Category: Random Thoughts

Remember that Medicare drug benefit bill? The one that the AARP supported? The one the AARP got in trouble with it’s members for supporting? (here’s what I said at the time, back before it turned out whole thing was going to cost more than planned.)

It turns out that since the bill passed, prescription drug prices have jumped an average of 3.4%, and in some cases 10%. Here’s the coverage so far: Reuters, CNN, Associated Press, Bloomberg, MSNBC, and Wired. I wonder if the venerable Alan Greenspan noticed this rather sizable rise in prices.

Really bad timing that Laura Bush is out there stumping for her husband on “the effectiveness of her husband’s tax cuts, improvements in the economy, education reforms and the Medicare prescription drug benefit for seniors.”

But I digress. The one thing that I think most people can agree on is that “Both the discount card available now and the drug coverage coming in 2006 are unnecessarily complex and too expensive.” The current “drug discount cards” are not in wide use because they are too complicated and finding people who know what is going on is difficult. Some people call the benefit such cards provide “a joke…. because the benefit there is so small.”

I don’t intend to spend much time discussing the impending feeding frenzy of the lottery for 50,000 spots in the drug coverage pilot program.

Back when this thing was passed, the AARP basically said that although it needed improvements, it was better than nothing. I submit that they were wrong; doing nothing would have been an improvement. No wonder Ernst & Young’s analysts think price controls for medications may be on the way.

I have been using computers for a long time now. I grew up around them in an era when “computer” meant a large bit of machinery in a raised-floor specially air-conditioned room. Back then, a “printer” was this gizmo almost as big as a compact car. In retrospect, people working in the computer room should probably have been wearing ear protection.

Because I have been using computers a long time, I have also used a lot of software, and it is my considered opinion that a lot of it is less than perfect. Don’t get me started on the flaws of Quicken, which I mostly use because there is no better solution. I gave you my opinion about Microsoft Office some time back. All email clients are fine if all you do is read and send nice, normal, plaintext emails, but they are all horrible, kludgy messes if your needs are any more complicated than that. The things that were supposed to make the more powerful modern email client simpler to use have instead made our computers — particularly those running windows — more vulnerable to malicious code and plain old fashioned user stupidity.

Browsers are even worse. At this very moment I have five web browsers installed on my computer. I am running two of them right now. In any given month I usually encounter at least one web site that only works properly with certain browsers; thus I need all five browsers. This is aside from web designer friends asking me to test their sites from outside their local network. Part of the problem with browsers is, in fact, web designers who put as many bells and whistles into a site as possible. Ad designers are also to blame, as they are continually trying to find ways to make web ads stand out. Here’s a thought for the fellow who invented that ad I saw a couple weeks ago that floated across my active window while I was trying to read the article, may your car break down in the middle lane of the freeway during rush hour.

Even icons stink. Two of those 5 browsers have the globe as part of their icon. I often run 3 or 4 programs at the same time with globe icons. Enough! Part of the point of an icon is so the end user can tell programs apart at a glance, without having to read the program name. When several programs use similar icons, that is no longer possible. Developers: please declare a moratorium on globe icons in your products.

And this brings me back to the reason it’s been a week since you have heard from me. No, I have not been at Apple’s WWDC. Nor do I necessarily agree with the Apple strategy of stomping on small developers in quest of the “insanely great.”

But, let me tell you, I recently started using GarageBand, and I love it. It is without a doubt the best cheap sequencer I have ever encountered.

This application has it’s limitations. This tool probably serves the needs of 90% of musicians with computers quite adequately. It is not MIDI, which means no General MIDI specification output, no SMPTE, and no export to scoring programs. It does not appear to support tempo and meter changes in the middle of a song. There are also a couple of little flaws which look like they can easily be changed in the upgrade cycle: for example, tempo is controlled by a slider, with no ability to directly enter a numerical metronome marking; adding a new track makes the new track active, but not automatically “solo,” or audible; I feel certain there are other minor annoyances I have not yet encountered.

However, the program does support a variety of time signatures, including 5/4 and 12/8. All “12” keys are available, although no distinction is made between major, minor, or modes. This actually makes things very flexible. Hit a wrong note? Just drag the note to the correct pitch in the Track Editor window! Hit it too hard, or too soft? Edit the velocity (numerically. Go figure). Individual lines can be brought into beat down to the 32nd note automatically. And if you just plain hit it at the wrong time, drag it to the right place.

