotional issue about liberty and opportunity, not solvency dates.” Forgive me, the biggest investment most Americans will ever make should not be “an emotional issue.” At times even Fannie Mae has been actively advertising the idea that everyone should own a house.* The Washington Post adds “The result has been a range of policies that promote homeownership while generally neglecting renters.”

I would like to specifically spell out the implication: the “housing bubble” and the sub-prime mess are two sides of one coin; without one, the other would not exist. Reduced mortgage standards and “alternative mortgage products” that reduce monthly payments allowed the customers who demanded them to spend way too much on a house. Without these products, buyers could not have paid inflated prices, and would have to save up an appropriate down-payment. Since saving money takes time (and the savings rate in this country has been lousy in recent years), this would have reduced the number of potential purchasers. The combination of fewer buyers and a lower number on the pre-approval letter means sellers would have had to accept reduced offers — or of course choose not to sell.

* There are a number of reasons why a purchased home might not be the right choice for any particular person/family. These reasons include but are not limited to financial instability, familial instability, likelihood of moving within 2 years, lack of interest/skill in home-maintenance, and known future lifestyle changes (having kids, kids moving away, retirement, etc.).

It really was the economy, stupid, might have been the alternate title for Hale Stewart’s article, Why Clinton’s Economy Was Better. I seriously do not know where this guy finds time to write as much as he does. But nevertheless I’m glad he does. Oh my and his charts bring joy to my inner technical analyst! Hmm where was I? Oh, right, Clinton.

Ultra-short version of the article is that by eliminating the budget deficit and starting to pay down the national debt, President Clinton forced investors out of US government bonds and into the stock market. This not only created investor confidence, it provided the capitalization to create good paying jobs. Mr. Clinton’s job creation and unemployment rate numbers are also remarkable when you consider that the Welfare Reform bill of 1996 put thousands more people into the workforce.

The goal of a balanced federal budget is a conservative ideal I can support. We now have anecdotal evidence that it is good for all sectors of the economy. It may not be the right thing in all times — Mr. Bush’s Trifecta of “recession, war, or a national emergency” comes to mind — but under normal circumstances it is a good idea to not spend more money than you have.

And to complete the symphony, we have the Left’s favorite economist, Paul Krugman, and his commentary Why Economists Are Jittery about the Stock Market. Sometimes it is difficult to read things by even the most dynamic of economists; if you can only manage one paragraph or two:

What’s been happening in financial markets over the past few days is something that truly scares monetary economists: liquidity has dried up. That is, markets in stuff that is normally traded all the time — in particular, financial instruments backed by home mortgages — have shut down because there are no buyers.This could turn out to be nothing more than a brief scare. At worst, however, it could cause a chain reaction of debt defaults.

Nor are mortgage-backed securities the only paper that until last week was “normally traded all the time.” Another victim/culprit is “high-yield corporate debt, a k a junk bonds.” Remember junk bonds? Remember what the 80s?

So Mr. Krugman is saying that if nobody is willing to buy these securities, nobody will be able to sell them. If they can’t be sold, the people who own them will have a hard time paying other financial obligations or making new investments. That, in turn, means more defaults and fewer available investment dollars — both of which are bad for both the markets and the economy at large.

If all these items had a central theme, it would be that “too much debt” and “too little cash and cash equivalents” are problems both on a microeconomic and macroeconomic level. It does not matter whether you are Joe Average, a small business, a large publicly traded company, or even the government.

To the Health and Well-Being of Adults, Children, and Cute Fuzzy Animals

Sometimes it takes the BBC to tell us the bleeding obvious: “Too much food, alcohol and sun has fuelled a massive rise in some forms of cancer, warn UK experts.” They’re British, so save the pedantic comments about spelling. There’s a lot to be said for “Moderation in all things.” Now, science confirms it!

Speaking of too much food, a new study suggests that feeding lots of “diet” foods to kids may cause overeating as adults. The working theory is that they “are conditioned to associate certain tastes – be they sweet or salty – with low-calorie foods, [so] they will begin to overeat at later meals to compensate, even if the sweet and salty treats are calorie-rich.” But by the time puberty is reached, “they likely used other cues, such as texture and portion size, to determine more correct calorie intake.” Granted, the research in question was done in rats, but in an age where we are becoming increasingly concerned about childhood obesity rates, this research may mean rethinking weight control for kids. The scientist in charge of the research concluded “Use nutritious, healthy food with calories and make sure the calories are balanced to the amount of activity level of the children.”

