Looks Like Rain

Most people don’t carry around an umbrella unless they think there’s a good chance of rain.

That being said:

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. board approved interim guidelines to help clarify its procedures for liquidating complex financial firms [edit: that is, “too big to fail” firms] when they collapse, including permitting better treatment for some creditors when it benefits the estate or broader economy.

More:

However, in the event of an impending implosion, the statute authorizes the FDIC to use U.S. taxpayer dollars to make partial payments to “healthy” counter-parties of the failing firm so that they wouldn’t go down with it. Once economic disaster is averted, the law requires the government to recoup the costs of the bailout by selling the bank’s assets and by collecting fees from big financial institutions with $50 billion or more in assets.

So then, the question as I see it is simple: which big bank does the FDIC expect to collapse? My money is on the one that declared last week that they were halting all foreclosures in all 50 states.

In closing: Mankiw is an idiot; what made them think that was a good idea??; I would rather take my chances with the slot machines; in denial; she can raise money but can she stop being crazy?; epilogue to cholesterol story; “I don’t know if he’s qualified to be on the Federal Reserve Board. He’s only got a Nobel Prize in Economics“; This Angry Season; and recovery.

Do Not Panic

Yesterday, two elementary students were injured when a nutcase wearing black and spewing nonsense about the President opened fire with a gun.

Mark my words, by Monday some parent will be insisting that outdoor recess be abolished as “too dangerous.” The argument will be nothing more than “What if something like this happens again?? Better safe than sorry!”

But before we start herding all the children into the gymnasium, let’s look at some facts. According to these guys, there are over 38,000,000 elementary school students in the United States. The nice folks at the Census (plus my pocket calculator) say it’s only 37,811,132. For simplicity’s sake, let’s just say 38 million. This doesn’t include high school students.

Now then, how many students have been injured by guns at an elementary school? This is sufficiently rare that a Google search for “elementary school gun” turns up a collection of stories of kids expelled for having guns, toy guns, water guns, BB guns, stories of gun scares, etc.. Add the word “injured” and yesterday’s item fills most of the first page. If we go to Wikipedia’s page on “school shootings”, we find that in the last three years exactly 34 people have been killed in school shootings, including incidents on college campuses and high schools, including faculty and other adult victims. In fact, there have only been 27 school shooting incidents on elementary, middle, junior high, and grade school campuses in the United States ever, including yesterday.

So, we have a literal less than one in a million chance of being shot at school. You have more chance of dying today in a car wreck than being involved in a school shooting ever.

By way of contrast, an American child has a one in 3 chance of being overweight or obese, putting them at increased risk of diabetes, heart disease, sleep apnea, cancer, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and a host of other life shortening problems.

You want to play the “won’t somebody think of the children” card? Send them outside for recess. Let them go play.

In Closing: Could you pass the citizenship test?; People other than me are calling the foreclosure mess fraud (perhaps the BAMTOR Principle will crumble and people will go to prison?); if everybody eats there then how come I never see them?; disconnected; demented; decline of business casual (it’s all your fault!); and smell like a monster.

Wouldn’t that be nice?

Taken at Clark High School in Las Vegas.

In Closing: Foreclosure mess (update, Bank of America has halted all foreclosures nationwide); new 300 year old Vivaldi concerto; progressive agenda; we have to be better; I hope the FDIC bankrupts these [redacted]; always check your work; on Afghanistan; 30% of unemployed have been out of work for at least a year, and the number of jobs in the economy went down last month (no wonder bankruptcies are up); good idea; speaking of food stamps; “none of the above“; new style CPR; sometimes it’s how you say it; and cell phones don’t and can’t cause cancer (“physics shows that it is virtually impossible for cell phones to cause cancer”).

Oh and one more thing! Surf over to Vegas Video Network to see my new show later today!

Out of the Clubhouse!

Attention! I have a very important announcement.

