bmagnus

The 700 Club

Or, Into the Valley of Death Rode the 504

A sad milestone has been reached in the cradle of civilization. It has been confirmed that 700 American soldiers have died in Iraq,* 504 of them in combat. Don’t like CNN? Here’s Reuters and here’s the Associated Press.

However, there is some question about the priorities of the American press in reporting what is really happening in Iraq. Apparently, CNN actually questioned whether Al Jazeera wasn’t missing the point by reporting Iraqi deaths. Well, let’s be realistic. Their audience is more interested in knowing whether friends and relatives in Fallujah might be under attack than whether some guy from Ohio has been killed — no offense or disrespect intended. Being an Arab language publication, they feel that “there is no bigger story in Fallujah than the deaths of civilians.”

Even the British press is reporting that the situation in Fallujah is really more of a massacre than anything else. Once you get past the American press, it is clear that things are awful. Ambulances are being shot at, their drivers specifically targeted by snipers. Empty or full of wounded people, it does not matter. People are even getting shot by Marine snipers for trying to use the outhouse. How dare they not pee in their pants; don’t they know there’s a battle on?

It seems clear to me that The Tiger Force mentality has not been thoroughly rooted out of our military.

Support our troops: pray for peace.

* Those of you who didn’t know that modern day Iraq is the same ancient land in which writing was invented, used to write down the first written epic and the first written code of law, in which were built one of the Seven Wonders of the Ancient World (the Hanging Gardens of Babylon), in which Daniel survived the Lion’s Den [Dan. 6], I urge you to read a little history.

Evil.

Remember when you were a kid? It was enough to know that The Joker™ was trying to bury Gotham City under six feet of strawberry jam because he was Evil. Lex Luthor™ trying to blow up a mountain to get to the Kryptonite deposit deep inside? Evil. Prince of an alien planet wanting to kill everybody on the Earth so he could sell the planet? Oh yeah, Evil.

But here’s the problem. We grew up, and found that the Joker was also criminally insane. We found out that Lex Luthor was a greedy capitalist. We found out the Prince decided to marry a debutante-inventor and start a family on Earth.

Nevertheless, here is the kind of rhetoric we are hearing about Iraq:

Because we stand for freedom. And the terrorists hate freedom. And they’re attacking us because we’re bringing freedom to Iraq. And terrorists hate freedom. Therefore they hate us. And since they hate us so much of course they fight us.

This is one of those Snake-Eating-Its-Tail deals of “They did these things because they are evil. We know they are evil because they did these things.” There is no way to argue this point because if you ask why they did it, see statement one. If you ask, “yes, you’ve said they are evil but how do you know that?” you are referred to statement two. We can’t ask why anybody hates us enough to attack us, or how we know they “hate freedom,” because the answer is they must be evil. And you must hate Everything We Stand For not to see that.

The discussion is over.

But wait, it gets worse. When your world-view is that somebody or some group is simply evil, there is no room for negotiations. There is no room to revise your opinion. There is no room for facts inconvenient to your view. Contradictory thoughts must be wrong, misinformation from your enemy, who is evil. More dangerous still, there is the tendency to lump all your evil enemies as necessarily related. Compare this transcript with this shorter version: a question about Iraq is directly answered with a comment about September 11. Never mind how little the two have to do with one another.

I conclude by urging you to read the words of a man I expect you to not like or agree with. Among the salient points are several things we can all agree are true: “The greatest rule of safety is justice, and stopping injustice and aggression.” “[V]igilant people do not allow their politicians to tamper with their security.” “We must take into consideration that this war brings billions of dollars in profit to the major companies, whether it be those that produce weapons or those that contribute to reconstruction, such as the Halliburton Company….” “Heeding right is better than persisting in falsehood.”

These are the words of Osama Bin Laden.

It’s a lot easier believing we are good, everything we do is good; they are evil, everything they do is evil. The truth is your enemy does not see himself as evil.

Finally, two things. First, a succinct essay by security expert Bruce Schneier on why a National ID card is worse than a waste of money, it in fact would make us less secure. Oh, and remember 2 weeks ago we learned 308,000 jobs had been created in March? Well last week 360,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. If that’s not enough for you, people aren’t quitting to take better jobs for the most part, and a new poll says people would rather have job creation than a tax cut.

A happy thought for tax day: you only had to pay income taxes if you had income.

