A real fast thought on short selling

The SEC has temporarily banned short selling of 799 financial stocks.

Maybe you don’t know what short selling is.  Here’s the funny explanation first:

Now here’s the not so funny explanation.

Essentially, buying a stock is betting the price will go up.  Short selling is selling shares you don’t actually have, betting the price will go down, and you can “buy to cover” later. One thing to remember:  when you buy, you can only lose as much as you spent but your gains are theoretically limitless;  when you sell short, you can lose a theoretically infinite amount of money, but your gains are limited.  This is not a strategy for Joe and Jane Average.

It remains to be seen whether this will actually help the financial stocks in question.  Some people do think it’s a bad idea and there were other ways to solve the problem.

News Flash!

I will be attending BlogWorld this weekend. Specifically, I will be on a panel Saturday called “The Political Blogosphere In Transition.”

Here’s the official description:

The political blogosphere was born after the divisive 2000 presidential election and has matured rapidly in the eight years since. The selection of a new president in 2008 will be a key transition for political bloggers who have been inspired or infuriated by the policies of George W. Bush. How will the “netroots” and the “rightroots” react?

Moderator: Austin Bay

Panelists: Pam Spaulding, Rob Neppell, Bridget Magnus, Roger Simon

Many thanks to Joe Gandelman of The Moderate Voice for recomending me. I will be representing them as well as myself.

Financial Mess of the Day

As I write, the bell is sounding at the New York Stock Exchange, officially ending the trading day on the floor.  Electronic trading continues, and other trading floors in other time zones remain open.

What’s gonna blow up next?

Bear Stearns.  IndyMac.  A score of small and medium sized banks.  Fannie and Freddie.  Lehman Brothers.  All gone.

The latest financial disaster was just yesterday:  AIG was saved by a huge government loan that will leave the company almost 4/5 owned by the Feds. Elrod did a great job of outlining it, so I won’t linger too long. Remember, as an insurance company, AIG is obligated by state laws to have reserves to cover claims.  This being the case, I actually have great confidence that the loans will be repaid.  Oh, and the New Boss — Uncle Sam — is insisting that a bunch of things be sold off to make sure of it!

And that brings me to an interesting point:  this is the second time in 2 weeks that we have heard a financial institution described as “too big to fail” — so big that allowing them to go out of business would have too big a negative impact on too many innocent people.  The phrase was used in the Fannie/Freddie mess, and it’s back like bad lunchmeat.

Too big to fail should be the same thing as too big to exist. I mean it.

Once you discount people who have had far too much Kool-Aid, it is clear to just about everyone sane that our current economy sucks. Oil and gold are jumping again, stocks are plummeting.  As a bit of a side-note, funny how fast oil slid back under $100 per barrel as Lehman collapsed!  And frankly, as I read the chart, I would not be surprised by a slide under 10,000 points, perhaps to 8600.  Add to that the fact that there are more than twice as many job-seekers as jobs for them, even assuming the jobs available matched the skills and needs of the people who need work.

In spite of all this, the Fed did not cut rates yesterday. They can’t! When the Fed looks at the prices we see at the pump and in the grocery store, they can’t pretend there is no inflation. And there may also be some realization that super-low rates, rates below some magic level nobody knows, only theoretically stimulate the economy.  But they can’t say either of those things in public yet.  Right now, they have to fall back on the idea that “if the problem with America’s financial institutions islack of liquidity, then making lending into a money-loser is not the answer.”

The deathwatch for WaMu is already underway.  Remember, I expect Wells Fargo to be toast as well.  I wonder if either of them is “too big to fail.”

In closing: Nihon no neko!  Cute kittens, no translation required;  pie chart of contributors to the budget deficit;  it’s even expensive to apply to medical school;  a really good item on the current state of political thinking; pro-choice is pro-life; vintage photos of geisha and maiko (apprentice geisha); someone else gives Howard Dean some love; for an American company, GM isn’t acting like it (granted, you can see Canada from their headquarters… Does that make them foriegn policy experts?); McCain blames his computer illiteracy on — wait for it! — he was a POW! If he can’t even comb his own hair, can he really run the country?; focus on the critical issues; and Happy Constitution Day.

