Duhpartment of Educational Research

Today I bring you two inexpensive and obvious ways to improve student performance.

Part One: Sleep in

Yet another study shows that starting the school day a little later — 8:30 instead of 8:00 — increased the number of students that got adequate sleep, improved the mood of students during the school day, and slightly improved grades. Attendance improved and visits to the school health office (what used to be the Nurse’s Office) declined. In fact, the teachers who had been against the change at the beginning of the study supported keeping the later start time by the end!

Locally, high schools start around 7 AM and kids are back in the neighborhood by around 1:30. I can’t help but think that a later start time would reduce not only car accidents, but juvenile delinquency, crimes against teenagers, gang participation, teenage pregnancy, and teenage drug/alcohol abuse. What excuse can school districts possibly have to justify all these negative outcomes?

Part Two: Teach Based on What Kids Know

Kansas City, MO, has been experimenting with a radical program where kids are grouped and learning according to their ability and what skills/knowledge they actually have, rather than what they ought to know as an Xth grader. It turns out that kids do a lot better when you make sure they know things before moving on to more complicated things. Gee, Toru Kumon had that figured out decades ago, and Zig Englemann rediscovered it in a different decade! What’s that saying about people who don’t know history?

In Closing: Eliot on FinReg; drowning; Pick up 25 pounds of rice, a case of canned tuna, and a business loan; and stoning.

Nice of him to notice, and Economic Bonus Round

I am glad to see someone with a high profile speaking out on this, and I sincerely hope other journalists start talking about it.

Now, about that economy.

The nicest thing I can say about the United States economy right now is that unemployment isn’t as bad as it is in much of Europe. Our economy lost jobs last month — and only partly because some of those temporary Census workers were let go — but the really awful part is that the number of workers went down. It isn’t that we had an abnormal number of people die or retire or anything like that, it’s just that over a half million people gave up on trying to find work. And that’s why the official unemployment rate went down.

Of course, if you just happen to have the right set of highly technical job skills, there are plenty of jobs. But — as Jill so ably points out — somehow or another businesses don’t think they should actually have to train employees to use very specialized equipment. I guess they are waiting for the “Qualified Employee Fairy” to stuff resumes under the door.

It’s also worth pointing out that the SBA is running out of money again, which means it will be even harder for small businesses to get money to ramp up operations and create jobs. I am no supporter of the SBA — everyone I’ve ever known that has ever talked to them has ended up with an application for a second mortgage — but this is crazy.

So when all is said and done, I think that more than being “still in the gravitational pull of the Great Recession” and perhaps headed for a “double-dip recession,” it is more intellectually honest to say that from the standpoint of the typical American, there is no recovery: we still aren’t finding jobs, we still are having trouble paying the mortgage, we are still declaring bankruptcy at an alarming rate. Fine, maybe our largest corporations are still making plenty of money, but without the American consumer having money in pocket to buy goods and services, GDP growth can only be somewhere between shaky and an illusion.

In Closing: Uncle Shelby; turns out the kids are bored and not learning the things they should; on the newly revised dietary guidelines; fun with Google auto-complete; biggest banks in the world (and the ones that don’t exist anymore; and please, please drive safely this weekend.

Nevada Firestorm

And no, I’m not talking about the two multi-acre blazes within 4o miles of Las Vegas.

Well, the internet has been all abuzz over the latest from Sharron Angle. Everybody and their dog has already had something to say about her latest interview, including the guy who interviewed her. No wonder she does so few of them! Ezra Klein points out that the choice should be fairly simple, given that Nevada has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country, Angle thinks all those unemployed people should get up off their lazy asses and find a [nonexistent] job, and Reid keeps trying [and failing] to get unemployment benefits extended to at least try and prevent all those unemployed people from becoming homeless too. At least her website has been updated with a little less crazy. She still does think it’s unreasonably hard to get a ballot initiative up in Nevada. I have long urged people to Just Say NO to all voter initiatives, so this is just fine with me.

