bmagnus

Piggy Piggy Piggy

Or, Thoughts on Swine Flu and a Possible Pandemic Thereof.

There is growing concern about a swine flu outbreak in Mexico that has already crossed the border into our country. Dozens of cases in the States and more overseas have been confirmed. Preliminary reports seem to indicate that there may be a higher than typical death rate from this strain (this may be caused by economic factors rather than some greater virulence). Official CDC updates are available via Twitter.

An additional cause for concern is the level of preparedness in this country. Since some sources say we have a shortage of doctors in even the best of times, this could be a really big deal. Of course it doesn’t help that pandemic preparedness funds were opposed by certain Republicans. Oh, and a few Dems. I guess they don’t understand that the rain falls on the good and the bad alike — and more to the point rich people get sick too.

Oh, and this could adversely impact the economy, too. As if we need more problems.

The CDC is advising people to take the same normal precautions they would take against colds and flu: wash your hands; stay home if you are sick; don’t send sick kids to school.

On a happier note, mambo! Oink, Oink!

In closing: Sorry kid, talk to the King about changing your name to Sonic when you turn 18; and City Shrinkage.

Happy Earth Day

It would have been easy to miss the fact that it’s Earth Day. It doesn’t get much attention anyway, and that’s a shame. If there’s one thing we all have in common, it’s that we live on Earth.

But as we live in a world where our atmosphere is increasingly out of whack, where coyotes and cougars are more commonly seen in suburban neighborhoods, where there are cities so polluted they literally shorten the lives of the inhabitants, where the water isn’t doing much better than the land, where we are forced to buy expensive fuels that foul our air from nations that don’t like us very much (and yet some complain that somehow it would hurt the economy to change that), we probably ought to pay more attention.

Today, the President told us that we can improve our environment and our economy at the same time by converting to renewable energy. Yesterday, conservative hot-spot South Dakota approved a $700 million wind farm. Around the world, millions of people are celebrating Earth Day, even if most Americans wouldn’t know it.

Whether you respect our planet as the creation of God, or merely a place we humans cannot live without, give a thought for Earth Day.

In Closing: Why is anybody shocked that the President wants to see to it that laws are followed?; on black swans and not black swans; if waterboarding works, how come we had to do it to one guy over 180 times in one month?; Business Week asks how much we’ll lose on TARP, but the answer is most of it; 5 tips for applying for an SBA loan, but all you need is #5 (be prepared to put up the house); how Canadian banks avoided the worst of our problems; universal health as a stimulus plan; loan modification plans as a bank windfall; believe it or not the rate of Chapter 13 bankruptcy is down; our “conservative” Supreme Court limits the rights of cops to search cars on pure traffic stops; note the huge gap between top quintile income and top 1% income and then tell me how taxing the top earners is bad (boohoo, get a tax shelter); credit card fee reforms might actually happen (and benefit consumers); and last, our thoughts go to the family of David Kellermann, who took the coward’s resignation from Freddie Mac last night.

Thoughts for Tax Day

Ok folks, this is teabagging. It’s also not really safe for work.

So it turns out that most Americans are OK with big government, and almost half of us think we pay about the right amount of taxes. All things considered, that’s a remarkably high percentage

That being the case, what the heck is with these anti-tax “tea parties”? Is it in fact a faux-grassroots (tea tree roots?) movement? Have you noticed that most of the pictures are really close up, so you can’t tell if there are dozens or thousands of people present? Is anyone actually serving any tea? Because I could really use a cup right about now.

When you really boil off the ethers, the “tea party” crowd appears to be saying “what has the government done for us?” Indeed, I think it was put best in Monty Python’s Life of Brian:

All right, but apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, a fresh water system, and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?

Just insert Government where the original says Romans. See?

Bloody Romans Government.

Look. Here’s who is paying taxes. Here’s where that tax money is going. Here’s what the President would like to do with the tax code. Of course I have an alternate idea, but it’s never going to happen.

If you seriously think your taxes are too high, what do you propose be cut? Roads (got helicopter?)? Give up public schools and live with the fact that even if you can afford private schools, most of the next generation’s workers will be illiterate? Give up city sewers, and all the power generated by Hoover Dam? Hire your own security team and get a sprinkler system, because police and fire department are both government? Food safety (not that they’ve been doing a great job, but you know)? I imagine property inspectors would be in demand, because building inspection is another government function.

