Category: Random Thoughts

They say the devil is in the details, and strangely enough we aren’t getting to see those details.

Florida Governor Jeb Bush is fed up with the rapid increases in state Medicaid expenses. Medicaid, you may recall, is supposed to be a safety net for the health care of Americans near and below the poverty level. The number of Floridians in this system has quadrupled over the last 20 years. The state portion of these expenses have increased 88% since 1998, while tax revenues have only risen 24%. It is not known how much of this increase is due to the Federal government shifting expenses to the states. In which case, Mr. Bush has his esteemed brother to thank.

Having much the same philosophy as his brother, Mr. Bush feels that this problem can be solved by getting private insurance companies involved. Poor people can theoretically choose from a variety of programs, with coverage and limits suiting their individual needs, and the state will pay the insurance company. Policies will pretty much work like any other health insurance policy, paying negotiated rates to doctors and hospitals.

A number of people are wary of this proposal, and for good reason. They fear this will limit the types of services available, since specialized services cost money, and money spent cuts profits. Of course the insurance companies want to make a profit if they are going to get involved in this thing. And certainly providers have a right to make a living from services they provide. From the TBO link above:

Hospitals are wary that the plan may leave them with more unreimbursed costs for indigent care, but representatives at facilities such as Tampa General Hospital said they were reluctant to comment until Bush’s plan is evaluated further.

There’s the problem. Nobody really knows how this program is supposed to work. Nobody knows how it will be paid for. Nobody knows how much it will cost. Nobody even knows if, in the end, it will be a proposal that insurance companies will want to participate in.

I have long felt that health insurance in particular drove up costs. It inserts a profit-driven middleman. It insulates people from insurance costs, and from actual healthcare costs. It drives up the overhead costs of doctors and hospitals. This proposal does nothing to mitigate these concerns. If Mr. Bush really wants to get the free markets involved in healthcare, he should consider giving the poor a stipend with which to pay for healthcare and/or healthcare insurance. They should get to keep what doesn’t get spent — maybe in one of those nifty Health Savings Accounts his brother is so keen on — but once it’s gone, it’s gone.

But since Medicaid is a safety net, that almost certainly will not work either.

In closing, why does American Airlines want to know who you might be visiting, and is it really a secret TSA regulation?

Robert Scheer asks Is Al Qaida Really All That? Or has the reality been distorted to scare us? Are we right now in the midst of a popular delusion?

The United States is not the first nation to consider privatizing a government run stipend program for the elderly. The good news is that we can learn from the mistakes of others. The bad news is such schemes have been a miserable failure in Britain, Argentina, and only moderately successful in Sweden (where the payroll tax is 18%, somewhat higher than here in the States).

Expenses for President Bush’s second inauguration are expected to run $40 Million. This figure apparently does not include $17.3 Million in expenses incurred by the District of Columbia including such items as police overtime and building reviewing stands. So $11.9 Million will have to come out of the District’s Homeland Security Funds. Keep in mind, the whole city has the potential to be a terrorist target, albeit a difficult target. By comparison, the District estimates it spent $8 Million on the last inauguration. Money is tight right now, the Federal Government is running record deficits, and security is so tight it’s cutting off circulation because after all “we’re at war.” Maybe this time, we could do without a big gala with parades and dances, and who knows what else. Let’s consider a nice little swearing-in in the Rose Garden with dignitaries and lots of cameras. That sure would be easier on the guy who is supposed to swear Bush in.

It isn’t exactly front page news, but the search for Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq is over without finding much of anything, despite earlier claims. So these American and Coalition soldiers and these Iraqi civilians (maybe more) and these contractors died for a lie. The democracy that we now claim to bringing to the Iraqi people is already a failure. Don’t get me wrong, Saddam was not a good man, but the current situation stinks.

And finally, a message for all the bloggers. I have little sympathy for everyone’s fired over his/her blog story, including the latest one, wherein he refers to his immediate supervisor in less than glowing terms. I offer the same advice for blogs as I give for e-mail: Don’t put anything in writing you wouldn’t want to read out loud to your mother, your boss, or a judge. Following these rules will help you avoid embarrassment, termination, and courtrooms.

Clearly, common sense isn’t common.

I spent the weekend in San Francisco, and would like to share some observations with you. I was a block off Union Square, in one of the few hotels that did not have a picket line. That narrows down where I stayed remarkably. Yes, it was loud; no, I didn’t particularly mind; no, at no time did I cross a picket.