But wait! Let’s not forget that The Other Reid (he’d prefer to just be known as “Rory“) is in an election too, and his opponent Brian Sandoval has also been campaigning. This week he announced a plan for Nevada schools. It includes giving a “grade” to each school and allowing kids in poorly graded schools to transfer to better schools. Now, there’s 2 problems I see with this. First is that No Child Left Behind already allows the same freaking thing; why reinvent the wheel? The second problem is geography. Nevada is a big state with a small population, and 73% of the population is in one county. While the idea almost makes sense in the Las Vegas Valley, the Reno area, and the Carson City area, it makes no sense in the rural areas where the next school might be an hour or two away.

His second plan is the popular idea of making teacher pay dependent upon student performance. Well, here’s the thing. Teachers can only control what happens in their classroom, and even then only most of the time. When you’ve got kids worried about living on the street, kids stealing ketchup packets so they can have dinner, gang violence, child abuse, parents who don’t give a damn, official curricula that still use sight words*, limited ability to discipline students who are out of line, a bureaucracy that would make any government proud, and a half dozen impediments to learning in the classroom, merit pay is a sick joke.

And idea three is to outsource non-educational services. That would include janitorial services, human resources, and food service. It makes me wonder what firms I would find if I were to look closely at Mr. Sandoval’s investments! There is just no way that it’s cheaper to have a cleaning crew come in at night than to have one or maybe two people on hand all day to clean messes as they occur. Hiring a for-profit catering service to put the cafeteria ladies out of work is just madness. This is aside from the concern some parents will have over whether the employees of these firms might maybe have some desire to harm a child. As much as I would like to dismiss this as tinfoil hat lunacy, the fact of the matter is that Clark County School District has had incidents where non-teachers are accused of harming students.

* I was just horrified to learn what constitutes homework for a first grader!

In closing: A tangible Good Thing from health insurance reform starts today; mortgage rates at record lows, why aren’t we borrowing? (because unemployment is around 10% and most homes are worth less than what is already owed, duh); a financial reform package passed the House and is headed for the Senate, let the hunt for loopholes and political favors begin (it’s ok, banks will ignore what they don’t like anyway); fiscal austerity still doesn’t work; Real Socialists beg the wingnuts to stop calling Obama one of them; a bit of follow-up, the list of countries Van Der Sloot can be extradited to for more charges grows; both of these statements are logical, but both cannot be true; 100 Yen shops, the Japanese Dollar Store; vaccinate your kids!; smart pet tricks; flying cars; and libertarians.

Unclear on How That Works

So Joran Van Der Sloot thinks he can tie Peru’s judicial system into knots. Good luck with that, kid.

Granted, they have made some progress in the last decade and a half. But it would be fair to say that their system works swiftly, and under Peruvian rules — not Dutch rules, and certainly not American rules. First off, they work under the Napoleonic Code, which does have “a de facto presumption of guilt.” And Heaven help him if somebody decides that what he did has even a whiff of terrorism! If that happens, he will wish for circumstances as nice as Gitmo.

He also seems to have forgotten that even if he gets off in Peru, there’s enough evidence now to extradite him back to Aruba.

So yeah, just keep talking. If he’s lucky he will give himself enough rope to be hung quickly.

In Closing: Consumer confidence is not just down, it’s crushed; assuming that actual for real financial regulation reform is not dead, here’s what it might mean for your mortgage, maybe; real life example of health insurance reform at work, San Francisco requires businesses to provide insurance (**** regulations and **** California!!), and Emergency Department visits dropped 70%; good teaching results in fewer “learning disabilities“; the rich get richer; when you don’t clean your own messes you can’t act shocked when somebody else cleans it the hard way; learning to live in poverty; heliophobes; I was amused by the discussion of capris; prepare to be irradiated; you can’t really talk about financial illiteracy without talking about innumeracy; fetuses do not feel pain!; and I’ll be posting some to LivinginLV.com. You can read more about it here. So here’s a little tip for those of you trying to “use” social media to “reach customers”? You’ve got to be social first for social media to work.