Of course I think we are all better off eating “nutritious, healthy food with calories” as opposed to the chemistry experiments that allow us to eat “low calorie” versions of cookies, candy, and high fat/sugar things.

And as for Cute Fuzzy Animals, today I received an email. I don’t normally forward such things, but I have verified this particular story via Snopes:

Hi, all you animal lovers. This is pretty simple… Please tell ten friends to tell ten today! The Animal Rescue Site is having trouble getting enough people to click on it daily to meet their quota of getting free food donated every day to abused and neglected animals.It takes less than a minute (How about 20 seconds) [actually it takes about 5 seconds, I tried it] to go to their site and click on the purple box “fund food for animals” for free. This doesn’t cost you a thing.

Their corporate sponsors/advertisers use the number of daily visits to donate food to abandoned/neglected animals in exchange for advertising.

Here’s the web site! Pass it along to people you know.

http://www.theanimalrescuesite.com/

AGAIN, PLEASE TELL 10 FRIENDS

Snopes points out that CharityUSA runs a family of sites that allow you to “donate” money for free by clicking a simple link, in addition to several online stores that allow you to both give money and show your charitable pride.

If you want to tell 10 people, that’s fine. If you’d rather put this information on your own site, that’s even better. But in any event, get clicking!

In closing: Bush 41, proud father?; if the economy is so great, how come fewer Mexican workers in the United States are sending money home; the CSM reports that experts say if you want to fly and get there on time, it will cost you extra; the new environmentalists on the block, Christian Evangelicals; a HUGE new planet has been found; and finally, Support Our Constitution.

House on Shorties Hill

A Win-Win-Win Proposal. Russell Shaw wrote a piece for the Huffington Post suggesting that we could put together some sort of government agency to rebuild our infrastructure. Things like bridges and roads and parks would be (re)built and maintained; Joe and Jane Average would have the benefit of things like bridges and roads and parks; American citizens would be employed in such fields as construction, engineering, and even back-office professions. You know what? FDR tried that in the 30’s and it works!

A Tale of Two Fed Heads. Ok, by now everybody has seen the footage of Jim Cramer going on about how Bernanke needs to lower interest rates by a full percent to avoid catastrophe, fire and brimstone, dogs and cats, living together? Never mind that he made a very similar speech a week earlier on his own show. Needless to say Mr. Cramer had some things to say about yesterday’s Fed meeting. Meanwhile, the always insightful Tim Iocono has advice for Mr. Bernanke and a summary of current Greenspeak. What Would Alan Greenspan Do?

Listen, we know you only have about an hour of electricity a day, and that temperatures are over 100F, but you really need to ram through this piece of legislation mmkay? Next time you see one of those political cartoons making fun of the Iraqi Parliament for taking August off — huh, just like the President and Congress does! — go ahead and look up a current Baghdad weather report. But sometimes it feels like nobody in the West except me and Alternet have noticed that maybe the reason Iraq can’t get the “oil bill” passed is that it is a steaming pile of stuff that isn’t good for Iraq.

Insurance Filter. USA Today asks and answers, When is something less than nothing? When it’s insurance coverage for childhood and adolescent vaccines. Listen folks, kids who don’t get vaccinated become a health hazard in our communities. They become the basis for outbreaks among people too young to be vaccinated, people whose immunity has worn off for whatever reason, and other people who are not vaccinated. Sure, the insurance companies are trying to save a few bucks; that comes with being a for-profit company. But public health is more important than meeting Wall Street expectations. Elsewhere in the Wonderful World of Insurance, young adults make up 30% of those without health insurance, largely because they can’t afford it.

Congress better have an ace up its sleeve. US News’s roundup confirms what was clear to me from Ed Schultz’s callers yesterday: people are mad that the Democrats they sent to Congress in the 2006 elections to change the status quo have caved in to Presidential pressure and fears of being branded some kind of terrorist-lover by passing this wiretap bill. Here’s the List of Shame.

Tough rules are meaningless unless you enforce them. “In a new effort to crack down on illegal immigrants, federal authorities are expected to announce tough rules this week that would require employers to fire workers who use false Social Security numbers.” Here’s a thought, enforce the rules that already exist! Enforcement of these rules during the Bush Administration is down 95%. And that’s 95% down from what the Christian Science Monitor calls reduced enforcement since the Reagan Administration, noting that “Since the 9/11 attacks, there has been even less focus on interior investigations.”