But the loop browser is the pure genius of this program. This almost completely circumvents the hassle of figuring out how to enter a great drum line using a keyboard. Anybody can point and click their way to serious personal grooves, both rhythmic and harmonic, and add personal touches by attaching a keyboard, guitar, or microphone. Yes, that’s right, you can record real instruments and voices using GarageBand and the appropriate accessories. Put that in your MIDI pipe and smoke it. It won’t be Abbey Road, but what do you want from a program that comes free with a new computer?

If the virtual musical instruments and preloaded loops that come with the program aren’t enough for you, a cottage industry has cropped up that produces after-market materials for your purchase. Not only are loops and instruments available for several musical genres, there are opportunities to share your music and listen to what others can do. Keep in mind, GarageBand users range from rank amateurs to pro musicians who want to sell you an album.

Speaking of selling an album, GarageBand tracks are easily exported to iTunes, where they can be easily burned to an audio CD and shared with anyone.

Now if you don’t mind, the keyboard beckons.

It just occurred to me: did you know I’ve been at this over a year now?

Buried in a British medical journal is an article entitled Bush plans to screen whole US population for mental illness. There is some blog coverage of this rather sweeping proposal, including from the nice people at Boing Boing. As nearly as I can tell, there is no American media coverage of this proposal.

Now, it is a laudable thing to say “Mental health is important, and should be checked right along with your blood pressure and cholesterol levels.” It is another thing to propose putting an unknown percentage of the American population on expensive, mind altering medication. The BMJ article points out that the Bush family has some financial interest in the companies that make these drugs.

The first problem, as I see it, is who exactly is going to pay for this? Just this week a bill that would have required health plans to cover mental health problems at the same levels as physical health problems was tabled without a vote in Congress. Add to that this week’s report that 82 million Americans lacked health insurance at some point in the last 2 years, some of them even among the nice, stable folk of the middle class.

The second problem — and pardon me while I adjust my aluminum foil hat — is that I am old enough to remember instances of psychiatric fraud resulting in young people having involuntary stays in mental hospitals at insurance company expense. (This is one reason why “insurance parity” is a hard pill for insurers to swallow.) What is to stop this program from being used to control the populace? There are already cases of parents in legal trouble for not giving their children ritalin. Will there be cases of people forced to take medication? Cases of people involuntarily committed — no pesky arrest warrants or fair-and-speedy trials necessary? It isn’t just something that happens in “fiction” novels.

Let’s hope this is another proposal from President Bush that lacks substance. Like the idea of going to Mars. Failing that, let’s hope he fails to budget nearly enough money for it, an “unfunded mandate” like No Child Left Behind.

I do not anticipate being able to post again before next week.

Special thanks to Dean Paxton, Jerry Kindall (check out the awesome photos!), Arcanis (whose LiveJournal I will politely not flood with strangers), KWCom (who actually puts me on the same page as InstaPundit!), Elisa Camahort, GroundMeat, LeaderLog, and all the other referrers.

Oh, and if you are really desperate for my so-called wisdom, you might look at this idea, which frankly makes more sense than ever in a world of absurd gas prices.

I’ve been quoted before as saying that if there were money to be made delivering groceries, Hooper’s Store would still do it. But, believe it or not there’s a second wave of online grocers. And there is actually a chance they are not all doomed.

From the ashes of the Webvan bankruptcy rises several breeds of internet based food delivery systems. On one hand, you have online divisions of the grocery stores you may already shop at: Albertson’s; Safeway. They have the distinct advantage of not needing big warehouses with lots of employees: regular employees can just take product off the shelves and put it on a truck. Then you have companies like Peapod, who in addition to their own internet grocery business do product distribution for several traditional grocers. Finally, you have the specialists. Companies like FreshDirect appear to be the boutique shopping option for groceries.

So, what do these companies have to do to avoid Webvan’s ignoble fate?

Do it right from day one. Too obvious, huh? If you let the customer’s first experience be a bad one, you can just forget ever serving them again. So find out what the customers are going to want first and determine whether you can — literally — deliver.

Make lots of information available online. There are lots of people who read labels before they buy things. If you want to make them internet shoppers, you have to get them that label information, whether it’s in the form of a big database or links to manufacturers. Likewise, alert customers to things like label changes and availability of seasonal produce. While you are at it, take a cue from Home Depot’s “don’t forget to buy this for your project” lists. If your system can see that a customer has all but one ingredient for a common recipe, suggest it. Or use an Amazonian model of “people who bought these products also selected these items.”

