Well, actually it’s more like bullfighting. The kind where they slaughter the bull at the end?
Just to get us in the proper mood, Harper’s reminds us that everything is worse than it at first appears, thanks to pollyannaish manipulation of the actual data. Really, most of this stuff you already know if you’ve been reading ShortWoman for long enough, but this article traces each tweak to its roots.
The Economic Policy Institute was on yesterday about how the number of job applicants is surging while the number of actual jobs to apply for is plummeting. Today we found out that the number of first time jobless claims is higher than it has been in the last 26 years. The 4 week moving average is up over 500,000, which would tend to indicate that 2 million people have applied for unemployment for the first time in the last month alone. Why do I say “tend to indicate”? Because that number is seasonally adjusted. Nevertheless, Ouch!
Nor are things tough all over only for individuals. It so happens that 43 of our 50 states are in financial trouble, too.
As crazy as the stock market has been, there is some chart-based evidence to support (heh, support. a stock charting joke) the idea that even now, the S&P 500 is going to drop at least another 10% just to “revert to the mean,” or the average growth it has had not just since the Great Depression, but since 1870.
There is some good news. Or is it bad news? For the first time since they started measuring it, household debt has declined! People are paying cash, using “lay-a-way” plans, anything but running up more debt. Even if they wanted more debt, American families are having a tough time finding someone who wants to lend. The “bad” part of this is it means a drop in spending.
A site that is only recently added to my list of Things To Read is Calculated Risk. Two recommended items are on net worth and home equity.
Yeah I know, I don’t go linking Kos very often, but “how we crashed the economy” is a good read.
A UCLA economist says that as bad as things are right now, 2009 is going to be worse.
And finally, some recommendations on public works that will do the public good in the long run.
Let’s hope it really is darkest before the dawn.
In closing: Enquiring minds really do want to know, What on earth was the Governor of Illinois thinking??; somebody spells out what actual Biblically based marriage would look like (hint, it isn’t pretty); Can Steve Jobs save GM?; a bunch of guys whose jobs depend on high college enrollment rates say that a college degree is vital (nope, no enlightened self-interest there); it may be that a Big Three bailout would primarily benefit former Treasury Secretary John Snow! (You remember, Mr. “A strong currency is hard to counterfeit“?); and cathouse.