As a woman, a post-feminist, a human being, and the self-proclaimed ShortWoman, I hereby revoke the female credentials of both Christine O’Donnell and Sharron Angle. The charges are as follows:

  • Reinforcement of the very worst feminine stereotypes including flightiness and an inability to do math
  • Antics that would not be tolerated in a male political candidate of either party
  • Political views which are detrimental to all women, which if tested would almost surely be proven hypocritical
  • General Lunacy

In addition, Sharron Angle faces a charge of:

Christine O’Donnell faces two additional charges:

These things being true, I am kicking Mr. Angle and Mr. O’Donnell out of the female gender and request that they surrender all identification showing a female status immediately. I will gladly start the donation pool to send them to Thailand for surgery if needed. I expect that as men, their antics will no longer be considered “cute” and they will be seen for the stupid, opportunist people they are.

Education Roundup

This week, there’s been quite a buzz in education. Or perhaps it just seems that way since we have a new Superintendent of Schools in Clark County Nevada.

So lets start with President Obama feeling that part of the problem is that many schools are using outdated textbooks. Has basic reading or math changed recently? Will your child be laughed at for using an outdated form of Algebra? Sure, our understanding of science changes all the time. And foreign languages evolve — Latin excepted. As for history, does it matter inasmuch as they will never get to the last chapter anyway?

The same day, E. D. Hirsch argued that the new educational standards we are trying to formulate won’t amount to a hill of beans without a good curriculum to ensure that kids actually learn it. He’s an expert in both education and cultural literacy with a bibliography longer than my arm, so ignore him at your peril.

One problem with education is that the people who teach the teachers how to teach are failing to address the basics: things like classroom management and how to effectively meet the objectives of reforms like standardized testing. Or, “how to keep a job as a teacher.” In fact,”only 49 percent believe state governments should adopt the ‘same set of standards and give the same tests in math, science, and reading nationwide.'” Sorry professor. Colleges and modern employers expect a high school graduate to know certain things.

In Closing: Rest in Peace Tony Curtis; Happy Birthday Hoover Dam; health insurance changes; it’s not over ’til the crazy lady sings; I’ll have Honda on asphalt with mayo; Erik Scott leads to ch-ch-ch-changes; you can’t have both; on Social Security and Women; Kohl‘s is creating jobs (that’s more like it); why it’s a “bad thing” for household debt to decline (if you are an economist); once more the rich get richer; Dear Ben Stein, stop whining; worker’s health costs to rise 12% next year; and maybe the reason it “seems” that Americans don’t want jobs as migrant farm workers is that they don’t speak Spanish, don’t have “tractor skills” and like coming home to their families every night (certainly a barrier for single parents!). But we would rather pretend that it’s because we uppity high school and college grads are too good for back-breaking labor in an environment where only lip-service is given to labor laws.

Now I’m Allowed to Tell You

You are probably aware that some time back, Scott Whitney invited me to start cross-posting my weekly Vegas real estate summary — Friday Figures — to the Living in Las Vegas Blog and Podcast. About a month or so ago he wanted to talk to me about his super-secret new project.

Well, the project has officially been announced, and this weekend the Vegas Video Network will be starting to broadcast live and VOD programming. I will have a show on Friday afternoons called Getting REAL (Estate) in Vegas. In addition to talking about local real estate issues, I will have guests and talk about real estate in general. My first guest will be Bruce Cannon of WIN Home Inspection. If you have a question for him, a real estate question for me, or are interested in becoming a sponsor of my show, send me a comment or email.

Follow-Up and Vegas Miscellany

In a way I wish I had waited until today to write The BAMTOR Principle. By some weird coincidence a bunch of other people have also noticed that Banks Always Make Their Own Rules that don’t necessarily have anything to do with the law. It turns out that many people knew that Wall Street was selling mortgage backed securities that were destined to fail. But what HuffPo didn’t bother to point out is that what those banks and brokerages did was in violation of the law. This blatant double standard — “laws are for little people” — will continue until the Feds start putting people in jail, levying huge fines against individuals who signed off on breaking the law, and states sue for the right to prosecute violations of state law.

In light of this, the banksters have the chutzvah to say that breaking up “too big to fail” institutions would create more risk. Yeah, more risk for their jobs.

As far as the economy goes, it turns out that 74% of Americans agree with me that regardless of what the government says about GDP, we are still in a recession. It’s getting more obvious that the numbers are being gamed. But don’t expect any administration in the near future to start talking about what inflation, unemployment, and GDP really are, because then we would all understand what deep doo-doo we are standing in and probably vote a lot of bums out.