Advertise, but don’t over-do it. I still have a collection of assorted Webvan magnets. I have no idea how many postcards they sent me that I threw away. By contrast, I occasionally hear an ad for Albertson’s online service, and I see the truck sitting out front. I know they are there if I need them. Really.

Service, service, service. Toilet paper and boxes of cereal are one thing, but most people just aren’t sure they want fruits, vegetables, and meat picked out by a complete stranger. To counteract that, an online grocer must develop an absolutely impeccable reputation for quality and freshness. Oh, and now that it’s picked out, it needs to arrive on time, every time, when I need it. If that means delivery at 7 PM when everybody is home from work, so be it. If that means before 7 AM so things are there by breakfast time, so be it. If your customer had time to go to the grocery store during banker’s hours, they probably would.

Grow conservatively. It’s best to do one region well than 4 regions poorly. Attempted (and failed) hypergrowth is one of the reasons Webvan failed. For that matter, be willing to write off failures as soon as they are obviously failures. Food Lion wasn’t afraid to walk away from its failed stores in Texas.

Be realistic. Not everybody is willing to pay $10 to have groceries delivered. That’s just the way it is.

The teenager who apparently wrote the Sasser and Netsky worms may have been trying to help drum up business for his mom’s computer repair shop. Sven J. has been arrested, but not before he unleashed what was supposed to have been some kind of damage limiting version of the worm. Indeed, according to the young hacker, Netsky was originally intended as an anti-viral virus to combat MyDoom and Bagle. Oh yeah, except for that whole attacking the local educational server thing. He may, however, avoid jail-time because he just turned 18.

Another worm was apparently written and released by an acquaintance of Sven J. The second young man was also arrested last week. Phatbot is the latest in a line of viruses begun in 2002. It is a spambot, and if you think you have gotten more than your fair share of spam in the last week or so, Phatbot might have something to do with it.

No idea what I’m talking about? How Stuff Works has a good explanation. Go ahead, there’s no harm in admitting you don’t know stuff.

Victims of Sasser, which has only been in circulation since April 30, include Westpac Bank, the Northern Territory Government, British Airways, Delta Airlines and the UK Maritime and Coastguard Agency. These are not home users with neither firewall nor clue; they are large organizations with large Information Technology departments. These are people who have the expertise to make networks secure, even when the official solution is the problem. It costs businesses a lot of money to keep up with this stuff, and even more to combat actual outbreaks. And guess what? Those businesses turn around and pass the costs on to their customers. You.

And that is to say nothing of the time and money you may spend should you be the victim of such a virus.

Microsoft is going to need to do more than give out bounties to stop the virus problem. The idea that a high school student — who his computer teacher described as “not show[ing] early signs of genius in the technological world” — and his college aged buddy could write viruses that can infiltrate a variety of allegedly secure networks is absurd. The fact that one young man has been writing related malicious code that exploits one, single Windows vulnerability for 2 years is absolutely outrageous.

You deserve a virus free computer. Really.

If you only have time to read two important things today, they should be these. First, check out what Security Guru Bruce Schneier has to say about surveillance and search warrants. Then try this piece about hiring trends, inflation, and balancing the economy.

I will not be posting for a few days in the interests of server upgrades and maintenance. Please excuse this interruption. I promise to be posting by the end of the week. There should be no actual downtime for the site.

Thank you for tuning in, and much thanks for your patience.

When Dilbert is making jokes about real estate, I take that as a sign that the housing market is way out of control. With housing starts up to an annualized rate of 2 million units per year you’ve got to wonder. That’s one new house per 146 Americans. Who is buying them? Who will live in them? What are we tearing down to build them?

Another comic with a serious note today is Get Fuzzy, with the aim of reminding us that real people — normal people like you and me — get hurt in wars. Ever thought about letting the military pay for college? Ever thought about serving your country, maybe even picking up some extra cash in the reserves? Then Rob Wilco’s injured cousin could be you. This is to say nothing about the brave men and women who have died in Iraq.

And from corporate America, Coca Cola has announced their intention to launch a “Low Carb” soda. Foolishly, most people who want such a product are already drinking Diet Coke. Indeed, people who are on true low-carb diets do not consume refined sugars at all, particularly during the early stages of the diet. Atkins even says no caffeine, especially during the first two weeks. The only people buying this product will be people who are under the delusion that they can substitute a few “diet” products and lose weight. Yeah, good luck there. In their defense, it is only fair to point out that Coke is merely following Pepsi’s lead.

Two comics being serious. One industry being clueless.