There’s One for You, 19 for Me

I hate to interrupt your frantic search for bits of paper and mashing on the calculator, but you did know “Tax Day” is Thursday, right? Those of you outside the United States should feel free to scroll down and read something else. If you are hopelessly buried under tax paperwork, you might take a moment to read this.

If, on the other hand, you aren’t one of those people who will be standing in line tomorrow at the Post Office to assure your tax return has the correct postmark date, here are some ideas about what to do with your tax refund. And finally, here’s a bit of excellent reading on taxes, politics, and the 2004 elections.

Politicians say a lot about taxes, particularly in an election year. Everything they say is supposed to make you agree with them enough to vote for them. But listen on the defensive, okay? We don’t need “tax reform,” because that implies taxes are corrupt. We don’t need “tax relief,” because that implies taxes are onerous. What we need is Tax Simplification. That implies the truth: that taxes are too complicated.

Taxes, as they stand now, are complicated enough that at this time of year you may find tax kiosks in the grocery store — convenient, and a friendly reminder that Joe Average shouldn’t do his taxes alone. Some tax deductions and credits are sufficiently complicated that many eligible people do not claim them. The new rules on taxation of stock dividends are so complicated that some brokerage houses had to send corrected tax statements to customers. And of course, may we all have mercy upon someone whose stock options at work put them in that taxation twilight zone called AMT (Alternative Minimum Tax).

Although some people argue that the clearest path to Tax Simplification is a flat tax, I think there is a more politically tenable path. The goal of Tax Simplification is not to put accountants out of work. The goal of Tax Simplification is to make it easier for average people to file and pay their taxes. Ideally, half of all taxpayers should be able to do their taxes on a one page form, using tools no more complicated than a pencil, a calculator, and maybe a bit of scratch paper.

The results of this are more than giving you more time in April. By simplifying taxes, compliance will improve: more people will file taxes earlier, they will be more accurate, audits will be focused only on returns that need it, fewer tax scams will exist. Taxes will seem more fair because the method for calculating them will be plain and simple. Government expenses go down: the tax code will be shorter and cheaper to print; enforcement will be easier because the rules will be clearer, non-contradictory, and uniformly applied; fewer cases will end up in tax court. IRS agents can spend less time on personal tax returns, and more time finding corporate tax fraud — or better yet, more time getting into the financial affairs of criminals and terrorists.

The first step of my plan would be to make the standard deduction equal to the poverty line for a family of four, adjusted accordingly each year. Exemptions would work more or less as they do now. The result of this is that people who live in poverty would not be taxed. Nor would anyone ever be “taxed into poverty” again. This insures that people living on the edge can use every bit of their meager earnings to provide food, shelter, and necessities for their families. Their tax return will have fewer than a half dozen lines filled out, and will take less than 15 minutes to complete, including putting a stamp on the envelope.

Because the new standard deduction would be relatively high, most Americans would not have to itemize deductions. This reduces their paperwork and record-keeping substantially. It will also save average people money, because they will not spend money just to get a deduction. With little rework of the old 1040, anybody whose income is strictly from paychecks and interest on the savings –e.g., most people — can be looking at one page of tax paperwork. People with complicated tax situations, such as owning a small business or having capital gains, will still have to fill out additional forms. View it as the cost of making money.

This system would also make most tax credits obsolete, because most tax credits are focused on relatively low-income families. Take them out of the tax code. Likewise, most deductions should be re-examined. Perhaps we should consider a cap on the mortgage interest deduction equal to the prevailing interest rate plus one percent on the maximum conventional house loan. Thus, home ownership is still promoted, but the ownership of McMansions is not subsidized and the housing bubble is not pumped up. Or cap itemized deductions at three times the standard deduction.

Better yet, eliminate all itemized deductions except for a short list of things over and above the generous standard deduction. Put the lines for these special items right on the 1040: IRA contributions; health insurance expenses; no more than 3 or 4 top priorities to be named at a later date. These items should be things we can all agree are important and of benefit to all.

Once the overall deduction scheme is streamlined, two important things happen. First, the wealthiest among us pay their fair share of taxes. Second, there will be no more need for the AMT. It can be eliminated.

In the meantime, you can download that tax form you are missing from these guys.

Call Webster

If the situation in Iraq is not a fiasco, nor a quagmire, then would somebody kindly tell me what must be added to the situation to make it so? Can we at least say it’s a SNAFU?