Of course you need to be careful about voting bums out, as Christine O’Donnell and Nevada’s own Sharron Angle illustrate. Congruent Angle? Sorry I’m running out of Angle jokes.

And that brings me to an armload of local interest items. Let’s start with the spectacular view from the Cosmopolitan. Down the Strip a little bit, be careful about sitting by the pool at CityCenter’s Vdara, or you may experience their unique “death ray.” If you are planning on getting off the Strip, you will want to at least look over these amusing tips. One of the restaurants I visit regularly has been reviewed again, and I only recognize two of the things they were served. I haven’t talked a lot about it, but I am keeping an eye on the case of Erik Scott, killed in broad daylight by Metro in front of a Costco in one of our most yuppified neighborhoods. By the way, last week’s CSI did a great job of addressing it and not addressing it.

In Closing: electromagnetic spectrum; lies your teachers told you; cheap food costs dear; abortion does not have dire emotional consequences; Israel cannot have its cake and eat it too; people don’t like health insurance reform because it didn’t go far enough!; True Mud; a few words on taxes; Professor DeLong nails the Republican view of America; have we tried the simple stuff first?; Jack LaLanne is 96 (was I the only one who noticed Drew Carey’s homage in the blue “speed suit”?); and medical ignorance.

The BAMTOR Principle

There’s a story I first heard told some years ago by Cokie Roberts. Perhaps you weren’t aware that both her parents were in the United States House of Representatives. Not at the same time, of course: her father was elected; upon his death her mother was nominated to take his vacated seat, and she was later re-elected several times in her own right. After she had been in the House for a while, she decided that she would like to have a condo in Washington where she could stay while Congress was in session. So she went down to the local bank to apply for a mortgage. She began to question some of the documents that were required of her, and the mortgage officer said they were required by federal law because she was a single woman applying for a mortgage. Rep. Boggs calmly replied something to the effect of “No dear, it’s against a federal law that I helped write!”

The BAMTOR Principle isn’t something that happens when language-challenged super-heroes get mad: it stands for Banks Always Make Their Own Rules. It was true in the mid-70s when Rep. Boggs tried to get a mortgage — how many women simply sighed and handed over the illegally-requested materials? Nothing has changed for the better.

This week GMAC, under it’s new identity as Ally Mortgage, announced that they were halting foreclosures in 23 states. A quick search revealed to me that those 23 states included every state where a foreclosure has to actually go in front of a judge, and many states where they must pass under the Sheriff’s eyes, but no states where it’s a simple matter of a Trustee’s Sale. The obvious conclusion is that their documents will not pass legal muster — but who cares if all you have to do is file papers with the County Recorder and have a sale?? It’s obvious to many observers that they failed to follow the law, in spite of “company policy” that they follow the law, and that this pattern of not giving a **** about the law has persisted for some number of years. Nor are they the only mortgage company with this problem.

Perhaps you’ve heard that Wells Fargo is trying to avoid the responsibility of selling homes they may or may not have the actual right to sell? Most people buy a home assuming that it is theirs and they can sell it to somebody else someday, but that might not be true here; regardless of how many places buyers initial the “bank addendum,” I smell a future lawsuit, particularly when the buyer’s mortgage company gets involved. No wonder banks prefer cash offers.

This brings up another interesting point of law that the banks don’t care to follow:

Now this little problem can be solved by title insurance, right? Well, guess what, some title insurers have exited the business, some others are starting to write policies with meaningful exceptions when they can’t go to the courthouse and find a clear chain of title. Oh, and Wells is trying to steer you towards their title insurer. What do you think the odds are that their title insurance policy doesn’t have exceptions?

A Federal law called RESPA says they can’t actually make you use their title company, but in practice good luck using any other title company. This particular fear is a little overblown because title companies use three standard policies, but the point is taken.

Nor is real estate the only realm where banks ignore the law. Earlier this month, remember that Goldman Scahs decided to graciously close down the proprietary trading unit that the financial services reform bill prohibited. And let’s not forget that back in the 90’s, the Citibank/Traveller’s merger was allowed go ahead most of a year before the actual law allowing such a merger was passed. There was barely a peep from regulators, who assumed that Congress would bend to the bankers’ wills.