Do the “tea baggers” even really know what they are protesting?

In fact, if you want to see how well things run when there is no government, take a good hard look at Somalia.

Follow up: Chuck Butcher has some interesting observations about the “crowds” too.

In Closing: how likely is Gramma to be online?; it’s almost iced coffee season; a creepy Japanfilter, kids playground on former execution site; a slow-motion environmental disaster; a quirk of the current recession is that more men are losing their jobs than women (perhaps because the men had relatively high wages compared to the women?); where to find pirates; Goldman Sachs joins the list of banks trying to pay back the TARP money; international travel may be difficult for some Bush Administration figures; extremists suck; study says charter schools close over money, not academics, but neglects the fact that the money wouldn’t be a problem if they had students, and having students would be easy if they had good academics; how to scare people about cyber-terrorism; and COLBERT in space.

Finally, I may have missed Blog Against Theocracy Weekend. However, I think the most important thing you need to know about theocracy is how well it “works” in Afghanistan. Theocracy is not good. That’s why the First Amendment specifically protects us from government mandated religion.

My Shorties Valentine 3-D

Cola Deconstructed: The nice folks at Beachbody have a few things to say about soda pop, one of the biggest calorie sources in the American diet. Let them run down the ingredient list, and then maybe have a nice cool glass of iced tea.

And now for something completely different: Tastespotting. Hey, if you are going to consume lots of calories, they should be really delicious! Besides, pictures can’t make you gain weight… can they?

While we’re on the topic of food: Next season’s Top Chef will attempt to prove they’ve not jumped the shark by having a “masters” series. Judges will include Neil Patrick Harris and Morgan Spurlock. Competitors will include Roy Yamaguchi and Wylie Dufresne. No word yet on whether I’m setting up the DVR for this.

Huh, it’s a while till lunch, isn’t it: Hospital food could be as bad for you as whatever put you in the hospital.

This final thought about food: Studies finally admit what many have suspected for a while. Food safety is “no longer improving.”

Japanfilter!: It’s been too long, hasn’t it? Amazing Modern Samurai, My Japanese Coach for DS, and Please Don’t Trample the Geisha.

Gun Control is about Aim: Thank [Diety] he was as bad a marksman as he was an English student! “The man who gunned down 13 people at an upstate New York immigration center fired 98 shots from two handguns in a little more than a minute, police said Wednesday.” Imagine the carnage if he were actually a decent shot.

Way to Not Get It, Chrysler: The only new car in the 2010 lineup? An SUV that gets a whopping 20 MPG. Gee guys, don’t knock yourselves out. There’s only a huge list of SUVs that get better mileage than that.

Silver Lining?: The current economic woes are having one good effect. It’s sharply reducing the trade deficit. We’re already down to levels not seen since 1999.

Be Afraid If You’re Brown: Can you prove you are a United States citizen with things you normally keep in your wallet? It turns out most people can’t.

On a Kindle, nobody knows you’re reading schlocky romance novels: As much as 50% of electronic books sold might be romance novels!

Something new for you to read: The Awesomer.

The ACLU Doesn’t Want the TSA taking the Ultimate Upskirt Pix: Ok, actually they are against new see-thru camera technology. Your choice is to let them look at you nude through your clothes, or let them fondle you pat you down.

I don’t usually follow sports, but: Imagine a young man who works hard and overcomes injuries. He finally lands his dream job. The first full day of work, everything goes great! Everybody is happy with his performance. But all that is cut short when, mere hours later, he is killed by a drunk driver. Don’t drink and drive. Don’t let people you know drive drunk. Do call the cops when you see a drunk driver.

And one last thing: The economy is lousy and lots of people are out of work. Those that do have jobs are under a lot of stress. Take care of yourself, people. Someday we’ll look back at 2008 and 2009, laughing about what awful times those were. In the meantime, reach out for help. Or reach out to help, where you can. We’re all in this together.