I hate to interrupt your frantic search for bits of paper and mashing on the calculator, but you did know “Tax Day” is Thursday, right? Those of you outside the United States should feel free to scroll down and read something else. If you are hopelessly buried under tax paperwork, you might take a moment to read this.

If, on the other hand, you aren’t one of those people who will be standing in line tomorrow at the Post Office to assure your tax return has the correct postmark date, here are some ideas about what to do with your tax refund. And finally, here’s a bit of excellent reading on taxes, politics, and the 2004 elections.

Politicians say a lot about taxes, particularly in an election year. Everything they say is supposed to make you agree with them enough to vote for them. But listen on the defensive, okay? We don’t need “tax reform,” because that implies taxes are corrupt. We don’t need “tax relief,” because that implies taxes are onerous. What we need is Tax Simplification. That implies the truth: that taxes are too complicated.

Taxes, as they stand now, are complicated enough that at this time of year you may find tax kiosks in the grocery store — convenient, and a friendly reminder that Joe Average shouldn’t do his taxes alone. Some tax deductions and credits are sufficiently complicated that many eligible people do not claim them. The new rules on taxation of stock dividends are so complicated that some brokerage houses had to send corrected tax statements to customers. And of course, may we all have mercy upon someone whose stock options at work put them in that taxation twilight zone called AMT (Alternative Minimum Tax).

Although some people argue that the clearest path to Tax Simplification is a flat tax, I think there is a more politically tenable path. The goal of Tax Simplification is not to put accountants out of work. The goal of Tax Simplification is to make it easier for average people to file and pay their taxes. Ideally, half of all taxpayers should be able to do their taxes on a one page form, using tools no more complicated than a pencil, a calculator, and maybe a bit of scratch paper.

The results of this are more than giving you more time in April. By simplifying taxes, compliance will improve: more people will file taxes earlier, they will be more accurate, audits will be focused only on returns that need it, fewer tax scams will exist. Taxes will seem more fair because the method for calculating them will be plain and simple. Government expenses go down: the tax code will be shorter and cheaper to print; enforcement will be easier because the rules will be clearer, non-contradictory, and uniformly applied; fewer cases will end up in tax court. IRS agents can spend less time on personal tax returns, and more time finding corporate tax fraud — or better yet, more time getting into the financial affairs of criminals and terrorists.

The first step of my plan would be to make the standard deduction equal to the poverty line for a family of four, adjusted accordingly each year. Exemptions would work more or less as they do now. The result of this is that people who live in poverty would not be taxed. Nor would anyone ever be “taxed into poverty” again. This insures that people living on the edge can use every bit of their meager earnings to provide food, shelter, and necessities for their families. Their tax return will have fewer than a half dozen lines filled out, and will take less than 15 minutes to complete, including putting a stamp on the envelope.

Because the new standard deduction would be relatively high, most Americans would not have to itemize deductions. This reduces their paperwork and record-keeping substantially. It will also save average people money, because they will not spend money just to get a deduction. With little rework of the old 1040, anybody whose income is strictly from paychecks and interest on the savings –e.g., most people — can be looking at one page of tax paperwork. People with complicated tax situations, such as owning a small business or having capital gains, will still have to fill out additional forms. View it as the cost of making money.

This system would also make most tax credits obsolete, because most tax credits are focused on relatively low-income families. Take them out of the tax code. Likewise, most deductions should be re-examined. Perhaps we should consider a cap on the mortgage interest deduction equal to the prevailing interest rate plus one percent on the maximum conventional house loan. Thus, home ownership is still promoted, but the ownership of McMansions is not subsidized and the housing bubble is not pumped up. Or cap itemized deductions at three times the standard deduction.

Better yet, eliminate all itemized deductions except for a short list of things over and above the generous standard deduction. Put the lines for these special items right on the 1040: IRA contributions; health insurance expenses; no more than 3 or 4 top priorities to be named at a later date. These items should be things we can all agree are important and of benefit to all.

Once the overall deduction scheme is streamlined, two important things happen. First, the wealthiest among us pay their fair share of taxes. Second, there will be no more need for the AMT. It can be eliminated.

In the meantime, you can download that tax form you are missing from these guys.

Greetings, and welcome to all readers. In particular, Thanks and Welcomes to new referrers, LeaderLog and Elisa Camahort.

A special thanks to some of the folks who have linked to me, and the folks who have clicked through. This includes Renpro, Paxtonland, Jay Currie, foomart, Fecundity, and Jerry Kindall.

I’d also like to extend a special welcome to those who clicked through from Google, Blogdex, Technorati, and Weblogs.