30 Shorties of Night

Letters from the Occupation: Journalist Elizabeth Ryan’s letters from Post-war Japan have been found, and there are hopes they will turn into a book.

Indoctrination?: Is it indoctrination to refuse to lie to students? “Teaching the controversy” is often nothing more than an excuse to give equal time to disproven theories.

She was never convicted: Lizzy Borden only allegedly took an axe, and gave her mother 40 whacks. Now she is a museum subject.

Altogether too true: A little chart of national media election coverage.

Netroots Voter Registration Drive: Seriously people.  Register to vote already. It’s important.  And it’s even more important that you get your butt off that chair and vote in the elections.  You waive your right to complain if you won’t do **** **** about the status quo. No excuses, no nonsense about jury duty (that list often gets pulled from the drivers license database, anyway).  Take 3 minutes to register to vote, and commit to making your opinion known.

Need something to be an activist about?: Proposed changes to the Department of Health and Human Services guidelines would make it easier for just about anybody who works in any sort of medical facility to prevent women from receiving some medical services and medications on “moral grounds”.  This proposed change potentially effects 98% of all women in the United States. We have until the 25th to make it clear that this is not acceptable.

If you think these aren’t related, you’re wrong: USA Today goes on about how too few medical students are opting for the un-glamourous world of General Internists. Scroll down and you’ll see “Members of the medical school class of 2007 graduated with an average debt of $140,000….”  That’s up from $60,000 in 1990 and $95,000 in 2000.  Then USA Today went on some more about “Medical schools, journals start to fight drug industry influence.”  Maybe if these young men — and let’s not use gender-neutral language to hide the fact that they are mostly men — didn’t graduate with the equivalent of an extra house payment hanging over their heads (and committed to 3-5 years of underpaid overwork if they ever want a “real” job), they wouldn’t need gifts from the drug companies. We won’t successfully “reform” the system without addressing how medical school gets funded.

I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again: the kind of employer who doesn’t mind ignoring illegal immigrant workers is the same kind of employer who is willing to ignore other labor laws.

The Governor Sends His Regrets: We must stop using that airport because it’s too convenient.

Somebody ran the numbers: Obama won’t raise your taxes unless you make a whole lotta money.  McCain won’t lower your taxes unless you make a whole lotta money. Lest you think this is the ranting of a buncha liberal latte sippers, the data is from Business Week.

Gotta supress this science stuff: Experiments consistently prove that junk food is junk.

He finally said it: Obama has finally called a lie a lie.

Squeeze: American workers caught between high gas prices, high health insurance costs, and falling wages.

And just a brief rant: Victoria’s Secret has pants.  They have them in a cut called The Bridget Fit.  This is misleading advertising, as I would have to be at least 6-8 inches taller than I am to fit into that.

If the sky isn’t falling, why is that cloud down here?

Let’s get all these economic stories out in one place so we can look at them as a whole.

Economist’s View has charts showing that even as the economy has grown, the American worker has gotten very little out of it.

CNN tells us that there is “no jobs turnaround on [the] horizon“, and that was before Friday’s abysmal numbers. At that point, the Department of Labor had admitted that our economy has lost 463,000 this year through July. Then the August numbers came in and “deflate[d] Wall Street“.  It has officially gotten to the point where the official statistics can no longer hide unemployment:  August’s loss of 84,000 brings our unemployment rate to a 5 year high of 6.1%, and once you include “marginally attached workers”, real unemployment is over 10%. That’s a huge jump, and makes many economists think this has to be a recession. Some economists are making fun of other economists who say it’s not here yet.

There’s a lot of chatter about how much, in what manner, and why the official stats are manipulated and whether that’s actually a good thing.

I am not the only one trying to put everything in one place.  Here’s Citizen Carrie and Cogitamus’s Sir Charles (Cogitamus is Latin… should that be Cogitami?).  Robert Reich falls back on an old line to describe the big picture:  It’s the economy, stupid.