The Internet Ate My Homework

In the last 24 hours I have switched cell phones and had my RSS reader suddenly stop working. As a result, I’ve spent much of the last day digging out and trying to organize things — and that’s no easy task. So as much as I would like to write something deeper, I’ll be talking briefly about the group of cowards and self-centered blow-hards in Washington DC who are our elected Representatives and Senators.

Thanks to our elected officials preferring the company of insurance company lobbyists to that of citizens that can actually vote for them, we still have a health care system that costs too much and does too little. At least we will soon have certain “rights” when dealing with these companies, but some warn that these “rights” will translate into even higher costs. The House of so-called Representatives did get up off their collective asses to fix a looming slashing of what doctors would be paid under Medicare. Why is this important? First, your doctor’s costs of doing business have not gone down. Second, most major insurers base what they will pay on what Medicare pays. So this would within a year put some doctors out of business.

The House also managed to pass a campaign finance reform bill that would force candidates and political parties to disclose the identities of most big donors. Except of course for the biggest and most powerful donors. They are still free to own their own Congresscritters. Now the bill is ready for slaughter in the Senate.

A couple of Senators are actually trying to do something for children — odd in an election year since they can’t even vote. It seems that an unintended result of some immigration raids is that there are kids whose parents have been taken away. Those kids are often American citizens thanks to the clarity of the 14th Amendment. The bill in question would allow the parents to arrange care for these little Americans, make sure that they have resources and can report abuse, and prevents authorities from involving the kids in interrogations. Think what you want about the parents, but the kids did nothing wrong and deserve the protections of law. The end.

But what could our elected officials not be bothered to do? They couldn’t be bothered to protect servicemen from predatory car salesmen, not even for Mrs. Petraeus. They couldn’t be bothered to extend unemployment benefits for a million people, despite the fact that there are at least 5 unemployed Americans for every available job opening. And no, Sharron, people aren’t living a life of luxury in Las Vegas on unemployment benefits.

So Remember Come November. Vote for those few who have been taking care of your business in Washington, and against those who have been trying to obstruct your business. In the meantime, click here to figure out how to contact your Senators, and here to find your Representative. You’ll need to know your Zip+4, so dig out some mail first.

In closing: fat people don’t walk (an essay on urban design); a “silly” lady who desperately needed the 911 operator to listen (need help? these people can help); they hate us for our electricity; what would Jesus do?; it’s not your typical state dinner — don’t tell Michelle they split an order of fries; and your dose of Japanfilter, the Pepsi Strong Shot.

A Midsummer Day’s Post

Happy Solstice! Now might be a good time for some bloggy closet cleaning (did mine with the redesign, thanks!).

And here’s a little meme courtesy of Kathy. Here’s how it works: Google up “[your name here] needs.” My needs are interesting. I apparently need:

  • Your Support
  • a Spring Haircut
  • a Forever Home
  • and to Change.

How about you?

In closing: exploring the universe; a new way to get on the freeway; Keep on shoving that shoe into your mouth, Sharron; where the national debt meets the national how-we-pay-for-healthcare crisis; I never thought I would call for gutting “gifted” programs; my President Emperor Right or Wrong; and stay cool.

Shorties Sematary

Nothing about mortgages or housing today, I promise!

When did Progressives turn into Reaganites?: With Progressive “ideas” like these, we don’t need Conservatives. Doesn’t matter, the Party Of No shoulders on. Maybe everybody thinks the Underpants Gnomes will take care of the problem.

The other side of the coin: Everybody’s favorite Liberal President, Richard M. Nixon! That damn Commie signed the EPA into law, called for true universal health care, and made Father’s Day an official holiday.

Speaking of Conservatives: b***s*** like this and this are why I don’t listen to most of them.

I Shot a Bank in Reno, Just to Watch it Die: Bank Failure 83 this year. It’s only June. 90 banks have missed their TARP payments, so watch out for more to come.

I’m not sure I entirely agree, but it’s an interesting thought: why baggage fees are good for most travelers, with bonus bagging on airport security.

