I have spoken often in the last few weeks about the official employment numbers. Today, an authority no less impressive than the President of the United States of America (not these guys, this guy). Today’s official weekly Presidential address, widely seen as a preview to the State of the Union Address, includes this quote:
“Our economy grew at its fastest pace in two decades in the third quarter of 2003. Manufacturers are seeing a rebound in new orders in factory activity. And more than a quarter-million new jobs have been created since August.”
Gosh, a quarter million jobs sounds impressive. But divide that out over September, October, November, and December, and that’s 62,500 jobs per month. Economists say we need 100,000 jobs created each month just to keep up with people entering the workforce, and 200,000 new jobs each month to actually reduce the unemployment rate (please see link in “Lies, Statistics, and Economic Forcasting,” below). In short, Mr. Bush’s number is not impressive, but he is counting on you not doing the math to figure it out. He hopes nobody will start to loudly ask “If there are all these jobs being created, why can’t I find work?”
The more damning question is “If the economy is growing so fast, how come more jobs aren’t being created? If an 8% rise in GDP isn’t enough to create so much as 100,000 new jobs per month, what is it going to take?”
And about those jobs Mr. Bush keeps talking about — the ones Americans don’t want so lets give them to illegal aliens — back in the old days, long about 1998 or 1999, employers who could not find willing workers did things like raise the pay and improve the benefits. Do you remember when Alan Greenspan was worried about “wage inflation”?
Some people are beginning to think that the administration is going to be relying more and more on true-but-not-the-whole-story numbers as the months until the election wear on. I have long preferred to think of the discrepancy as an honest difference of opinion regarding what the numbers really mean. My patience in this regards is wearing thin.
Finally, my deepest sympathies go to the families of the 500 American soldiers who have died in Iraq since last March. You can find out more about them here or here.