December of 2004 added 157,000 jobs to the American economy, for a 2004 total of 2.2 million jobs, short of the 2.6 million new jobs the Administration predicted for 2004. This is still described as “Another employment report, another month of mediocre job gains.”
It has been a while since I have sung this particular tune, but the song remains the same. It still takes 150,000 new jobs a month to take care of new entries to the workforce. Remember that when the AP says ” With Friday’s report, Bush is close to closing the gap in job creation that has plagued him since taking office in 2001. There are now just 122,000 fewer jobs.” The economy isn’t just short 122,000 jobs, it is short that plus 150,000 jobs for every month of this Administration. That comes to about 7.3 million jobs. The Administration has also revised its estimates of 2005 job creation downward from 3.6 million to 2.2 million. About 1.8 million would be break-even.
The Bush Administration has yet to hit, let alone exceed, a yearly job creation target.
Then why is the unemployment rate so low? Partly because of the way the unemployed are counted. Partly because, as the AP points out in that same article, “Separately, labor force participation is trending down…. The participation rate has declined sharply in the past several years among younger workers, with economists speculating that a weak labor market is causing those people to stay in school, including seeking higher degrees. But the number of people age 55 and older working or looking for employment has risen in the past four years. ”
As if this is not bad enough news, there is anecdotal evidence that there are fewer job listings. In short, fewer jobs to be had. Competition is stiff enough that CNN put out this handy list of job-seeking tips today. Elsewhere, CNN points out that “The average work [week] edged up a tenth of an hour to 33.8 hours last month.” “Average” is still part time, at a level such that most employers do not provide benefits. Still another article today, CNN points out that wage growth is less than inflation, and payroll data suggests that actual wages decreased almost 5% at the small firms that created 2/3 of the new jobs.
So, small firms are hiring, but at lower pay levels. Big firms are continuing to lay off more workers each month. In fact, over one million lay-offs were announced in 2004.
In closing, I join others in asking Where are the insurgents coming up with the materials and know-how to blow up a tank? Granted, the Bradley is not the greatest tank in the world, but it is still a tank. It is not a Hummer with a couple of trash can lids welded to the doors. A Tank.