Shorties Lake

Latte Economy Revisited: It turns out that more Americans think it is important to create jobs — and specifically manufacturing jobs — than worry about the deficit. Dave doesn’t think we have a Latte Economy; he thinks we have a “Cake or Death” economy.

Education Researchers Don’t Need Statistics: A real scientist looks at the “good kindergarten teachers will help your kids earn more money” study. Unfortunately the figures don’t add up.

Left of Center, Maybe: Great quotes. “If we were a right-of-center nation, you could win an election by saying you planned to eliminate Medicare and Social Security. After all, this would be an effortless way of leaving the unprecedentedly bloated defense budget intact while still cutting big ‘gubment.’ Instead such a proposal is grounds for getting you burned in effigy.” Also, “The reality: the majority of Americans are actually progressive whether or not they call themselves that. Poll after poll finds when Americans are asked how they feel about issues like the minimum wage, protecting the environment, gay rights and even gun control – the majority agrees with the Left.”

Follow up: Dipak Desai’s competency hearings are beginning.

You’ve got to read this and pass it on!: Ok, if you’ve been reading me for a while you probably know all this, but MoveOn’s got the top 5 Social Security myths. And they’re delightfully blunt about the motives of the people who keep spouting them.

Speaking of which, talk to Granny about where she gets her information on the health insurance reform bill: It turns out that a lot of senior citizens are very misinformed.

Funny Thing, Most of Us Get Fired for Not Doing Our Jobs: Five years ago I said “If you have moral problems with doing your job, you must quit. Today. Otherwise, you are saying your morals only matter when they inconvenience others. A vegan waitress knows she will have to serve meat unless she works in a vegetarian restaurant; a recovering alcoholic realizes he should probably not go to bartender’s school; pacifists normally don’t enlist in the armed forces.” This week a judge said yeah, you don’t have a right to only do the parts of your job that you like, and you don’t have the right to re-write your professional guidelines to suit your moral qualms.

It had been months since I linked Pandagon and now I’m doing it twice in one post: Some conservatives are in a tizzy that President Obama is sitting down to an interview with Barbara Walters and a few of her friends… on her daytime show aimed at a mostly SAHM audience. Here’s a little secret — it turns out that women have had the ability to vote since 1920, and the sort of women who can take the time to watch daytime TV have the time to get to the polls.

Fine, how do YOU want to measure it??: 10 key indicators show that yes, global climate change is real. That’s what most scientists call global warming these days so freak snow doesn’t confuse the small-minded.

It sure would have been nice for someone, like say the news media, to have pointed this out in 2002: Hans Blix on the fact that he found no Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq because there were none.

How nice for somebody, I guess: Health insurer Aetna made more money last quarter — even though they had less revenue — because of lower costs (that is to say, less paying for actual health care).

And finally: an interview with Isaiah Mustafa, “The Old Spice Guy.” Turns out he’s got some acting parts that involve wearing a shirt. Also turns out he’s a P90X guy.

Propaganda

Raise your hand if you think your net worth is over a million dollars!

If your hand is up, you are in a very, very small minority.

It’s been some years since I have had the occasion to say anything about the estate tax. However, now the temporary rollback of that tax is about to expire and all of a sudden we are seeing little pieces in the news designed to make us panic. It’s part of a scheme to blame Democrats for “tax hikes” that are really nothing more than letting the disastrous, deficit fattening Bush tax cuts expire. Today’s salvo from USA Today is titled “Estate tax to return in 2011, and it could hurt ordinary folks.” Of course, it’s mostly wrong.

A $1 million exemption would affect a lot of families that are well out of Steinbrenner’s league. “You take a home, an IRA or 401(k) retirement account, some other savings and you get to $1 million pretty easily,” says Richard Behrendt, senior estate planner for Robert W. Baird and a former IRS attorney.

Let’s take this apart a little bit. According to the National Association of REALTORS, the median price of a single family home in May of 2010 was $166,100. Currently, HousingTracker.net does not report any metropolitan areas with a median price above $500,000.