I haven’t even gotten to the ballooning of the FDIC watchlist, nor the expected Federal takeover of Fannie and Freddie (more on that over at BridgetMagnus.com).

In closing: hurricane tracking website; on private contractors in Iraq; crashing a motorcycle going 239 MPH is certain death, but what a way to go; what were you wearing in 1977; Happy Birthday Little Prince.

I want to shut up…

… about Sarah Palin.

I really do.

But here’s today’s Sarahfilter:

Robert Reich on vetting of candidates

Alternet on her lies, her daughter’s pregnancy, distracting the Democrats, Alaskan oil payola, fetal rights, and inadvertent sex-ed for any youngster that happens to watch the news. We wouldn’t want kids educated about current events, would we?

Some really thoughtful stuff from the Freakonomics guys on teen pregnancy.

The Earth-Bound Misfit on the Alaska Independence Party — of which Sarah Palin is not just a sympathizer, she’s a member.  America first?  In what way?

Hilarious analysis of her speech by Roy Edroso.

HuffPo (yeah, I know I swore off them) on her religious views — with video of the lady herself speaking before the congregation about the spiritual side of the War on Terror. Susie asks “why is it again that we care more about her pregnant daughter than her clear inability to separate church and state?”

A succinct statement on double-standards from Mercury Rising.

And the National Enquirer is set to break news about Ms. Palin’s extramarital affair.

Now, a couple of those links mention Ms. Palin’s 8 hour flight after her water broke, while she was in labor, prematurely, at the end of a geriatric pregnancy, with a baby with known birth defects, to deliver at a relatively small Alaskan hospital, despite the fact that she started the journey minutes away from a top-notch medical center in Texas.  This should cause any woman who has actually been in labor to be baffled.  This only makes sence if one of two things are true:  either she had to return to Alaska because that’s where Bristol was having the baby (and the “currently 5 months along” is a lie, but what’s one more lie?); or the baby had to be born in Alaska so he would be a “native born” Alaska citizen should the Alaska Independence Party actually successfully secede.

In closing: The Drop-Off; A true comic; a not true comic; an I hope it’s not true comic; Wall Street decides the sky is falling (don’t blink, tomorrow they will think all is well); at least oil prices may return to rational levels, although I doubt gas prices will fall below $3 per gallon in the foreseeable future; health insurance and health care are different things.

I sure hope I am done talking about Sarah Palin forever.

Just a question

Some people were giving Senator Obama a bad time for taking what is to many Americans a “dream vacation”:  a trip to Hawaii. He was called “elitist.”

But tell me, what could possibly be more elitist than hunting predatory game from the safety of an airplane?

Talk about your drive-by shootings!

In closing: Generic Democratic Nomination Acceptance Speech; Bristol is a person, not a pawn; today’s dose of Japanfilter is Jrawk, the murder scene that wasn’t, and CSM’s follow-up on the transition to a new Japanese Prime Minister (background here); Feminism, economic stability, and family planning all go together;  CNN Money Duhpartment of Research tells us that collapsing housing values may effect your retirement; and How Important Is Social Security?  Let me count the money ways.

Follow-Up Sundaes

Greater Blogtopia and all the media outlets have now had a chance to ruminate on the McCain-Palin ticket, and really it doesn’t sound like many people have a lot good to say about Gov. Palin. Ok, she has some supporters.

A lot of us are left scratching our heads (here’s Joe Gandelman on Why Palin), and a lot of people think her selection was a full-on error of judgment. Here’s Bloomberg, Sydney Morning Herald, the paper people are reading in Minneapolis-St. Paul (you remember, where they’re having the Republican convention this week with or without the President and Vice President), the Guardian‘s round-up of American politicians, some opinion from Alaska (you know, the home state where she’s a well-loved if brief-tenured governor), someone who had until Friday been a McCain supporter, and opinions as varied as the World Socialists and the Associated Press (yeah I guess I’m not boycotting them, but I’m sure as **** not paying them either!)

