Ripple Effect

As I write, over 16 million people have filed for first time unemployment benefits in the last 3 weeks. There will be many ripples from the COVID-19 pandemic, and this is a good place to start.

First, I’d like to point out that at best this is a minimum number, and may in fact be a wild underestimate of the people who have lost their job in the last 3 weeks. Many state systems were slammed by not just 2 or 3 times normal volume, but 20 or 30 times normal volume. Turns out that many of these systems work using an ancient operating system called COBOL. For perspective, my late father used COBOL in the 60s and 70s. As if that’s not bad enough: “Still more people likely won’t qualify for unemployment benefits: parents who have to stay home with school-age kids, people quarantined because they’re at high risk for COVID-19 and new graduates who can’t even look for work.” That number probably doesn’t include most “gig economy” workers either.

Another direct ripple: those 16M+ people now don’t have health insurance. In a pandemic. I talked about this briefly very recently. COBRA is still a joke. If this isn’t a wake up call that we need true universal health insurance — not a patchwork of employer based benefits, not the “mandatory insurance” that Romneycare and Obamacare got us, but true “your citizenship is your insurance” universal health insurance — I don’t know what is. A lot of people are going to get a bill for tens of thousands of dollars just to keep from dying. And unlike diseases that can be traced to lifestyle, you can’t easily blame the victim. Keep that bill in mind, we’ll get back to it later.

A public health ripple: those unemployed people without insurance aren’t going to the doctor. They aren’t getting help for their small medical problem, so it’s becoming a bigger, more expensive medical problem. And if the problem turns out to be a communicable disease, they’re making other people sick. So yeah, the uninsured are a problem to your health.

Another ripple: people without jobs are having a hard time paying their rent or mortgage. Some of the renters who can’t pay in turn mean landlords can’t afford the mortgage. Sure, many areas have placed a moratorium on eviction and foreclosure, but that’s not a permanent solution. The forbearance plans in place still mean someday everything owed must be paid. Not meaning to sound insensitive, but how far do we kick the can down the road?

This ripple exposes another truth: over half of Americans had under a thousand dollars in savings just a few months ago. That hasn’t gotten better. With surging unemployment, it’s about to get worse.

Another ripple strikes the economy. About 70% of our economy is based on consumer spending. Consumers without jobs and without savings don’t spend a lot of money. Expect a drop in GDP.

And here’s where our ripples crash into the rocks. Eventually — not today, maybe not this quarter. Eventually, those rents and mortgages must be paid, or foreclosures and evictions will happen. Eventually the past due bills will grow including the medical debt, and bankruptcies will happen. Eventually we will have to confront the ways our health care system is not working. Eventually we will have to look at whether we can sustain an economy on services. Eventually we will have to come out of our shelters and see what is actually left of our economy.

Good luck, and keep your hands clean.

Blood Shorties

Have you all missed me? Finals is upon me and all is chaos. Nonetheless, the need has arisen to clean out many tabs of items I had hoped to share with you. Let the Blood Shorties begin!

It just won’t die!: I am of course talking about the TPP. The world has certainly turned, since Hillary has made weasel words about maybe it’s not a good idea. Do I believe Hillary? I believe she will say whatever she thinks will get her elected. In the meantime, more bits have been leaked. Make sure your CongressCritter knows where you stand (and remind him that unlike corporations, you vote).

Speaking of voting: Sometimes dollars speak louder than words. And yes, it would be nice if the news media would report news that actually matters.

The Price of Medicine: Not all drug price hikes make the news. Of course, since the price tag for most of us is laundered through our insurance companies, all we see is rising premiums.

Come on, Generation X! Get your act together!: You are behind on saving for retirement. Couldn’t have anything to do with being stuck in crappy jobs (when you can find jobs at all). Terrifyingly enough, it turns out that I am ahead of over half of all Americans when it comes to savings.

The Smartphone App Saving Detroit: It’s called “Improve Detroit.” And apparently, it works!

Now Accepting Applications: Speaker of the House.

Secret Society: The Hidden Christians of Japan.

Sure they did: FBI has prevented lots of people from becoming ISIS terrorists! They just can’t tell you about any of them.

Wow: Prehistoric Tsunami.

Finland: We keep sending people to study what they are doing right, then we do the opposite.

What could possibly go wrong?: Put a single, newly sober young woman into a room with a bunch of recovering alcoholics in meetings as often as every day and trust that nothing will go wrong.

And finally: How to pet a kitty.

Bath Salts Shorties

Bottom line: “Even healthy oils are not calorie free.”

“You only think you need medication for that”: 5 psychiatric disorders with probable genetic basis.

Ancient Sea Creature: “The fossilized animal, an arthropod called a fuxhianhuiid, has primitive limbs under its head, as well as the earliest example of a nervous system that extended past the head. The primitive creature may have used the limbs to push food into its mouth as it crept across the seafloor. The limbs may shed light on the evolutionary history of arthropods, which include crustaceans and insects.”

Unintended Consequences: Keep up the fight, Karl Rove!

Bonnie Franklin isn’t even buried yet and she’s spinning in her grave: “[I]f [a single mom] wants to increase her take-home pay, what does she do? She has another child out of wedlock, right?… If she wants to lose it all, she finds somebody to support her and she gets married.” Right. You just keep saying that in public, Senator.

Mostly, it’s the sugar: Salt Sugar Fat author speaks. So does Stanford.

Great Beaches: I’ve only been to #6 and #8. I think #8 is far superior.

Bad news for the economy: Personal income and savings suck.

Bad news for the future economy: The student loan bubble sucks harder.

This is not new, people: The IRS doesn’t care if you got your money illegally, you still have to pay tax on it.

And yet look for it to be in the immigration “reform” cramdown: eVerify is like a no-fly list from the depths of hell.

Do you think these two things might be related?

Fact one: Home prices are up nationwide. By how much depends on which index you like to use.

Fact two: The number of available existing homes listed is down. Not down a little bit, but down about 17% in 146 metro areas (I think that qualifies as “nationwide”) and down over 25% in a couple dozen places.

Looks like the law of supply and demand is still in play. Keep this in mind if you think this is a great time to buy.

In Closing: Harvard points out the obvious; about a quarter of Americans have more credit card debt than money in the bank — not total debt, just credit card debt; the truth about low capital gains taxes; signs of autism can be found at birth (that’s long before anybody can get vaccinated, for those keeping score); strategy; and surely I am not the only person who thinks the timing here is odd. Do you really believe that the Pope mulled his decision to resign for health reasons for quite a while before suddenly making an announcement, then realizing too late that it’s the middle of Lent and somebody has to do his job?

Beauty is Everywhere

 

In Closing: More Kip Hawley; permission to work or state sanctioned restriction of trade?; almost half of Americans have nothing saved for retirement; underemployed; surprised?; and my, they’re recruiting terrorists early these days.

Mark Haines

This morning, I learned that CNBC anchor Mark Haines had passed away suddenly last night.

Wow.

Some people may want to debate this, but Mark was always a voice of reason on CNBC. He wouldn’t take any nonsense from anybody, guest or co-worker. And the professionalism with which he handled the completely unexpected 9/11/2001 broadcast was remembered by many.

By the way, “died unexpectedly” happens altogether too much. I know doctors cost money, but they can save your life.

In closing: not working all the Angles; Senate Odd Couple wants to fix the PATRIOT Act; Save the 4th Amendment (get a load of the source!); if you can’t drive, you can’t vote; this would be a Good Thing for all of us; Tequila Party starts by putting a thumb in Arizona’s eye; what savings?; and look for my next book review next week.