Somebody Knew the Ride was Ending. What a coincidence! Four guys who got out of those now-defunct Bear Stearns hedge funds just happened to be executives with Bear Stearns.

And finally, That’s One Heck of a Snow-Cone! Of course, in Japan they call it kakigori.

Two for the Road

Part One: What, Me Worry?

The New York Times was kind enough to publish a little item called “A Question Recurs: How Safe Is Las Vegas?”

Please remember, I am one of the 1.5 million people who live in the Las Vegas Valley, and that Las Vegas itself is one of the 50 largest cities in the United States, and 5000 people move here every month. This is before you account for the fact that 16 of the 20 largest hotels in the world are in Las Vegas and that 38.9 million people visited town last year.

Reading the article, I could not decide whether the NYT was saying “eek beware stay away” or “hey, they have things under control.” You wouldn’t know it to watch reruns of CSI on Spike, but there have really only been two recent incidents that have broken into the national news seen: a lone nutcase who opened fire before being taken down by off-duty military tourists, and a hit that happened to involve a bomb on the victim’s car. A former sheriff, who now runs security for one of the casino groups, says:

“We have not had an event here in Las Vegas the equivalent of the events of 9/11 or anything close to that, and that hasn’t been by accident…. With all that said, it’s going to be very, very, very difficult to prevent lone criminals who have the intentions of harming themselves and others.”

Translation: it’s really hard to stop one nut.

Look, folks, I am not worried about terraists attacking here. First, every casino has cameras everywhere (remember? “part of me knows what you’re thinking”?) — and there’s even casinos in grocery stores. There’s also security everywhere, and they have been trained to make sure that the city’s guests have a good and safe time. There are other factors I won’t trouble you about, let me just say that the only coordinated attack that I think has any chance of success is if some truly fringe religious group is involved.

Part Two: Even Steve Liesman doesn’t like the numbers

CNBC was talking about the job creation figures for July, which were released today. CNN nicely summarizes job growth as “weaker” and points out that average hourly wages grew a whole six cents! So much for how raising the minimum wage was going to put employers in a bind. Those who would like to blame the minimum wage hike for these numbers would do well to remember that this is merely the latest in a trend of bad numbers, and that we have actually had a month with worse job creation earlier this year. TheStreet.com has some more details, but if you want the overall picture check out this chart from The Mess That Greenspan Made.

Let’s set aside the fact that 92,000 jobs were created, when we need at least 150,000 to absorb new people in the labor pool. Let’s not get bogged down in the fact that none of those people count as “unemployed” because they were never employed in the first place. And let’s only give a passing nod CNBC’s mentioning “All the July job growth came in service industries, which added 104,000 jobs while goods-producing industries cut 12,000 positions. The government shed 28,000 jobs in July, the first time in more than a year and half that the government has cut hiring.” That’s the second month in a row that “service industries” created more jobs than the headline job creation number! How long until every job requires phrases like “how can I help you”? How can we continue to call ourselves a “superpower” when each month we make less stuff, we build fewer things, and we spend more time giving one another “service” using products made somewhere else?

An hour after the figures were released, CNBC’s Chief Economist Steve Liesman asked whether the job creation numbers in the financial services industry accounted for the 7000 employees of American Home Mortgage for whom today is the last day of work. Frankly, he sounded skeptical of the numbers overall. Could it be that he’s beginning to suspect that the employment and job creation numbers are just as rigged as the inflation figures?

In closing: the things dads can teach their kids include financial literacy and lockpicking; remember me mentioning that the Canadians had sent an expedition to claim the North Pole? Well Russia sent a submarine to claim the land under the ice cap, so the Stalemate for Santa is on!; and finally, beating your wife is not a Christian value! Submitting to “authority” and having the crap beaten out of you are different things, and any man who can’t see that does not deserve to have a wife. Or, to paraphrase Karl Cullinane, “You do not say ‘my wife’ or ‘my child’ in the same way you would say ‘my shovel.'”

From the “now I’ve seen everything” files….

Today I got one of those coupon booklets in the mail. You know the sort of thing. I was flipping through it when I saw this:

Menopause, the Musical

The rest of the page informed me that someone from the local paper wrote “Dollar for dollar, it’s the best show in town.” At this point, it is worth pointing out that the next line on the page is “Free Las Vegas Hilton Buffet! See Reverse Side for Details!”

