If the situation in Iraq is not a fiasco, nor a quagmire, then would somebody kindly tell me what must be added to the situation to make it so? Can we at least say it’s a SNAFU?
Just a quick review. It’s been a over a year since a largely American force stormed into Iraq to liberate its people from a brutal dictator, and/or find Weapons of Mass Destruction, and/or root out Al Qaida cells, and/or put oil fields in friendly hands. It has been a year since Saddam Hussein was toppled, just short of a year since President Bush declared hostilities over, and just short of 5 months since Hussein himself was dragged out of a hole in the ground (longer, if you put credence in the date theory).
The rebuilding effort has been spotty at best: the nation as a whole still does not consistently and reliably have things like electricity, potable water, schools, navigable roads, and the like. The only people who seem to be benefitting from the reconstruction of Iraq are certain contractors. Heck, they even have a problem keeping police officers alive. American soldiers, some of whom are looking at extended tours, are only safe inside the fortified “green zone.” As of this writing 650 of them are known to have died. Do not blink; this number is subject to rapid change, particularly inasmuch as 51 have been killed just this week. The families of these brave men and women deserve the sincere sympathies and kind thoughts of us all.
These things being true, the United States is still trying to ram through a single, democratic government that will nevertheless leave a government friendly to government interests. This ignores several basic facts. Iraq is made up of 3 basic ethnic groups that hate each other (Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds — and the first two have decided to declare truce long enough to oust the Americans). They have radically different ideas about what their ideal government should be about, fundamentally different ideas about the role of religion in government. Heck, they have radically different ideas about whether women should have human rights. Frankly, the only way to forge these peoples into one country is a strongman dictator. Rather like the one we deposed. Single, democratic government friendly to American interests? The combination platter isn’t available.
Now, what is one of the basic freedoms we enjoy in a modern democracy? Why, there’s freedom of the press! So, if we are trying to build a democracy in Iraq, it makes no sense to shut down a newspaper, even if it prints things the interim government doesn’t like. You won’t catch the Federal Government trying to shut down, oh, lets say the Fort Worth Star Telegram because they printed a critical essay. But those rules don’t apply in Iraq, where the Americans shut down a newspaper for printing items critical of the Americans. This of course was a marvelous excuse for general rioting, not to mention a power grab by a young cleric and Future Dictators Club member called Moqtada al-Sadr. The Americans didn’t much care for this either. Being a cleric, it was only normal for al-Sadr to take sanctuary in a Mosque. His followers being militants, it was completely predictable for there to be shots exchanged between the Mosque and the Americans who demanded al-Sadr be handed over. The term “Branch Davidians” comes to mind, but a more correct cultural translation would be if the Army had surrounded and started shelling the Boston Arch Diocese to force them to surrender all suspected pedophiles.
Add to this mix the fact that Islam, like Christianity and Judaism, has a major religious holiday right around the first full moon after the Spring Solstice. This means pilgrims are converging on the embattled city of Kerbala. Some even blame the Americans for engineering this crisis to disrupt the holy days.
Oh, and one more thing. Various forces have begun the time honored tradition of taking political hostages. Indeed, they are threatening barbaric deaths for the hostages, such as being beheaded or lit on fire. The Japanese are not happy about this. They are not alone either. Political turmoil in Iraq has now streamed over the physical border. Events there dominate the top news stories of almost any source that covers world news. Stock markets on 3 continents have been effected. Politicians past and present are letting their thoughts be known.
It seems clear now that there was a grievous under-estimation of what it would take to liberate Iraq, re-stabilize it, and make it a member of the international community. The number of troops required was more than expected. The length of time the troops would be there was more than expected The amount to rebuild was more than expected. The resistance to American “interference” was more than expected. And of course, the Weapons of Mass Destruction that were found were much much less than expected. For their part, President Bush and Donald Rumsfeld maintain that everything will be under control shortly. It sure must be nice to handle a high pressure always-on-call job from your fishing hole.
We may still hand Iraq over for self-rule on June 30. But June 30 of what year?
interesting post