When they can’t just outright break federal law without repercussions, they bend it. New rules on bank fees? Let’s just make some new fees!

Nor is it just Federal law that banks choose to ignore; they are perfectly willing to bypass state law as well. Bank of America (and Countrywide before them) has a nasty habit of foreclosing on the wrong house, mostly in Florida. As someone who lives in a neighborhood with a bunch of similar street names and its fair share of foreclosures, I can’t help but wonder if I need a better alarm system. Here in Nevada, we have a number of laws that banks choose to ignore, but since they are “federally regulated” I am told I have to take my complaints directly to the Comptroller of the Currency in Houston. Senator Ensign’s office was particularly condescending about it; if the lady I talked to could have patted me on the head through the phone, she likely would have.

The worst thing about the BAMTOR Principle is that Joe and Jane Average don’t really have a way to enforce good behavior with their wallets. Go ahead and try to open a checking account with a small, local or regional bank; perhaps you haven’t noticed that those smaller banks are disproportionally being shut down by the FDIC and sold to other banks that range from “huge” to “too big to fail.” Assuming you aren’t one of the millions of people who are “underwater” on their mortgage, sure you can get a new mortgage, but you can’t stop that mortgage company from selling your mortgage right back to the company you were trying to avoid!

Go ahead, feds. “Mull new rules.” The Bad Boys of Banking will just find new ways around the ones they don’t like until such time as the feds are willing to take a “tough love” approach, holding bankers responsible — putting people like department managers in jail or fining bankrupting sums of money where appropriate — and breaking up any institution so big that its failure would harm the economy.

In Closing: how abortion protests kill babies; add Michelle Obama and most of the White House Staff to the list of P90X people; where can I get one of these?; Good Samaritan; A question like “How to Lose a Million Jobs” will certainly get your attention; “Super-Rich Get Richer“? Oh good, I know everybody was worried about them; a fascinating read; “luck is not a business model“; more evidence that the insurance companies are doing all they can to subvert “reform“; fewer people working in 36 states, unemployment rises in 27 states, Nevada is still leading the pack; maybe they ought to read what Jesus really said someday; an interesting way of looking at things (h/t Calvin’s Mom); Sharron Angle is only a symptom of the craziness of American Politics; why fiscal stimulus isn’t working; and the Fed is trying to decide if — if! — they need to do more to fix the economy. Well, guys, look at today’s political cartoons and you tell me.

Oh yeah, and happy Autumnal Equinox.

On One Hand We Have GDP; On the Other We Have Reality

Steve Sack

Last month we were told that “Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the second quarter of 2010, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.7 percent.” Sure it did. The government says so and they would surely never tell us something that wasn’t true!!

Meanwhile, in Realityland, the FDIC took over 6 banks Friday afternoon. Canadian news sources are writing about the decline and coming fall of the United States as a “superpower.” This week we learned that the poverty rate rose to a 15 year high, with a 51 year high in the number of people actually living in poverty, 3,800,000 more than last year, including just under 1 in every 5 children who contrary to what some people think have no control over their circumstances.  Despite the passage of a new health insurance reform bill, the number of people with health insurance dropped for the first time ever. The net worth of Americans has dropped roughly $12,300,000,000,000 since 2007. The small businesses that are vital to creating jobs both now and in future decades can’t get loans, and the new law that was supposed to “help small businesses” will likely do nothing of the sort. Big businesses are hoarding cash. Some people are calling it a “lost decade.”

Meanwhile millionaires are whining about the very idea that they might have to pay more taxes (when they aren’t screaming about the federal budget deficit) and admitting that they have had illegal immigrants working in their homes (rather than hire an unemployed American).

And the experts wonder why more Americans think a “third party” might be just the thing we need.

Next time, unless I am otherwise distracted, The BAMTOR Principle.

In Closing: let’s hear it for Elizabeth Warren!; “that guy who agrees with me is an expert, that other guy who doesn’t is a quack”; Senator Reid mad at Republicans blocking food safety reforms; “Sorry soldier, you’re too fat for this exercise program”; new rules to make it harder for banks to hide debt (like that will stop them).