The Whole Country’s Going to Pot

Before I get going, let me make something perfectly clear. I don’t do drugs. I have never purchased illegal drugs. I have never used them. The closest I’ve ever gotten to smoking a joint is walking through an apartment or dorm hallway late on a Saturday night — which would probably have made me test positive for pot. I rarely use painkillers more potent than Ibuprofen. I’ve never even bought a pack of cigarettes — my friends and I tried when we were 5 but were thwarted by the clerk at the White Hen Pantry (I got in trouble for crossing the street, too). If it weren’t for the fact that I do like booze, I’d be straight edge.

Even so, I support the decriminalization, legalization, and regulation of marijuana.

I was very dissapointed to hear the President make light of the millions of people in this country who agree with me, and with well educated people like former Seattle Police Chief Norm Stamper.

Now, keep in mind, I am not saying “oh just repeal all the drug laws and let us have all the hard stuff we want!” I am saying that marijuana can and should be legal, subject to variations of laws already on the books pertaining to cigarettes and alcohol: minimum age to purchase; clearly labeled THC content; the Surgeon General’s warning against smoking; limitation on what sorts of fillers or additives can be used; regular inspections of the farms, preparation facilities, and suppliers; licenses (and license applications!) for the retail sellers; subject it to taxes; jailtime for people who circumvent the rules, provide it to kids, drive while high, or cause injury to someone while high.

Here are some of the things I think would happen if this were done, from source to end user:

Farmers would have additional, legal crops they could grow. Not only could they grow pot legally, they could grow industrial hemp. Hemp is an old crop, friendly to the environment, with lots of uses. Hemp can be used to make stuff like rope and fabric and paper. George Washington and Thomas Jefferson both grew it. Both would make great crops for farmers transitioning out of things like tobacco here, or opium in Afghanistan.

It would take production out of our neighborhoods and forests. The ability to grow the stuff in a legit farm takes the profit motive out of turning private homes into illegal farms in our neighborhoods, using lots of electricity and bringing criminal elements into residential communities. Likewise, there is little reason to start a pot farm in a national forest when you have competition from legit farms, you can’t sell to legit suppliers, and the market for illegal supplies has dried up.

It would provide legit jobs for farm hands and workers at processing facilities. We could use some job creation, right?

It would take money out of the underground economy, and put it into the regular economy. Not only would it reduce the number of ways illegal enterprises have to make money, our states and communities would benefit from more tax dollars. Since it seems like just about every community and state has a budget shortfall these days, that seems like a good thing too.

It would keep drugs out of the hands of kids! Instead of being available from that shady guy on the corner, it’s behind the counter at the mini-mart with the cigs, or it’s behind the counter at the liquor store. The nice lady at the White Hen Pantry doesn’t want to lose her job or cost her boss’s pot resale license, so she won’t sell it to the group of kindergartners that wandered in from the apartment complex across the street.

It will reduce the number of people — of all ages — using harder stuff. Let’s face it, the shady guy on the corner who sells pot would really rather sell you higher margin products that ensure more repeat business through addiction. Stuff that is substantially worse for you than marijuana.

It will have a positive influence on the War On Drugs. There will be fewer fronts on which to fight. It will save thousands of millions of dollars each and every year. It will help slow the rapid filling of our prisons with largely non-violent offenders (who after prison find themselves unable to get college financial aid, and in some cases unable to get a Real Job that would permanently keep them out of prison).

It will reduce the influence of criminal organizations both here and in other nations. Legalization chops off their product and their customer base. This will inevitably reduce the flow of money to Mexico’s drug lords, and help their government regain full control of the country. How did America destroy the mob’s influence? It repealed prohibition.

It will bring thousands if not millions of people into compliance with the law. “Just Say No” never worked for anything, and that includes smoking pot. Legalization will change the fact that all those people are breaking the law, and turn them into people who are paying taxes on products.

It is the compassionate thing to do for people who really need it. Nobody disputes that pot is a great pain reliever, nor that it stimulates the appetite and reduces nausea. Some claim that there are legal drugs that do the job just as well, but others dispute that. It is worth noting that the Obama Administration has already decided against prosecuting medical marijuana cases. It’s hard to listen to some of the anecdotal stories of how medical marijuana made someone able to survive, or simply allowed them to die without pain and still think it’s bad.

That’s one person’s opinion. Take it or leave it.