As for retirement savings, a report that came out earlier this month suggests that most people, even many wealthy people, will run out of retirement savings. It’s hard to find an estimate of just how much money people have saved up. This 2006 item suggests that even the best off of us had less than $100,000 savings in their retirement accounts, and that way before the Great Recession. Considering what stocks have done, it’s not likely that these accounts doubled in value. Even if they did, many were raided by their unemployed owners in the interest of keeping the bills paid.

As for other savings, this Washington Post article, also from 2006, says that we only had $3800 in the bank on average.

In fact, the Wall Street Journal says that at the end of 2009, the average net worth of an American was only $175,600, down from a peak in 2007 of $218,650. And that’s without accounting for mortgages or credit card debt! Even somebody with 4 times the peak average net worth wouldn’t be touched by a tax on estates over $1,000,000. Certainly, somebody with a median priced home, median IRA/401K accounts, and median savings is nowhere near being at risk of owing estate taxes.

It’s pretty easy to see that the expert cited by USA Today is in no way connected to reality as you and I know it. The truth is that fewer in one in ten Americans will receive any inheritance whatsoever.

Of course after pointing out the truth of this statement, opponents of the Estate Tax will do two things. First, they will revert to calling it a “death tax,” just because it sounds scarier and like it will effect more people. Second, they will start talking about how it could [in some alternate reality] effect small businesses and farms. This point applies to so little of the population that George W. Bush couldn’t find a single “victim” of this tax consequence to put in the gallery at the State of the Union Address in the 8 years of his Presidency.

Seriously, if you’ve got a million dollars of net worth and can’t afford some estate planning, you’ve got bigger problems than what happens after you are dead.

And how fascinating that this issue comes up just as some on Capitol Hill are saying Social Security is too expensive and needs to be cut. Talking out of both sides of their mouths as usual.

In closing: Tony Horton Goes to Italy; “Improving neighborhoods is a desirable goal, but it’s not education reform”; 13 reasons the economy really sucks; Darn, I agree with Glenn Reynolds again (this is becoming an annoying habit).

Duhpartment of Educational Research

Today I bring you two inexpensive and obvious ways to improve student performance.

Part One: Sleep in

Yet another study shows that starting the school day a little later — 8:30 instead of 8:00 — increased the number of students that got adequate sleep, improved the mood of students during the school day, and slightly improved grades. Attendance improved and visits to the school health office (what used to be the Nurse’s Office) declined. In fact, the teachers who had been against the change at the beginning of the study supported keeping the later start time by the end!

Locally, high schools start around 7 AM and kids are back in the neighborhood by around 1:30. I can’t help but think that a later start time would reduce not only car accidents, but juvenile delinquency, crimes against teenagers, gang participation, teenage pregnancy, and teenage drug/alcohol abuse. What excuse can school districts possibly have to justify all these negative outcomes?

Part Two: Teach Based on What Kids Know

Kansas City, MO, has been experimenting with a radical program where kids are grouped and learning according to their ability and what skills/knowledge they actually have, rather than what they ought to know as an Xth grader. It turns out that kids do a lot better when you make sure they know things before moving on to more complicated things. Gee, Toru Kumon had that figured out decades ago, and Zig Englemann rediscovered it in a different decade! What’s that saying about people who don’t know history?

In Closing: Eliot on FinReg; drowning; Pick up 25 pounds of rice, a case of canned tuna, and a business loan; and stoning.

Nice of him to notice, and Economic Bonus Round

I am glad to see someone with a high profile speaking out on this, and I sincerely hope other journalists start talking about it.

Now, about that economy.

The nicest thing I can say about the United States economy right now is that unemployment isn’t as bad as it is in much of Europe. Our economy lost jobs last month — and only partly because some of those temporary Census workers were let go — but the really awful part is that the number of workers went down. It isn’t that we had an abnormal number of people die or retire or anything like that, it’s just that over a half million people gave up on trying to find work. And that’s why the official unemployment rate went down.