Some choice reading on the matter: What Republicans Really Think of Women; McCain-Palin Dream Ticket; and 45 potential political problems that have turned up for Gov. Palin in the first 35 hours of her being a candidate. Ok, right now it’s up to 51, which is pretty close to one per hour. I am very impressed! Fascinating reading. Did you know that in addition to being vehemently Pro-“Life”, she’s against all forms of birth control and for the now completely discredited abstinence only sex-ed? And that doesn’t even get into her stances on the environment and workplace safety, nor her little Abramoff problem (what, you didn’t think his stench had left the party, did you?)

In closing: Business Week disagrees with me about leaving the summary off a resume, so let me revise my stance — only put in a summary if you have room and can write a convincing summary that makes it sound like I need to have you on my payroll for at least the next 5 years; Minyanland seems to be an economy game for kids; GameTracker; on the possibility of Financial Armageddon; a comic with too much truth in it; and at least locally, J-1 visa-holders are just as bad off as their H-1b brethren. Think we can’t outsource medical care? Think again.

It’s going to be an interesting week.

This week the Republican National Convention will take place.  Also this week, Hurricane Gustav will hit the gulf coast.  It’s already a Category 4 storm;  Katrina was Category 5, and New Orleans is still a big mess 3 years later.

The big news for the week was supposed to have been Senator McCain’s Vice Presidential candidate, now known to be Sarah Palin.  More than one person thought of Michael Palin — except for the whole not being American thing. Gov. Palin is an interesting selection, and one that took almost everyone by surprise.  Nobody is sure yet whether this is a big win or a big loss.  Leading theories on the motive for this pick:  she’s a woman and the pseudo-feminists who wouldn’t vote for anybody but Hillary will be impressed;  there was a checklist of positions on various issues and she fit; since she’s relatively unknown, it’s hard to know anything bad about her.

But as MSNBC pointed out last night, there was actually quite an under-the-radar campaign for her.  How else do you explain her spread in December’s Vogue Magazine?  Her appearance on CNBC with Maria Bartiromo?  Her other appearance on CNBC with Larry Kudlow (wherein she wonders what exactly the Vice President does all day!)?

And as many others have pointed out, she has problems.  She has an abuse of power scandal, very little experience, a small baby to take care of on the campaign trail (one commentator wonders if she is breastfeeding), a pro-life stance as courageous as it is out-of-touch for most Americans (at least she walks the walk on this), a host of other positions most Americans don’t share, the town where she was mayor is still trying to recover financially, some experts wonder why she was chosen, others call her a “panic pick“, and to top everything off, her youngest child may very well actually be her grandchild!  Some suspect she may be the grandmother twice!

She is the Governor of Alaska.  Alaska has a population of roughly 670,000 people in 2006. Her entire state has a population roughly equal to the cities of Memphis TN or Austin TX. Not including suburbs. Keep in mind that 27% of the population of Alaska is under 18;  the maximum number of votes she could possibly have received — lifetime, including for Miss Alaska and the PTA and Mayor — was under 500,000.  Roughly 18,000,000 people voted for Hillary Clinton in the primaries.  That’s 36 times the number of votes Gov. Palin could possibly have received for anything, for any purpose, in any poll.

Seriously, what was Senator McCain thinking?

In the end, the nicest thing anybody outside party leadership could find to say was “At least it’s not Romney.”

In closing,  an August retrospective: people still use this as a reference on Wendy Gramm; everybody go serfin’, Serfin’ USA!; duh, drinking lots of high-calorie sugary drinks could make you fat; I wish this were no longer relevant, but a Message for the College Students in your life; here’s Everything You Need to Know about Social Security Reform and Everything You Need to Know about a Federal Sales Tax.

Have a great Labor Day weekend!