We are not talking about workers who are striking to force an employer to agree to a massive increase of pay and benefits. These people are just trying to keep even. Even the Mayor is on their side, perhaps remembering that employees vote, but companies do not.

Expect this to get uglier before it gets solved, and expect this scene to become more common until such time as we solve the problem of rising health insurance costs, as well as employee benefits in general. The great irony is that employer provided insurance may drive the price of insurance up. As an experiment, dig out your employee benefits information and pay-stub, figure out what health insurance costs, and get an online quote for similar coverage.

It may be harder to get a job these days, but employees are tired of being treated as nothing more than a commodity.

Other points of interest:

Chinatown is well worth seeing — and shopping! A suitably short woman can even find clothes that fit without alteration. Top notch Chinese cuisine is of course available.

The Metreon is a fascinating gallery of all things Sony. Words do not adequately describe this Temple of Geek.

The San Francisco Apple Store has a variety of events. I attended a GarageBand seminar that was not meant for power-users, but I learned things. Thank you, Geoff!

If you are planning on being in San Francisco on November 20-21, you should absolutely consider attending the International Taiko Festival, sponsored by the San Francisco Taiko Dojo. I got to see a free concert in Union Square and it was amazing! I have been to percussion concerts before, but this was more like dancing with drums.

Finally, it was my pleasure to have lunch with Elisa Camahort. We — and our significant others — had a lovely time, good food, and great conversation.

The polls are barely open. I can’t tell you who will win the Presidential Election. But I can tell you one thing about him: he’ll be a Yale graduate.*

No, Yale is not the problem.

Yale is not exactly State University. It has high standards and even higher tuition. You know the mortgage company ad where the guy is selling everything he owns because his kid got into an “Ivy League” school? That’s the kind of place we are talking about. But George Herbert Walker Bush didn’t have to take out a second mortgage to send little Dubya. And even though John Kerry married a fabulously wealthy woman, he was by no means poor as a young man.

Even my favorite politician, Eliot Spitzer, is a Harvard graduate and hedge fund investor. You have to have a cool million in net worth before hedgies are allowed to let you invest. Slate describes him as having “the classic New York rich kid résumé.”

The bottom line is that you have to be wealthy to play in the game of politics. Contributions aside, how else can you afford to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to earn a job that pays $400,000 per year that you only get to keep 4 years?

It gets even worse at the state level. While a United States Senator makes a nice six figure salary, with which he must effectively maintain two residences, State Senators earn a pittance. In Texas, for example, the salary is $7200 per year. In North Carolina, a State Senator earns $13,951. These numbers are not unusual. And they can’t vote themselves an increase that would make the job anything less than a financial drain, because the headline would read something like “State Senate votes 300% pay increase.” Let the angry letters begin.

Oh, but those are part time jobs. Few states have full time legislatures. They are only supposed to be in session something like 3 months a year, depending on the state. Let me ask you something: How would your boss feel about letting you have 3 months off every year? Oh, and another 3 months off for campaign season every other year. Even if you offered to take the time off without pay, I think many employers would seriously look at replacing an employee who was gone that often. I am guessing most people can’t afford to do run for office, much less fulfill that office if elected.

And I haven’t even touched on what a political campaign can do to one’s personal life.

The fact that politicians are wealthy is not bad all by itself. But a man who has grown up with a trust fund has never had to carefully consider whether he can afford genuine Kraft Macaroni and Cheese. He has never worried about next month’s rent/mortgage. He has never wondered where he will come up with the money for necessities. He has never had to pawn anything, never considered a “payday loan.” In short, no matter how much he sympathizes with those among us who struggle, he will never completely understand what it is like. He may well feel a great duty to the poor, but in all likelihood he has no frame of reference for what things can truly help them.

Remember to vote today, alright?

*What, you don’t think Nader has a chance, do you?

Today was a really exciting day in the future of human exploration of space. Space Ship One did it’s second flight with (simulated) passengers in less than 2 weeks, earning the Ansari X Prize.

The craft was designed by aircraft design genius Burt Rutan — who by the way has a space station design rolling around his office — and funded by eccentric billionaire Paul Allen. Of course sticklers for accounting will note that Mr. Allen put up over $20 Million to win part of a $10 Million prize.

This is important for a number of reasons. First, it should be clear that the Space Shuttle and Soyuz craft are nearing the end of their useful design life. The need to fix stuff and carry on with experiments in Earth orbit will not go away just because we humans are driving a proverbial old beater to get to work.