In Closing: advice for people who don’t like gay marriage; a tale of two depressions; double standards; one in five pre-schoolers is not just overweight, they’re obese!; homelessness is up all over; 10 cars that could have saved Detroit 10 years ago (if Forbes were honest with themselves); Ezra Klein on how we cleverly hide our health care waiting lines; and finally, if you haven’t already spoken out on the “conscience” rules for health care “providers” about to go into effect, do it today. I wrote about it here, and it’s not dead yet.

Ok, the Economy is Bad

On one hand, it’s nice to see people agree with me. On the other hand, I wish the economy would turn around.

We’ve had 15 months of fewer jobs, pushing the unemployment rate nationally up to 8.5%. It is of course worse in some places than others. Remember, these figures don’t include people who simply never were able to find a job upon entering the workforce. If we use the most conservative number economists think we need for those new people, we’re talking about 1,875,000 jobless people unaccounted for. The actual number might be as high as 3,000,000. Nor do the official unemployment numbers include the millions of people who have given up looking for work. Some sources are predicting double digit unemployment unless we have “systemic reforms.”

Some companies are choosing to cut benefits such as 401k contributions rather than cutting more jobs. I think this is a sign that viable companies have already cut all the jobs they can and still conduct business.

As a direct result of increasing joblessness, we have 1 in every 10 Americans on Food Stamps. Yeah, I am guessing that any movement to make those people submit to random drug screening is dead.

Another direct result is a larger than expected growth in bankruptcy filings. A quite understandable result of that is credit card companies slashing the credit lines of people who have accounts in good standing. They don’t want to find themselves on the hook for money that people may not be able to pay in the future. Of course the other side of that is that a credit card may mean the difference between making it through a rough patch and economic disaster. Paid back with interest. A true double-edged sword of Damocles.

Perhaps a factor, perhaps a result, we now find out that there is a serious delinquency problem not just on sub-prime mortgages, but standard ones as well! Would they have ever been a problem if not for the subprime mess or the job losses? I doubt anyone will ever know. The important thing to remember is that this bodes ill for the housing market on the national level until the economy recovers and perhaps a year beyond as the properties in question are foreclosed and resold.

Robert Reich is just the latest economist to go out there and call it a Depression. He joins The Economist magazine (hardly an alarmist lot), Eric Sprott, Frederic Mishkin (who says this is actually worse than a depression), and others.

There are a couple of bright spots. In truth, they are really “not quite as dismal” spots, but let’s take what we can get. Some companies are offering “free services” to the unemployed. Locally, Kinkos has offered resume printing, and a daycare has offered a free day so people can go to job interviews.

Another good thing is that for the first time in some years, Congress has actually passed a budget before the beginning of the fiscal year in October. It’s not the final version, and the Republicans are still calling for “restraint” (without offering much in the way of details beyond “spend less”), but it’s something. It’s worth noting what happens to our deficits when the Republicans get their way on the budget. So much for “fiscal responsibility” and “reducing debt.”

At least Wall Street is happy.

In Closing: the ACLU guide to the rights of women; which is very much in contrast to the “rights” women “enjoy” in Afghanistan; two items from Seeing the Forest on food are don’t listen to scary people who say the feds want to take away your right to garden and the effects of being a vegetarian for just one day; your meds might interact with grapefruit; North Dakota finally realizes it’s a bad idea for Zygotes to have the full range of human rights even if you are “Pro-life”; now that we know the Binghamton shooter was a disgruntled Vietnamese man who had trouble learning English, can we stop giving lip service to the nut to claimed responsibility in the name of the Taliban?; and finally, Defective Yeti’s always hilarious collected Bad Movie Reviews. I don’t know how he has the patience to read the reviews in the first place.

The Month Is Over Already?

Hard to believe it’s time for the month-end retrospective. So here’s March items you’ve been missing if you haven’t read ShortWoman for the last 5 years:

In 2004 I was talking about the Daddy Knows Best paternalism of the Bush era GOP.

In 2005 I had a lot to say about bankruptcy “reform”. These “reforms” put corporate interests above consumer protections, and probably contributed to our current credit and mortgage crisis. Interestingly enough, we have news that Congress is finally talking about reigning in some credit card abuses.

In 2006 I wrote about the First Amendment. One of these days I should really keep going through the Bill of Rights. I did make it all the way to the 4th (which, coincidentally, Bruce Schneier just wrote about).