Shorties’ Ladder

San Bruno: Admittedly, before this tragic explosion, San Bruno was mostly a BART stop to me. But one thing is very clear to me: we have got to stop waiting until bridges collapse and pipelines explode to make sure our infrastructure is in adequate condition! And here’s a little hint to politicians: You actually have to hire people to build and repair things like pipelines, roads, and bridges. Better yet, quality infrastructure makes it easier for the private sector to create jobs when these projects are completed! By the way, did anybody notice that PG&E are only committing to paying up if it is found to be their fault? Um yeah, I think Allstate and State Farm will see to it that they pay. Here’s video of the explosion taken at a nearby gas station.

Health Insurance Reform isn’t over yet: Premiums are still rising quite a lot faster than inflation, and insurers claim that this is because they are paying out more money (probably because certain shady practices had to be stopped). Meanwhile, there is one provision that must get changed. However, the Senate failed twice today to get it passed. Under an obscure provision — that has nothing whatsoever to do with health care — small businesses would be forced to issue 1099 forms to any vendor with whom they purchased more than $600 worth of goods. Somehow it is claimed that this would raise $17,000,000,000 in taxes. I just can’t see how that works. After all, I get receipts from my brokerage and local NAR chapter documenting how much I paid them; why is my sending them notice that I indeed paid what they admit I paid going to generate money for anybody but my accountant?

On the Federal Budget and the Deficit thereof: So those bad old Tax-And-Spend Liberals managed to reduce the deficit 13%, with control of Congress (although their “control” of the Senate is a strange thing). At least Tax-And-Spend Liberals know you ought to have money before spending it. But do you think any Democrats are going to point this out on the campaign trail? Probably not. By the way, I can’t understand why CNN thinks it’s newsworthy that the Federal Budget isn’t done yet. This has happened pretty much every year for as long as I can remember. Of course the budget deficit would shrink quite a bit if we just let the Tax Cuts For People Who Don’t Need More Money expire. Even Moody’s says that giving the rick a tax break doesn’t do jack for the economy, and they’re paid to figure this stuff out. Frankly, if the only way to make that happen is to accept higher taxes myself next year, so be it. Let me get my damn checkbook.

A Few Items on Education: School breakfasts are the coming trend (couldn’t they eat something more healthy than sugary cereal and whole wheat donuts? Sorry it’s still deep fried cake). David Sirota on the educational bait and switch that has left our students unfit to do much more than putter on computers and pour lattes. Why college grads can’t write despite employers begging for literate employees that can write a freaking memo. And more than you really wanted to know about student loans.

A Few Items on Banking and Financial Reform: It looks like the international community is telling us that we will tighten up regs whether banks and Congress and Bernanke likes it or not. However, the holes in the regs look remarkably like cheese from the region where the rules are even now being hammered out. Meanwhile, the SEC is trying to prevent financial firms from hiding their debt. Funny, we’re still having this issue how many years after Enron? Meanwhile, it looks like President Obama is actually going to do the right thing and put in a recess appointment for Elizabeth Warren as head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. That means there is a chance things will be done that favor Joe Average above the Banksters. Oh and one more thing: if banks are failing to pay the feds back, why exactly aren’t the feds foreclosing on their worthless hides?

Cops Hate Dogs: It amazes me that someone who is sworn to protect the people can have such a low regard for living beings. One must wonder if they even respect human life.

“But that’s a nose in the middle of your face!”: Even CNN is pointing out that simply assuming people are physically able to work until they are 70 is an unrealistic plan for “saving” Social Security.

Silver Lining on the Economy is just Aluminum Foil: The wage gap between men and women is shrinking. My take is that the bean-counters figure it’s more cost effective to lay off the high-wage man than the underpaid woman, with the long term effect being that wages in general are lower when it comes time to hire again.

It’s still Sugar: High Fructose Corn Syrup is being re-branded as “corn sugar.” That doesn’t change the fact that most research says it’s not good for you.

If you build it, they might come: It turns out that Fiats may be returning to the states. That is, if certain Chrysler dealers build special showrooms for them.