Aim Carefully When Shooting Your Foot, You Wouldn’t Want to Mess Up Your Pumps: I’m not worried about Sharron Angle anymore. Between blowing off a major news outlet in a market that represents 80% of the voting base (there’s a link for video goodness) and not having any money, Senator Reid has no problems.

On Why Medical Care is More Expensive: Not only is it more complicated, it actually works now. Speaking of which, how quaint that USA Today thinks patients have any control over the use of electronic medical records! Oh yeah, and it looks like your doc will only have a 21% pay drop from Medicare in June. Which by the way is generally a lean month for doctors anyway.

The Beginnings of  Made For TV Disaster Movie: The Night the Oil Rig Exploded. Several scenes already sketched out, with character development and dialogue, ripped from real life.

On Teacher Assessment: It’s only fair to assess them on stuff they have some control over.

It turns out that Moving is Expensive and Inconvenient: Raising taxes on the rich doesn’t cause them to move to other states. If it did, there would be no multi-millionaires in California and lots of huge mansions outside Primm.

On Fraudulent Debt Collection: Has it really gotten to the point where all somebody needs to do is claim you owe money? Even if you do owe money, there’s stuff you don’t have to tolerate from debt collectors.

Why, No Matter What the GDP is, We Are Still in a Recession: Only the very rich have money to spend.

The “Experts” show their Ignorance Once Again: Experts declare that kids don’t need close friends. Parents scratch their heads, wondering where the heck kids will learn to have relationships with other human beings.

The Crazy Neighbor: Whew!

Have a great weekend, folks! Feel free to let me know what you think of the ads in comments.

Mortgapocolypse

Before we get to today’s news, let’s start with a bit of history and background on how banking and lending works. Long ago, the first bankers realized that the odds of everybody wanting their money at the same time were just astronomical. So if they were to lend some of that money out at interest, not only would they profit, but they could pass on a little bit of that interest to depositors, making people want to deposit money with them. Charging of interest is even discussed in the Bible, so we know it happened in Biblical times. This process in fact creates money, so it’s very important to the economy.

But let’s fast-forward to a mythical and highly simplified bank somewhere in America. We’ll call it Bailey Bank. Bailey’s got ten thousand depositors with an average daily balance of $1,000. Simple math says they have roughly $10,000,000 in deposits — small by modern standards but still nothing to sneeze at. The Federal Reserve Bank regulates how much money they need to have on hand, and also says how much needs to be deposited with them for emergency purposes. They still have plenty of money to lend out.

So Bailey makes a few dozen mortgage loans, and lends for a few farms and small businesses too. If they are short on cash, they can borrow money from nearby Potter Bank or from the Federal Reserve, at interest rates set by the Fed. These are the rates that Greenspan used to mess with, and the ones Bernanke can change today, not the rates that banks charge us but the rates they charge one another and the rate that the Fed charges them.

When they came to the point where they didn’t really have more money to lend, they sold a bunch of mortgages to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie and Freddie paid them to be the servicers — sending the bills and collecting the money — and paid Bailey most of the money they would have earned by keeping the mortgage until it was completely paid off. This left Bailey with more money to write more mortgages. But Fannie and Freddie have rules about what they will and won’t buy. So Bailey changed some lending policies to make sure that Fannie and Freddie would buy their loans. There are properties that you almost can’t get a mortgage on because other banks did the same thing.

You already know the sad story of banks being left holding the bag in the foreclosure crisis they created. And maybe you even have seen how banks are driving down property values in your neighborhood by dumping properties at ludicrously low asking prices.

This also left Fannie and Freddie behind the 8-ball, and it may yet cost American taxpayers $1,000,000,000,000 to fix it. Why bother? Because banks have stopped counting on holding mortgages until they mature and count on selling the paper to investors like Fannie and Freddie. Without someone to buy the paper and give banks more money to lend, lending will dry up even more than it already has. And that means almost nobody buys property without cash. It may already be too late to save Fannie and Freddie; they are being delisted from the New York Stock Exchange. It would be polite to say that’s a negative for the stocks.