Apparently this is for real, but I bet you’ll never ever see a high school production of it.

But Wait There’s More

If you are pressed for time today, the Associated Press has condensed this Washington Post article. For the truly short-of-attention-span (emphasis mine):

The Bush administration’s top intelligence official has acknowledged that a controversial domestic surveillance program was only one part of a much broader spying effort, The Washington Post reported in its Wednesday edition. [snip]

“That is the only aspect of the NSA activities that can be discussed publicly because it is the only aspect of those various activities whose existence has been officially acknowledged,” McConnell wrote, according to the Post. [snip]

The letter was written to defend Attorney General Alberto Gonzales….

So it’s ok for someone to lie to Congress because they’re not in the loop about your illegal spying operation? What?

Just about the only person standing up for Mr. Gonzales at this point is Mr. Cheney, who appeared on Larry King Live to say that since there’s no charges yet, the investigation is a “witch hunt.” Apparently Mr. Cheney is unaware that investigations usually precede charges, not the other way around. If you would like to see Mr. Cheney’s comments analyzed and certain facts disputed, check it out here. One thing that I will point out is in the very last minute or so. Mr Cheney very specifically says something that is supposed to be interpreted as “I don’t recall that I sent [Mr. Gonzales] to the hospital [to see Mr. Ashcroft].” What he in fact says is “I don’t recall I sent him to the hospital.”

The word that does not appear between those phrases. Perhaps he meant a period.

Stop waiting for “the other shoe to drop”, because we clearly have a centipede on our hands.

In closing: researchers come to the conclusion that it’s because it feels good; Brad Plumer tells us how the War on Drugs is the War on the Welfare Rolls, and there is a related commentary here; where business and fashion collide, we find Liz; three items for economics filter, housing prices, “blame the Chinese”, and “5 lies my economist told me”, and last a solution so simple it should already be in place, if classrooms have locks, it’s easier to keep gunmen out. Now of course it is possible for Bad Guys to lock doors too, and I’m sure most Principals are sputtering on about kids locking the door for nefarious purposes. That’s why locks have keys, people. It seems to me the Principal should probably have one.

On Retail

This summer, I have been trying to buy a new swimsuit. The word “trying” should probably alert you to the fact that I have — so far, anyway — failed.

I’ve been working out, toning up, actually have regular access to a pool. Since I have not purchased a new swimsuit in about 5 years, I thought this was not only the time, but that I should really try and get a bikini. I have not found anything acceptable, and frankly have only found about 2 things worth even taking back to the fitting room. I don’t know who is designing these darn things, but they need a serious talking-to.

Pet peeve one is that bottoms are almost universally adorned with buckles, bows, or ruffles. Just what every woman wants, is to make her butt look bigger! Sure, go ahead, put those bows right out there on my hips, add a couple inches to them. Oh, and look, the bow makes the fit adjustable — or gives a perfect opportunity for Bad Boys to harass you at the public pool. It’s two, two, two inconveniences for the price of one! Look, even if you are trying to attract Sir Mix-a-lot, he’s a smart guy and isn’t going to be fooled by a bit of fabric.

Peeve two is metal decorations. Sometimes these are on the aforementioned hip-enlarging brigade. Sometimes it is holding the top together. Sometimes it even includes little dangly bits that are supposed to be attractive somehow. You know what they are to me? Something that will get blazing hot in the sun. Oh yeah, perfect thing to put on a swimsuit! Maybe the designers didn’t notice, but most people go to the pool on hot, sunny days.

What the heck were they thinking? At least the guys who decided to put school supplies on sale for super-low prices in July (before anybody even gets their school supply lists) have a sort of mad genius going for them; the people who buy early will be back for the things they didn’t know they needed.

In closing, CBS televising video games (bye bye EGLN, so long EREV); why you should digitize your old photos; Hillary proves she cares more about corporate interests than American interests; didn’t I tell you people were filing for disability when finding a “decent” job was too hard?; thanks to Jill for pointing out someone else who understands that universal health and mandatory health insurance are different things; caffeine + exercise = lower risk of skin cancer (but that’s not an excuse to skip sunscreen!); and finally, why have there only been 2 Medals of Honor awarded in Iraq — both posthumous?