Just a quick review. It’s been a over a year since a largely American force stormed into Iraq to liberate its people from a brutal dictator, and/or find Weapons of Mass Destruction, and/or root out Al Qaida cells, and/or put oil fields in friendly hands. It has been a year since Saddam Hussein was toppled, just short of a year since President Bush declared hostilities over, and just short of 5 months since Hussein himself was dragged out of a hole in the ground (longer, if you put credence in the date theory).

The rebuilding effort has been spotty at best: the nation as a whole still does not consistently and reliably have things like electricity, potable water, schools, navigable roads, and the like. The only people who seem to be benefitting from the reconstruction of Iraq are certain contractors. Heck, they even have a problem keeping police officers alive. American soldiers, some of whom are looking at extended tours, are only safe inside the fortified “green zone.” As of this writing 650 of them are known to have died. Do not blink; this number is subject to rapid change, particularly inasmuch as 51 have been killed just this week. The families of these brave men and women deserve the sincere sympathies and kind thoughts of us all.

These things being true, the United States is still trying to ram through a single, democratic government that will nevertheless leave a government friendly to government interests. This ignores several basic facts. Iraq is made up of 3 basic ethnic groups that hate each other (Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds — and the first two have decided to declare truce long enough to oust the Americans). They have radically different ideas about what their ideal government should be about, fundamentally different ideas about the role of religion in government. Heck, they have radically different ideas about whether women should have human rights. Frankly, the only way to forge these peoples into one country is a strongman dictator. Rather like the one we deposed. Single, democratic government friendly to American interests? The combination platter isn’t available.

Now, what is one of the basic freedoms we enjoy in a modern democracy? Why, there’s freedom of the press! So, if we are trying to build a democracy in Iraq, it makes no sense to shut down a newspaper, even if it prints things the interim government doesn’t like. You won’t catch the Federal Government trying to shut down, oh, lets say the Fort Worth Star Telegram because they printed a critical essay. But those rules don’t apply in Iraq, where the Americans shut down a newspaper for printing items critical of the Americans. This of course was a marvelous excuse for general rioting, not to mention a power grab by a young cleric and Future Dictators Club member called Moqtada al-Sadr. The Americans didn’t much care for this either. Being a cleric, it was only normal for al-Sadr to take sanctuary in a Mosque. His followers being militants, it was completely predictable for there to be shots exchanged between the Mosque and the Americans who demanded al-Sadr be handed over. The term “Branch Davidians” comes to mind, but a more correct cultural translation would be if the Army had surrounded and started shelling the Boston Arch Diocese to force them to surrender all suspected pedophiles.

Add to this mix the fact that Islam, like Christianity and Judaism, has a major religious holiday right around the first full moon after the Spring Solstice. This means pilgrims are converging on the embattled city of Kerbala. Some even blame the Americans for engineering this crisis to disrupt the holy days.

Oh, and one more thing. Various forces have begun the time honored tradition of taking political hostages. Indeed, they are threatening barbaric deaths for the hostages, such as being beheaded or lit on fire. The Japanese are not happy about this. They are not alone either. Political turmoil in Iraq has now streamed over the physical border. Events there dominate the top news stories of almost any source that covers world news. Stock markets on 3 continents have been effected. Politicians past and present are letting their thoughts be known.

It seems clear now that there was a grievous under-estimation of what it would take to liberate Iraq, re-stabilize it, and make it a member of the international community. The number of troops required was more than expected. The length of time the troops would be there was more than expected The amount to rebuild was more than expected. The resistance to American “interference” was more than expected. And of course, the Weapons of Mass Destruction that were found were much much less than expected. For their part, President Bush and Donald Rumsfeld maintain that everything will be under control shortly. It sure must be nice to handle a high pressure always-on-call job from your fishing hole.

We may still hand Iraq over for self-rule on June 30. But June 30 of what year?

Meanwhile, the real terrorist is getting away.

Instant Karma

Certain analysts and economists are shocked, just shocked I tell you, to find that the Consumer Confidence numbers — what Joe and Jane Average think of the economy — are getting worse. Hasn’t Joe read that job cuts are at a 9 month low? Isn’t Jane pleased that the Nasdaq is over 2000 again? Are they unaware that inflation is low? Don’t they know job growth hit 4 year highs last month? How could public sentiment not have changed instantly upon hearing this good news?