In 2007, a lot of people enjoyed my post House of Cards.

And in 2008, I celebrated International Women’s Day, sort of.

In Closing: a great pre-review of the new Star Trek movie; 1895 Diary; poverty may effect kid’s brains (for counterpoint, I think Zig would disagree); ancient cliffside catacombs; a good first step in really fixing the banking crisis, reinstate Glass-Steagall, endorsed by those freakin liberals at Business Week; February in charts; surveillance towers planned for border towns like Detroit and Buffalo, but notably not for San Diego or El Paso; and the S&P 500 is livin it up while the businesses are goin down.

Happy April, everybody!

Bizarro Economy

Most of us know what the International Monetary Fund prescription for saving any given economy is, right? Drastically cut spending. No really, cut it. Slash it to the bone. Even military spending. Cut cut cut cut cut! This approach has opened them to criticism both from true conservatives and progressives.

So then, you know it’s a big deal on those rare occasions that the IMF tells a country they need to spend more money.

Yesterday, the IMF urged the 20 largest economies to spend more on stimulus, to the tune of 2% of their entire Gross Domestic Product. In addition, some central banks may need to take “unprecedented” measures.

Meanwhile, the GOP is railing against the Obama Administration’s first budget as spending way too much money: “Republicans say the path to prosperity is not the excessive spending proposed by President Obama but limited spending that holds down the growth of government, taxes and debt.”

Clearly what is happening to the economy — not just here but in all developed nations — is unlike anything that has happened in recent decades. The measures that got us out of recessions since the 80s are probably not enough to restore our economy to health.

Cross-posted at The Moderate Voice.

Important Update: the former Chief Economist of the IMF on world crises, how they compare to what is going on in the United States, and what must be done now. Very sensible stuff, but be warned that a) he’s an economist b) it’s in the Atlantic, so it may be a little dry for some readers. Try to make it through to the end, because it’s good.

The Shorties in Connecticut

Live from Riyadh: It’s King Abdullah! Great piece from Newsweek on the reigning monarch of Saudi Arabia.

Delicious Couch Potatoes: Looking for a cheap, no-equipment workout? Well, you could do a lot worse than 5BX. Thanks to MeFi for reminding me of it.

Amazing what one motivated guy with a good camera can do: He can take pictures of the International Space Station. From the ground. With no telescope. A friend remarked “And we still say we can’t find Saddam’s WMDs.” Well one thing is for sure, they aren’t at the ISS.

Vegetarians may skip this: stupidity is alive and well. I can’t believe that there are people that dumb who don’t self-Darwin. And I can’t believe an actual newspaper printed this. No wonder print media is doomed if this appeared outside the humor column.

When you want government money, you take attached government strings: unless of course you are super wealthy. Where was I? Oh yes, “Lawmakers in at least eight states want recipients of food stamps, unemployment benefits or welfare to submit to random drug testing.” If the tests were actually accurate (which they’re not) and cheap (where are cash-strapped states getting the money?) and the consequences were some sort of counseling program, I might think it was almost acceptable. As it is, I fear that such initiatives will result in people not applying for benefits to which they are entitled, children in these households doing without things like basic nutrition and a safe home, and desperate people turning to crime. While nobody is saying that illegal drugs are good, none of the probable outcomes of this proposal are good either.

A few random items on current economic conditions: the credit crisis was a heist? A delightful if simplified history of the world since World War 2 and how it resulted in the current mess from a new favorite site, Gin and Tacos. We’re up to 21 bank closures this year (it’s only 4 PM as I write, I may have to add to this later). Are the newest bailouts trying to bypass Congress? “Well, if we have to play by your rules you can take back your sucky old TARP money (that we swore we desperately needed).”

My opinion on buying troubled assets: the measure of a good plan is that it makes the recipients breathe in sharply in pain. My suggestion? Offer 10 cents on the dollar. Some of the banks should say “Wow, that’s harsh, but it’s better than nothing.” Others should say “You know, I think we can do without that,” as Ford said in response to the automaker bailout. That’s the sign that it’s on the right track. If all the banks are lining up for a piece of the action, the taxpayer is getting screwed. I guaranty it.