Second and more important, they did this without any backing from any nation, and minimal corporate backing. No members of the G8 signed off on this. No Boeing or Lockheed engineers did any work on it. They didn’t get truckloads of parts from Pratt and Whitney or from GE. In fact, Virgin Atlantic — er, I mean Galactic only got involved last week. They did this on a shoestring budget. At least a shoestring in astronomical terms. They proved it could be done this way: low budget and government free.

But is this a place that mega-money will be made in the next decade or so? Remember, endorsements aside, Mr. Allen is in the red on this project. Whether Mr. Branson makes money on his flights remains to be seen. Some financial whizzes say that air travel is a money hole all by itself, so it does stand to reason that space travel would be even more so. And the opportunities to invest in the future of space travel are scarce.

As much as many of us would love to go into space, I think we’ve got a bit of a wait for those super saver weekend getaway tickets.

Alrighty folks, this is more important than whether or not Dan Rather got sucked in by some forgeries. It effects more American citizens than the fact that 1035 and still counting American soldiers have died in a war based on a faulty premise. In fact it falls somewhere between what will happen when Alan Greenspan announces an interest increase today and the current fear-mongering regarding terrorism and the upcoming elections.

Bruce Schneier has been a busy fellow, having a commentary on the Trusted Traveller system in The Boston Globe and this brilliant piece on the No-Fly List over at Newsday. If you only remember one thing from either of these items, let it be this quote:

Imagine a list of suspected terrorists so dangerous that we can’t ever let them fly, yet so innocent that we can’t arrest them – even under the draconian provisions of the Patriot Act. This is the federal government’s “no-fly” list.

There it is. If they are terrorists, arrest them and charge them with something. If they are not, get them off the list. But don’t pretend this list makes you safer. Not only does it assume that terrorists will fly under their real names, it shifts TSA attention from people acting suspiciously to people who happen to have a particular name. That’s right, it makes you less secure.

The Trusted Traveller system has similar fatal flaws. It assumes that only good guys can get the bit of paper. It forgets how many people live perfectly normal lives before turning to violence.

Of course, the idea that a bit of paper makes you Not-A-Terrorist is under assault from others as well. Take the case of John Gilmore, who not only wants to know why the airline wants to see his identification, he wants to know why he’s not allowed to see the law that allegedly requires him to show it. The Justice Department still wants to keep the whole case secret. But how can ordinary citizens follow secret laws? Indeed, one editorial asks “Are we even to be arrested for violating ‘secret’ laws, which we couldn’t possibly know existed?”

In the meantime, anybody who needs to fly had better have their bits of paper in order and be prepared to remove their shoes and jackets, and be prepared for a pat-down. Strangely, this particular story, which effects millions of air travelers, is being covered primarily by local tv news teams, rather than the big news sources. By way of comparison, CNN’s top news stories as I write include details of a murder trial, a man falling at the Grand Canyon, and Bill Gates getting a raise. With no disrespect to the people involved, odds are very good none of these stories has any impact on you whatsoever.

Even more bothersome to me is the public reaction to this treatment: “It’s alright, as long as it makes us all safer.” I fail to see any way that removing jackets makes anyone safer. As for pat-downs, I would be very interested in seeing the guidelines deciding who must be physically searched in this manner. I would also be curious to see how the rules are applied, as there is plenty of room for abuse of this opportunity to feel up random strangers.

Finally, do you remember when a series of bad storms or other disasters would have been considered a Sign From God? This guy does.

I get really tired of people who think that rules are for other people. It’s alright for them to turn right on red without stopping or signaling. It’s ok for them to have a full cart in the supermarket express line. Their dogs don’t need leashes. They don’t understand how the homeowner’s association can tell them to mow the lawn, or what kind of shingles they can put on the roof, or that they can’t put disabled vehicles in the yard. Ironically, these people are usually the loudest to scream when somebody else does something discourteous in traffic, or takes too long to write a check at the cash register. They are outraged if someone leaves dog doo in their yard. They will howl about property values should a neighbor choose an “endearing” purple and lavender paint scheme.

These discourteous souls I can dismiss with a deep breath. The thing that really peeves me is when business owners pull such stunts. Some choose to break the law, willfully or through ignorance: “I didn’t know I needed a license to run a mutual fund”; “I won’t rent my property to an unmarried couple because of my religion”; “The ventilation system the city requires is too expensive”. Others simply whine about the law, demanding an exception for themselves alone: “I need a bigger sign than the law allows”; “I hire so many people in this town I deserve a tax break”. Some businesses even do both, breaking the law while lobbying for special treatment.

