Certain analysts and economists are shocked, just shocked I tell you, to find that the Consumer Confidence numbers — what Joe and Jane Average think of the economy — are getting worse. Hasn’t Joe read that job cuts are at a 9 month low? Isn’t Jane pleased that the Nasdaq is over 2000 again? Are they unaware that inflation is low? Don’t they know job growth hit 4 year highs last month? How could public sentiment not have changed instantly upon hearing this good news?
I think maybe Joe and Jane are focusing on the fact that despite the touted low inflation rate, gas prices are at an all time high and housing in some areas is appreciating at absurd rates, aided and abetted by mortgage companies, appraisers, and Fannie Mae. They would like to believe there is something to those job numbers, but then they hear that the 3rd biggest bank in the United States is eliminating 12,500 jobs. Adding insult to injury is the fact that on average an American with an actual job is still only working 33.7 hours a week and earning $523.70 per week. And that’s before payroll taxes. There still aren’t enough jobs being created, and too many of the jobs created are of the part-time no-benefits variety. More than one analyst thinks things aren’t as good as they should be. The future really isn’t that rosy either. The Baby Boomers are looking at retirement in a decade or so, assuming they can afford to do so. And some analysts say we can’t count on Wall Street to bail us all out.
And maybe consumer sentiment is also effected by what Joe and Jane see happening to America and the World. Joe knows that another mega-blackout could still happen, and that the last one was preventable. Jane knows her rights under the Constitution aren’t what they used to be, particularly if she wants to get on an airplane. And it has not escaped their attention that things are not going well in Iraq, where over 600 American soldiers have been killed in addition to an unknown number of “contractors” doing everything from cooking meals to providing security in lieu of the military. There is some question about whether we will ever be able to bring our troops home — at least there is to everyone but Paul Bremer.
The Statue of Liberty is still closed, and it appears she will remain closed. If this isn’t symbolic, I’m not sure what is.