But there is one ray of sunshine in the mortgage mess: the arrest of Lee Bentley Farkas of mortgage company Taylor, Bean & Whitaker. He and unnamed conspirators are accused of fraud in the TARP program, “misappropriating” $400,000,000, and causing the collapse of Colonial Bank by selling them $1,500,000,000 in bad mortgages. I agree that this prosecution is a good start.

In closing: Arizona still keen to repeal the 14th Amendment even as its schools wonder how to comply with state law; homelessness in America; China owns 13% of the publicly held national debt; some people said I was nuts when I suggested that some religious nuts favored the life of an embryo that couldn’t even become a baby over that of a fully grown woman; terrorist nitwits; and sometimes buttons are better than velcro.

Heeeere Firedoglake! Go get the Cluestick! Good Doggie!

A few minutes ago I read a seriously wrong post on Firedoglake called Reid Seeks Bubble Re-Inflation. The author accuses Senator Harry Reid of trying to reinflate the housing bubble by extending the home buyer tax credit, presumably saving the Las Vegas economy and ensuring his re-election this fall.

Let’s step back and look at the facts.

First, he doesn’t want to extend the credit for new contracts. The purchase contracts had to be signed by April 30. All that paperwork is safely in the files of 2 brokerage offices, an escrow company, and mortgage office. So wrong thing one, this will do nothing, repeat, zilch, nada, to “re-inflate the housing bubble.”

What he does want to do is extend the time those buyers have to close on those homes. As it stands, the transaction must close by the end of June. Under normal circumstances that’s no problem, but we don’t have normal circumstances.

The author says this extension is “ostensibly because of application processing” and warns that this could start a cavalcade of tax fraud! Wrong. First, all my mortgage experts are telling me to plan on a minimum of 45 days from contract signed by all parties to close. That’s because of certain changes in the mortgage process implemented at the first of the year. That makes June a tight squeeze for anybody whose contract is dated April 30, even before you consider the problems of distressed property.

For bank owned properties — which currently account for 19% of available Southern Nevada properties and 38% of recently sold properties — there is the wrinkle of waiting a week to 10 days for the signed contract to come back from the bank. It’s a pain in the butt, and simply the way it is.

And then we have the short sale. A short sale is when the buyer owes more than the home is worth; to sell it, the bank will be “short” money at the end of the deal so they get to approve it. Since roughly 65% of Vegas homes are underwater, there will be a lot of short sales for the foreseeable future. Right now we’ve got over 10,000 properties that have signed, accepted contracts and are waiting for that approval. In the last 30 days, just under 1100 short sales actually closed.

Think about that. At the current pace, it will take 9 months to get through just the short sales with approved contracts, to say nothing of the 4600 short sales that don’t have accepted contracts yet and any others that come on the market. New short sale rules requiring 2 week approval be damned, because they don’t apply to most borrowers.

Heaven help me, I’m defending Harry Reid…

Harry’s not trying to “re-inflate the bubble” and he’s not trying to create a place where mortgage fraud can run rampant (expect mortgage fraud arrests this week, by the way). He’s trying to give all those short sales time to get approved and close.

Life Imitates Monty Python

First, it was the news that Scotsmen were “universally unhealthy” and indeed “living dangerously” when it came to their lifestyles. Sadly, the first thing that popped into mind was that they were universally bad at tennis as well:

Punchline here, if you are unfortunate enough not to remember this.

Then mere hours later, I stumbled upon an item about bearded women taking on the “good old boy” network in France. Please forgive me for automatically thinking of this:

Makes it hard to take the world seriously.

In Closing: proposed stupid laws (LIEberman really thinks there’s an internet “off” switch someplace that the President could pull??); smart judge; gee, what could possibly make somebody nervous in an airport?; Desai pleads not guilty; bank closure 82; earlier school day == more teen car crashes (can we hope that the insurance companies actually do something good for us and pressure school districts?); and for Japanfilter, the Ikaros Solar Sail. Don’t fly too close to the sun, guys.