Of course, if you just happen to have the right set of highly technical job skills, there are plenty of jobs. But — as Jill so ably points out — somehow or another businesses don’t think they should actually have to train employees to use very specialized equipment. I guess they are waiting for the “Qualified Employee Fairy” to stuff resumes under the door.

It’s also worth pointing out that the SBA is running out of money again, which means it will be even harder for small businesses to get money to ramp up operations and create jobs. I am no supporter of the SBA — everyone I’ve ever known that has ever talked to them has ended up with an application for a second mortgage — but this is crazy.

So when all is said and done, I think that more than being “still in the gravitational pull of the Great Recession” and perhaps headed for a “double-dip recession,” it is more intellectually honest to say that from the standpoint of the typical American, there is no recovery: we still aren’t finding jobs, we still are having trouble paying the mortgage, we are still declaring bankruptcy at an alarming rate. Fine, maybe our largest corporations are still making plenty of money, but without the American consumer having money in pocket to buy goods and services, GDP growth can only be somewhere between shaky and an illusion.

In Closing: Uncle Shelby; turns out the kids are bored and not learning the things they should; on the newly revised dietary guidelines; fun with Google auto-complete; biggest banks in the world (and the ones that don’t exist anymore; and please, please drive safely this weekend.

Nevada Firestorm

And no, I’m not talking about the two multi-acre blazes within 4o miles of Las Vegas.

Well, the internet has been all abuzz over the latest from Sharron Angle. Everybody and their dog has already had something to say about her latest interview, including the guy who interviewed her. No wonder she does so few of them! Ezra Klein points out that the choice should be fairly simple, given that Nevada has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country, Angle thinks all those unemployed people should get up off their lazy asses and find a [nonexistent] job, and Reid keeps trying [and failing] to get unemployment benefits extended to at least try and prevent all those unemployed people from becoming homeless too. At least her website has been updated with a little less crazy. She still does think it’s unreasonably hard to get a ballot initiative up in Nevada. I have long urged people to Just Say NO to all voter initiatives, so this is just fine with me.

But wait! Let’s not forget that The Other Reid (he’d prefer to just be known as “Rory“) is in an election too, and his opponent Brian Sandoval has also been campaigning. This week he announced a plan for Nevada schools. It includes giving a “grade” to each school and allowing kids in poorly graded schools to transfer to better schools. Now, there’s 2 problems I see with this. First is that No Child Left Behind already allows the same freaking thing; why reinvent the wheel? The second problem is geography. Nevada is a big state with a small population, and 73% of the population is in one county. While the idea almost makes sense in the Las Vegas Valley, the Reno area, and the Carson City area, it makes no sense in the rural areas where the next school might be an hour or two away.

His second plan is the popular idea of making teacher pay dependent upon student performance. Well, here’s the thing. Teachers can only control what happens in their classroom, and even then only most of the time. When you’ve got kids worried about living on the street, kids stealing ketchup packets so they can have dinner, gang violence, child abuse, parents who don’t give a damn, official curricula that still use sight words*, limited ability to discipline students who are out of line, a bureaucracy that would make any government proud, and a half dozen impediments to learning in the classroom, merit pay is a sick joke.

And idea three is to outsource non-educational services. That would include janitorial services, human resources, and food service. It makes me wonder what firms I would find if I were to look closely at Mr. Sandoval’s investments! There is just no way that it’s cheaper to have a cleaning crew come in at night than to have one or maybe two people on hand all day to clean messes as they occur. Hiring a for-profit catering service to put the cafeteria ladies out of work is just madness. This is aside from the concern some parents will have over whether the employees of these firms might maybe have some desire to harm a child. As much as I would like to dismiss this as tinfoil hat lunacy, the fact of the matter is that Clark County School District has had incidents where non-teachers are accused of harming students.

* I was just horrified to learn what constitutes homework for a first grader!