I think maybe Joe and Jane are focusing on the fact that despite the touted low inflation rate, gas prices are at an all time high and housing in some areas is appreciating at absurd rates, aided and abetted by mortgage companies, appraisers, and Fannie Mae. They would like to believe there is something to those job numbers, but then they hear that the 3rd biggest bank in the United States is eliminating 12,500 jobs. Adding insult to injury is the fact that on average an American with an actual job is still only working 33.7 hours a week and earning $523.70 per week. And that’s before payroll taxes. There still aren’t enough jobs being created, and too many of the jobs created are of the part-time no-benefits variety. More than one analyst thinks things aren’t as good as they should be. The future really isn’t that rosy either. The Baby Boomers are looking at retirement in a decade or so, assuming they can afford to do so. And some analysts say we can’t count on Wall Street to bail us all out.

And maybe consumer sentiment is also effected by what Joe and Jane see happening to America and the World. Joe knows that another mega-blackout could still happen, and that the last one was preventable. Jane knows her rights under the Constitution aren’t what they used to be, particularly if she wants to get on an airplane. And it has not escaped their attention that things are not going well in Iraq, where over 600 American soldiers have been killed in addition to an unknown number of “contractors” doing everything from cooking meals to providing security in lieu of the military. There is some question about whether we will ever be able to bring our troops home — at least there is to everyone but Paul Bremer.

The Statue of Liberty is still closed, and it appears she will remain closed. If this isn’t symbolic, I’m not sure what is.

Oh Come On, the Man is Dead!

Today, the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that gruesome pictures of Vince Foster’s body at the scene of his suicide did not have to be released to the public. The actual ruling is 17 pages long, but can adequately be summarized in this single sentence from Justice Anthony Kennedy: “”Family members have a personal stake in honoring and mourning their dead and objecting to unwarranted public exploitation that, by intruding upon their own grief, tends to degrade the rites and respect they seek to accord to the deceased.”

I realize that the tin-foil hat crowd is saying I forgot the word “so-called” when discussing Mr. Foster’s suicide. That last link even asserts that the Bush Administration is complicit in covering up “alleged” misdeeds of the Clinton Administration, a charge that on it’s face seems far-fetched. Even Special Investigator Kenneth Starr, the man whose job was to find dirt on the Clintons, declared Mr. Foster’s death a suicide. Don’t you think if the actual evidence had been the least bit credible, Starr would have investigated it more thoroughly?

Mr. Foster has been dead over 10 years. The Supreme Court made the right decision, but frankly they have more important things to do than consider decade old crime scene photos. Perhaps the resources wasted here could be better put to use investigating the outing of Valerie Plame. Instead of continually hammering on the death of one man, help these people find out how almost 3,000 people were allowed to die.

Father Knows Best

Bear with me. It seems the rest of the world has just recently discovered that electronic voting may not save democracy from oblivion after all, that sending personal information overseas may not be a good idea, that Congress may inadvertently make most networks illegal to prevent illegal file sharing (putting Time-Warner in the uncomfortable position of either defending their media copyrights or defending AIM and AOL chatrooms), and just because President Bush can dish out the Bible verses doesn’t mean he can take it.

But today, I’d like to talk to you about the patronizing attitude the current administration has about darn near everything. It has gone far beyond for-us-or-against-us my-way-or-the-highway attitudes about everything from Social Security to condoms. Outside input is neither solicited nor desired. Public statements have stopped just short of “Now, now, these are the advisors your elected President has selected and they know best.”

Would you like examples? We can go back to Dick Cheney’s claim that he does not have to release information about those Energy Task Force meetings because of executive privilege. If you’d like something more recent, try Condi Rice refusing to publicly testify under oath about September 11. This last instance is particularly hypocritical in light of her appearance on the news TV show 60 Minutes.

The Administration is even telling Republicans what they should say about the environment on the campaign trail. And it would seem they don’t like it. After all, they are elected officials too.

If you are unfamiliar with the ideas of George Lakoff, now is as good a time as any to become acquainted. One of his central theories is that conservatives in general work on a “strict father” model. The Boss/Dad/President is in charge, he knows best, you should do what he says. You wouldn’t dream of questioning items on Dad’s credit card bill; nor should you question your leaders who say we need to spend money on the special important project of the day. If you would like to learn more about this controversial fellow and his ideas, here is his official faculty page at UC Berkeley, assorted articles and interviews, and his Amazonography.

Another Brick in the Wall

Unless you have been living in a box, you know there is great consternation over the state of education in the United States. This is despite the decades of reforms and theoretical improvements since 1983’s landmark document, “A Nation At Risk,” which famously stated, “If an unfriendly foreign power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today, we might well have viewed it as an act of war.”