Delightfully Random: Cranky Thursday Musings made me laugh; as did the Evil Knievel stock chart action. I never know what to make of Ken Tanaka. And here’s a random thought for the biggest **** you know.

I’m not sure what’s stranger: a county DA has decided to charge 3 minor girls with kiddy porn for allowing themselves to be photographed. If convicted, these girls may have to be in a sex offender database for the rest of their lives:

One is a picture taken two years ago at a slumber party showing Marissa Miller (now 15) and her friend Grace Kelly from the waist up, both wearing white bras. The other depicts Nancy Doe (a pseudonym used to protect the girl’s real identity) standing outside a shower with a bath towel wrapped around her body beneath her breasts.

Skumanick actually offered the girls a deal. If they didn’t want to face charges, they could be placed on probation, subject to random drug testing, and attend a six- to nine-month re-education program dealing with pornography and sexual violence. The D.A. explained the objectives of that program in a letter he sent home to the parents. They include gaining “an understanding of what it means to be a girl in today’s society, both advantages and disadvantages,” and identifying “non-traditional societal and job roles.”

Now as strange as the whole thing sounds, they want to teach about “what it means to be a girl”? Does that phrase not raise anyone else’s neck hair? Please! The icing on this bitter cake is that the parents aren’t allowed to see the evidence. That would be disseminating kiddy porn.

Breaking News: UPS has decided they aren’t going to advertise on the O’Reilly show any more. They decided that supporting a show that had somebody stalked and threatened to kill people from an opposing network might be a bad thing.

And last item of the day: Cherry Blossoms.

Get Real About ID

My state legislature is currently debating Real ID. Specifically, they are wondering if they should bother to comply:

Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford, D-Las Vegas, said the bill would create an unfunded mandate that forces DMV to spend as much as $1.5 million of its own money to meet requirements of the federal law.

Finance Chairwoman Bernice Mathews, D-Reno, said that before she takes a vote on Senate Bill 52, she wants to check if the state can receive an exemption from complying with the law.

During a hearing, both liberal and conservative lobbyists condemned the proposal on the grounds it would violate citizens’ right to privacy.

Several complained Real ID licenses are the first step toward the insert of a radio frequency chip into licenses to allow government authorities to keep track of citizens’ whereabouts. The DMV denied that allegation.

The Real ID Act was passed by Congress in 2005 to prevent terrorists from acquiring legitimate identification cards. States now vary widely in the information they require people to provide before issuing them licenses. The act would standardize the information DMVs would collect.

“This is a silly law,” testified David Schuman, a lobbyist for the states’ rights activists group Nevada Committee for Full Statehood. “The government thinks they can create documents that al-Qaeda cannot duplicate. Osama bin Laden was a civil engineering graduate of London University. Al-Qaeda is not ignorant people.”

While counterfeiting is a legitimate argument against the effectiveness of Real ID, there are far more reasons to think it’s a bad idea. I won’t go into them all.

This system is based on the idea that Bad Guys all have fake identification, and indeed are almost always Not Americans.

How would Real ID have stopped the Unabomber?

How would Real ID have stopped Tim McVeigh?

How would Real ID have stopped William Krar? Sure, fake IDs were involved. The plot was uncovered because they were delivered to the wrong address. So he would have needed a better counterfeiter. Real ID might have made it harder to catch him.

How would Real ID have stopped either of these guys who tried to bomb banks?

How would Real ID have stopped the Fort Dix 6, most of whom were citizens?

How would Real ID have stopped any of the various people who have attempted to or succeeded in bombing women’s clinics?

Nobody can answer these questions, because Real ID would have barely slowed these plots down. Proving identity is not the same thing as proving someone is Not A Bad Guy.

It’s enough to make you wonder what the Real Purpose of Real ID is.

Follow Up: it turns out that the Department of Homeland Security is unsure how to implement Real ID.

In Closing: follow up, what is wrong with kids these days that they think a woman ever deserves to be beaten so badly she can’t go out in public? At least she’s got a restraining order, even if she doesn’t think she wants it; Carrie on Productivity and Reality; on SBA lending; “[The AIG bonuses are] about 55 cents per citizen, whereas TARP is about $2,333.33 per citizen.”; something is not rotten in the state of Denmark, and that would be the mortgage industry; the real AIG scandal.