In closing: A tangible Good Thing from health insurance reform starts today; mortgage rates at record lows, why aren’t we borrowing? (because unemployment is around 10% and most homes are worth less than what is already owed, duh); a financial reform package passed the House and is headed for the Senate, let the hunt for loopholes and political favors begin (it’s ok, banks will ignore what they don’t like anyway); fiscal austerity still doesn’t work; Real Socialists beg the wingnuts to stop calling Obama one of them; a bit of follow-up, the list of countries Van Der Sloot can be extradited to for more charges grows; both of these statements are logical, but both cannot be true; 100 Yen shops, the Japanese Dollar Store; vaccinate your kids!; smart pet tricks; flying cars; and libertarians.

A Midsummer Day’s Post

Happy Solstice! Now might be a good time for some bloggy closet cleaning (did mine with the redesign, thanks!).

And here’s a little meme courtesy of Kathy. Here’s how it works: Google up “[your name here] needs.” My needs are interesting. I apparently need:

  • Your Support
  • a Spring Haircut
  • a Forever Home
  • and to Change.

How about you?

In closing: exploring the universe; a new way to get on the freeway; Keep on shoving that shoe into your mouth, Sharron; where the national debt meets the national how-we-pay-for-healthcare crisis; I never thought I would call for gutting “gifted” programs; my President Emperor Right or Wrong; and stay cool.

Life Imitates Monty Python

First, it was the news that Scotsmen were “universally unhealthy” and indeed “living dangerously” when it came to their lifestyles. Sadly, the first thing that popped into mind was that they were universally bad at tennis as well:

Punchline here, if you are unfortunate enough not to remember this.

Then mere hours later, I stumbled upon an item about bearded women taking on the “good old boy” network in France. Please forgive me for automatically thinking of this:

Makes it hard to take the world seriously.

In Closing: proposed stupid laws (LIEberman really thinks there’s an internet “off” switch someplace that the President could pull??); smart judge; gee, what could possibly make somebody nervous in an airport?; Desai pleads not guilty; bank closure 82; earlier school day == more teen car crashes (can we hope that the insurance companies actually do something good for us and pressure school districts?); and for Japanfilter, the Ikaros Solar Sail. Don’t fly too close to the sun, guys.

The Shorties Centipede

Ok, for the record, I didn’t make it up, this is a real movie. No, not planning on watching it.

Quickie Economic Stuff: Technically we are out of the Great Recession (assuming you can believe the numbers put out by the government but that’s another story). Nevertheless we are not in a recovery. Bankruptcies are still way too high and jobs are still way too few. We’ve still got too many people who have been unemployed over half a year and too many people who are stuck in part time jobs because a full time job just isn’t available to them no matter how hard they try. Oh, and we haven’t fixed the underlying real estate problem.

Obligatory Oil Spill Stuff: Some meteorologists think the spill might be 5 times worse than reported. Oh, and there might be a lot of unexploded ordinance to complicate the mess. So since the containment dome worked about as well as Jon Stewart predicted (starts around minute 5), now they want to try plugging it up with random junk. Hey, it worked in Futurama. But whatever you do, don’t cry for BP; about 4 days’ profits can cover cleanup.

Really cool computer accessories: Laquered wood mouse starts around $300 American.

No Point Reasoning With Some People: Complain about high taxes all you like, they haven’t been this low since 1950.

Closer than you think: The outrageous thing is that cops are busting down doors and killing pets every day across the nation. It’s just that this one time there’s a videotape.

I don’t get it: So it’s better that violent mental patients should rape a female mental patient than they should assault each other?

Must Read: Prohibition Then and Now.

Dear Fed: Sure, the Senate unanimously voted to have a one time audit of the Fed. However, it’s a watered down thing.

Core Requirements: Susie’s must-have course may be Johnie’s fluff class. How important is it to be a well-rounded student?

Blackbird Flyin’ in the Dead of Night: Take these discarded manuals and learn to fly. All your life, you’ve been waiting for this moment to arrive.