The latest item in the war on educational mediocrity is the now 2 year old “No Child Left Behind” Act. It is built on two lofty ideals: that all schools can improve, and that all children can succeed. In fact, any public school receiving Title I funds that fails to improve the performance of children in every sub-group, any school that fails to submit test scores for 95% of children in every sub-group, is labeled as failing. Yes, this means that if there is a school with 10 Latino kids and one is sick on test day the school is failing no matter how good it is. That is one of several reasons many at the state level feel NCLB needs new standards. Frankly the two lofty ideals it is built upon are flawed. We don’t like to admit that there are children who cannot succeed, whether it is because of profound mental deficiencies, or because of a home-life that is hostile to the educational system, or because the child simply has no desire to learn. As for improving schools, when the only standard for school performance is “better,” you have the underlying assumption that all schools are failing.

Critics point out that even good schools can improve, and even in good schools there is often a gap between various groups of students. Furthermore, they point out that even good American students lag behind foreign students. This problem is not addressed by simply demanding “better.”

A new report even cites the state of the American educational system as a reason for overseas outsourcing by “failing to provide strong science and math education to students.” The organization publishing the report “called for tech businesses to support math and science education in schools, with donations of both money and time.” They support the idea of educating and inspiring kids by sending scientific professionals out into public schools. Unfortunately, NCLB prevents this. The act requires “highly qualified” teachers in every classroom by Fall of 2005. The government definition of “highly qualified” includes first and foremost having a teaching license, which in most states presupposes having a specialized degree in education. This prevents many “highly qualified” individuals from teaching. Bill Nye cannot teach a science class; Norm Abram cannot teach wood shop; John Williams cannot conduct the high school honor band.

American society, parents, and employers have a reasonable expectation that schools will produce graduates who can take their places in society, who know certain facts, who have skills in areas such as reading and math. Instead of simply demanding “better,” let’s set forth attainable goals and standards. These standards should not be written in private by intellectuals, but with public input from the people who will interact with the graduates of the future.

Here is a start: a high school graduate should be able to read and understand a newspaper, VCR instruction book, or IRS tax form; he or she should be able to use math to balance a checkbook, tabulate an order form, determine whether he/she received correct change, or calculate square footage or yardage of a room; he or she should know enough about American history and government to know how we elect public officials, that Social Security is not a savings plan, and what the Bill of Rights says; he or she should know enough about science to realize that Dihydrogen Monoxide is not a threat, he/she should be familiar with basic facts and generally accepted theories about the world around us, and should be able to determine when something is bogus by comparing claims with reality.

Your Other Right

Did you ever think Arlen Specter would be “not conservative enough”?

It is symptomatic of how very far to the right the NeoCons are that Specter — and for that matter John McCain — seem moderate.

It seems that Senator Specter faces a tough primary battle for his own Senate seat. Although he officially has the White House nod, the fact of the matter is that if he truly had White House backing — and by extension the support of the Republican Party — there would be no primary. His nomination would be all sewn up. Instead, he is a mere 9 points ahead of his also-Republican competition in the polls, and must spend millions of dollars of campaign money just to be allowed to play in the November elections. Conservative mouthpiece Fox News points out his so-called liberal streak.

You know, this could have something to do with his statements yesterday that there was “a lot of blame to go around” for allowing 9/11 to happen. And yes, he did say it was preventable.

I have two recommended news items today. First, from CNN. Scroll down towards the heading “Jobs ‘Not Happening'”:

Michigan’s tour representative, Laura Tropea, 26, moved home after graduating from law school in New York in June and failing to find a job. She lives with her mother in South Lyon while working at a deli part-time, earning $8 an hour despite having passed the Michigan bar exam.

For the record, since she did not lose a full time job, she was never counted as unemployed. And if she loses this part time job, she will still not be counted as unemployed. Never mind that she is a licensed attorney who is making sandwiches for a so-called living. Never mind that she did the right thing and got a good education.

Finally, Robert Marcin of TheStreet.com tells us how the price of everything seems to be going up while the official inflation rate does not. It’s alright to be angry when you are done reading.

Hello everybody

Greetings, and welcome to all readers. In particular, Thanks and Welcomes to new referrers, LeaderLog and Elisa Camahort.

A special thanks to some of the folks who have linked to me, and the folks who have clicked through. This includes Renpro, Paxtonland, Jay Currie, foomart, Fecundity, and Jerry Kindall.

I’d also like to extend a special welcome to those who clicked through from Google, Blogdex, Technorati, and Weblogs.