Make no mistake. If you run a business, it is your duty to read, understand, and follow all the laws that apply to your business. Failure to do so can result in personal injury, lawsuits, fines, getting arrested, or being put out of business. I have no sympathy for a business that chooses to ignore zoning rules, signage regulations, safety requirements, licensing issues, or any special rules that may apply to specific types of businesses. I frankly have less sympathy for businesses who “didn’t know” about these things.

Many people will protest that some laws are unreasonable if not just plain dumb. Whenever I see a “dumb” law I remind myself that somebody thought it was important enough to make law. Someone had to write it out; some legislators or city council members had to vote on it; somebody had to sign it. Any person or business owner who feels that a law is genuinely unreasonable is hereby encouraged to lobby for its repeal. This is different than trying to get exempted from the law, because repealing bad law benefits everyone.

If you don’t want to follow the law, nobody is forcing you to run a business.

The Washington Insurance Commissioner has officially done the right thing: he has denied Premera Blue Cross’s bid to become a for-profit insurer.

It took 56 pages to say “that’s a really lousy idea that will cost people money.” Basic logic says that if the company wants to be profitable at the end of the year instead of just “even,” rates must go up or expenses must go down. Perhaps both. Either way, policyholders lose.

To me, what is more interesting are the figures in the local news coverage: they insure 1.2 million people; they are the sole coverage for 850,000. In contrast, they spent $35 Million trying to become for profit. That’s $29 per person they insure that did not help a single person get medical care. To me it represents $29 too high a premium paid. They also spent $125 Million on the rollout of a new insurance plan. That’s another $104 that didn’t pay for a single office visit, medication, or treatment.

A total of $133 in wasted premiums. And they wonder why the Insurance Commissioner won’t let them become a for-profit company.

The Osaka, Japan school district is apparently going to start using RFID chips to track children. Here’s the story. Here’s another version. In short, tags will be in students coats or book bags. The tags will be monitored by devices at the school gates or doors.

Before you go running to buy raw materials for tin-foil hats, and before you call your broker to buy a bunch of RFID company stock, here’s what I think you need to know.

What this technology will do: It will track the tagged item as it enters and leaves the school. It may also note the time that the tagged item was scanned.

What this technology will not do: It will not tell “bad guys” where a child is; It will not tell parents or school officials where a child is; It will not prevent kidnappings; It will not locate missing children.

The shortcomings of this technology are: It depends on the child remembering to take the tagged item to school and remembering to take it home again; It assumes that the tagged item and the child are in the same place; It is an expensive alternative to a class roll call. Anyone expecting this initiative to reduce truancy or keep kids safe will be disappointed.

In other news, the headquarters of the National Enquirer and several other tabloids is now free of anthrax. I always felt that targeting this facility was a sign that the anthrax mailer must not be American born. Think about it. Most people do not take these “newspapers” seriously. However, if your native language was not English, you might look at the fact that there are several papers on every supermarket checkout produced by the same publisher and think to yourself “Aha! I have found the American propaganda engine!”

Just my personal opinion.

Today, a handful of news outlets reported a strange story of a man and the big fish that got away. Unfortunately, this fish got away after having been caught, processed, put on ice, carefully wrapped, put in a cooler, secured with rope, and passed through airport security. Here it is in all it’s glory, coverage from the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Seattle Times, and the Associated Press. Twice.

You might be tempted to write this off — as Continental Airlines did — as “Big deal. Luggage sometimes doesn’t make it to it’s destination, and sometimes luggage doesn’t contain what people thought it did when they left for the airport.” But it is a big deal. People don’t misplace 40 pounds of fish, they don’t leave it in their hotel rooms. And the cooler didn’t vanish, just it’s contents. The fisherman is right when he says this is a security problem.

If 40 pounds of fish can vanish from a cooler without somebody saying so much as “Hey, Buddy, where’d you get the fish?” then what is there to stop 40 pounds of [insert scary biological, chemical, or radioactive agent of choice here] from showing up in a cooler? Seriously. Most people can’t put 40 pounds of fish in their pocket and act like nothing’s wrong. Somebody had to notice this, and that someboedy chose to say nothing. We live in an era when scribbling possible dialog for your novel in the margin of your crossword can get you a stern talking to from the not-so-friendly folks at the TSA, and yet beyond the security line, dozens of pounds of who-knows-what moves in and out, unmonitored.

It is past time to consider security beyond the security checkpoint. Don’t make me spell it out.