Don’t Ask Don’t Tell?: More like “Don’t put out and I’ll tell.” We already have an unconscionably high rate of rape in our armed forces. This makes me wonder how many people who are discharged are forced into this, and how many are rape victims with the temerity to stand up to their attackers.

And finally: this lawsuit ain’t over ’till it’s over.

Happy Greenery Day!

Today is Midori No Hi, or Greenery Day. Originally celebrated in late April as the [previous] Emperor’s Birthday, Hirohito-sama’s love of nature prompted the current Emperor Akihito-sama to make it a permanent holiday celebrating the great outdoors. It is part of a “Golden Week” of holidays, so don’t plan on getting anything done with business associates in Japan this week.

Picture taken by the ShortWoman in April of 2007. It’s an Asian pear tree in blossom.

In Closing: Stuff you thought you would never hear the President say; the economy is a very different place depending on whether you are an American family or an American auto manufacturer; Tony Horton is the man (except when Henry Rollins is); the hole this school district is in keeps getting deeper; Would Jesus Be Accepted by the Conservatives?; Airline fees are out of hand; Just a few choice words about BP and the oil disaster in the Gulf; Porn Star saves man from prison; unHappy Mothers Day; look, it’s called the 5th Amendment and it applies to all Americans; Baseball players against racial profiling; Audit the Fed!; and two amusing items, I Shot the Serif and Nunderwear.

Stupid Republican Tricks

Seriously, there has been so much stupid that I don’t know where to start.

I could start close to home with Senate candidate Sue Lowden, who thinks we should be able to barter with our doctors and pay with, for example, chickens!

I could go down the road a bit to Arizona’s new racial profiling illegal immigration law, which “requires state and local police to determine the status of people if there is ‘reasonable suspicion’ that they are illegal immigrants and to arrest people who are unable to provide documentation proving they are in the country legally.” By the way, “reasonable suspicion” means the cop doesn’t like you and/or you’re brown. I don’t think most people appreciate that most people don’t carry proof of citizenship in their pockets — NO a Driver’s License is NOT proof of citizenship! Never has been, shouldn’t ever be.

But wait, maybe that’s what Senator McCain was getting at when he said that illegal immigrants are deliberately causing car accidents! I certainly can’t think of any rational reason that anybody — particularly someone here illegally — would cause accidents. Insurance fraud?? What a dangerous way to make money!

It’s OK though, because Representative Bilbray says a cop can tell if somebody is illegal just by looking at their clothes! So tell me, what exactly is the difference between the shirt I buy at Target and the shirt that an illegal immigrant buys at Target? I don’t want to accidentally get the wrong one. And certainly you’d better not dress up for any ethnic festivals in Arizona without sticking your birth certificate or naturalization papers in your pocket!

Then again I could go to the horse’s mouth — Washington D.C. — and examine the party of NO!’s “Just scrap it and maybe start over” strategy on almost every initiative. Oh, and let’s not forget that it is at least partly thanks to the Republicans that the newly passed health insurance reform bill still allows rescission and still has no way to control wild increases in premiums.

Not that the Democrats are innocent, but certainly no wonder people are “fed up with political incivility.” Anybody who wants to be re-elected had better pay attention to public sentiment now.

In Closing: Freezing a 787 for science; look, putting twins in different homerooms to see which one learns to read better doesn’t prove that reading skills are 82% genetic, just that the teacher and classroom aren’t 100% to blame/praise for the results!; Homelessness, it’s not just for addicts and the mentally ill anymore (sadly, for some people, it’s what’s for dinner); a scathing truth about “successfully” parenting a crowd; high schools preparing kids for college without a thought of preparing them for work; if the Fed is going to print money, do you suppose they could send some my way?; congrats to GM on paying back the TARP money to the Feds; green Navy vessels on the ocean blue; the various watch lists and no-fly lists aren’t just an annoyance, they divert attention from real threats; on long term unemployment; oh waah, companies are having a hard time raising prices; let’s see how far the rotten banking practices extend; and school lunches have officially become a matter of national security.