Hillary and Michelle: Feminism and Post-Feminism

In the last two days, we have had the opportunity to hear two remarkable speeches from two remarkable women.  And despite the fact that these women probably agree on a lot of issues, despite the fact that they are both members of the same political party, both grew up in Illinois, both went to prestigious schools on the East Coast, both got high-powered law degrees, both married up-and-coming young lawyers on the road to incredible political careers, they are so different.  One of these women is the Senator from New York and the wife of our 42nd President, Hillary Rodham Clinton.  The other is the wife of the Senator from Illinois and candidate to become our 44th President, Michelle Robinson Obama.

Wait — that sounds funny, doesn’t it?  Michelle doesn’t need to remind people about the family of her birth.  Michelle doesn’t need to hyphenate. The fact is that the feminism of women born in the 60s and 70s is very different from the feminism of women born in the 40s and 50s. While some of the issues remain the same, the context is changed and our reaction is different.  Brilliant Jill tells us a little about that old school feminism:

I remember early feminism. I remember the feminism of the affluent suburbs during the early 1970’s, when women whose husbands had high-powered jobs or had inherited money, who in the stately colonials of Westfield, New Jersey, held consciousness-raising groups about how oppressed they were. Early-stage feminism had little common cause with the women slinging eggs over easy at the diner, or cleaning the bedpans in the hospitals and nursing homes, or the ones teaching their children. It was about restrictive country clubs and examining their own vaginas. You could almost understand this in the early stages of a movement. Those who need it the most are too busy trying to keep a roof over their heads and don’t have time for activism.

When Hillary was in college, the Supreme Court had to make birth control pills legal;  it would be years until Roe v. Wade made abortion legal. Michelle has always lived in a world where women could control when (and if) they wanted to have children.

As Hillary herself pointed out, NASA wouldn’t even talk to her about being an astronaut because she was a girl. Today women may still only make $0.77 for every $1 earned by a man, but women at least have the opportunity to enter almost any profession.

Hillary wears pantsuits to show us all she is just as good as any man.  Chelsea wore a suit with a skirt, and looked as if she needed no man’s approval to begin the board meeting. Much has already been made of Michelle’s fashion choices.  She doesn’t need to dress like a man to show her authority in the office, the courtroom, or the home.

Hillary’s generation worked hard to achieve, to make it known that a woman could achieve. Michelle can do whatever she wants:  stay at home mom; career at a top law firm; charitable work in our communities.  She can do this because we already take it as fact that women can.

It was appropriate to mark yesterday as the 88th anniversary of women getting to vote. My grandmother was not quite born yet.  Hillary’s grandmother very likely remembered the day and cherished her first Election Day as a voter.

Hillary noted the start of the women’s rights movement going back to 1848 in a place called Seneca Falls. I prefer to take it back to Abigail Adams entreating John Adams to remember the ladies and “Do not put such unlimited power in the hands of the husbands” as Mr. Adams helped write the Declaration of Independence.  Don’t forget that Abigail was wife to one President and mother to another.

The torch is being passed from our feminist predecessors to a new, “third wave” or “post-feminist” generation.  We hope to take it gracefully and without being burned. The unique issues facing women today are different than the ones our mothers and grandmothers and great-grandmothers faced. And if we greet those challenges on higher ground, it is because we are lifted on the shoulders of those mothers and grandmothers.  And if those mothers and grandmothers do not understand that we don’t have to wear pants or don’t like the way we choose to balance our careers and families, so be it.  We will still thank them for having been there.

In closing:  Learning styles are bunk; if “Idle hands are the Devil’s workshop”, then it’s important that almost half of Iraqi adults are unemployed (gee, maybe people with jobs don’t have time to make IEDs, eh?); Business Week on the Enron Legacy; the Winners of the Bad Boss Contest have been announced; problems at a controversial prison?  Just move all the staff and prisoners to a nice clean new prison!  What could possibly go wrong?; business travelers switching to chartered jets has revealed a little deregulation problem; 30 years of Lego mini-figures; Carrie on immigrant round-ups (funny how they didn’t arrest any of the bosses who hired those thousand illegal immigrants); Unbossed on arbitration agreements; you go, Dennis!; and finally, Blue Bees.

By the way, there have been some updates in the Links. You might want to check out the new stuff.