Tag: mortgage backed bonds

Follow-Up and Vegas Miscellany

In a way I wish I had waited until today to write The BAMTOR Principle. By some weird coincidence a bunch of other people have also noticed that Banks Always Make Their Own Rules that don’t necessarily have anything to do with the law. It turns out that many people knew that Wall Street was selling mortgage backed securities that were destined to fail. But what HuffPo didn’t bother to point out is that what those banks and brokerages did was in violation of the law. This blatant double standard — “laws are for little people” — will continue until the Feds start putting people in jail, levying huge fines against individuals who signed off on breaking the law, and states sue for the right to prosecute violations of state law.

In light of this, the banksters have the chutzvah to say that breaking up “too big to fail” institutions would create more risk. Yeah, more risk for their jobs.

As far as the economy goes, it turns out that 74% of Americans agree with me that regardless of what the government says about GDP, we are still in a recession. It’s getting more obvious that the numbers are being gamed. But don’t expect any administration in the near future to start talking about what inflation, unemployment, and GDP really are, because then we would all understand what deep doo-doo we are standing in and probably vote a lot of bums out.

Of course you need to be careful about voting bums out, as Christine O’Donnell and Nevada’s own Sharron Angle illustrate. Congruent Angle? Sorry I’m running out of Angle jokes.

And that brings me to an armload of local interest items. Let’s start with the spectacular view from the Cosmopolitan. Down the Strip a little bit, be careful about sitting by the pool at CityCenter’s Vdara, or you may experience their unique “death ray.” If you are planning on getting off the Strip, you will want to at least look over these amusing tips. One of the restaurants I visit regularly has been reviewed again, and I only recognize two of the things they were served. I haven’t talked a lot about it, but I am keeping an eye on the case of Erik Scott, killed in broad daylight by Metro in front of a Costco in one of our most yuppified neighborhoods. By the way, last week’s CSI did a great job of addressing it and not addressing it.

In Closing: electromagnetic spectrum; lies your teachers told you; cheap food costs dear; abortion does not have dire emotional consequences; Israel cannot have its cake and eat it too; people don’t like health insurance reform because it didn’t go far enough!; True Mud; a few words on taxes; Professor DeLong nails the Republican view of America; have we tried the simple stuff first?; Jack LaLanne is 96 (was I the only one who noticed Drew Carey’s homage in the blue “speed suit”?); and medical ignorance.

Interest Rates Must Go Up

Just about 5 years ago, I wrote this:

It is my theory that beneath certain levels, low interest rates do not stimulate the economy. There are several factors which combine to this result: First, when rates are very low, there is no incentive for lenders to extend credit to individuals and companies. Since the available rate of return is so low, they would rather take the sure thing on government bonds. Housing lending has continued partly because there is a real asset involved, and partly because such loans can be sold to aggregators such as Fannie Mae. [edit: this was before the housing bubble burst; the last sentence isn’t entirely true any more.]

Second, when interest rates are very low, corporate borrowers — who are supposed to be goaded into action by super low rates — are mindful that the Powers That Be feel the economy is lousy. It is a bad idea to incur debts and invest in infrastructure when the economy is lousy. What will the stockholders say? What cash they do have they will sit on until the moment is right [edit: leaving them in a position to, say, buy out a competitor who imprudently overspent]. After all, if the economy is lousy, they may well need the cash cushion. As for loans, they will wait for some kind of signal that things are improving — an increase in interest rates, maybe — before calling for cash.

Finally, the third leg of the economic table, Joe and Jane Average do not experience added liquidity. While the banks are more than happy to lend them money for concrete things like houses and cars, the banks are reluctant to lend them cash for things that have a lasting impact on the economy. They can’t get cash to start a business (or to help along their existing business) because it’s too risky — for the bank, that is.

Here we are, 5 years later. The Fed Funds Rate has been 0-0.25% for two years. That means banks are able to borrow essentially free money, and have been for two years! Mortgage rates did rise this week, after 12 weeks of declines and record lows, including the lowest rates since this data has been tracked. Under traditional economic theory, all kinds of growth should be stimulated!

So where’s the jobs that should be created by all this stimulation? Oh, right.

The truth is that monetary policy can’t fix what’s really wrong with our economy: banks and businesses we won’t admit are really failing; a workforce that can neither take advantage of job opportunities in other regions nor start small businesses because their houses have lost so much value as to leave them underwater; businesses that pay millions upon millions to executives and stockholders while paying as little as possible to laborers here, overseas, and/or illegal; tax and regulatory policies that encourage bad corporate behavior; a still-broken health insurance system that discourages hiring and will soon force all of us to pay tribute to profitable insurance companies; a failure to manufacture much of anything that somebody somewhere in the world would want.

But it gets worse. Those super low interest rates create one more problem for our economy. It punishes people who are trying to prudently save money for retirement, college, or just a rainy day. A side effect of this is that the Social Security Trust Fund is also getting low rates on their investments — which directly impacts the future of the system and gives future seniors a double-whammy even if they do everything “right.” Further, the low interest rates encourage people (and the government) to borrow money they might have a hard time paying back. While this might boost the economy in the short run, in the long run it’s just a longer bit of rope with which to hang.

Interest rates must rise. Bernanke must stop hiding the fact that some banks are already busted without effectively no-interest loans from the Fed. Institutions that are not solvent or are “too big to fail” must be broken up and turned into organizations that serve their customers. Investors must own up to the fact that their Mortgage Based Securities are worth no more than 70% of the face value and allow homes to be properly valued. Tax code must encourage corporations to spend money instead of hoarding it. And there must be incentives to hiring people here for decent wages, and better yet making something here that can be sold and exported. Let’s stop pretending we can build an economy on cheap credit and lattes.

In Closing: pants; T-shirts; it’s more intellectually honest than Megan’s Law; school reform hasn’t done much for learning; people with a prescription for painkillers might have painkillers in the house; and am I the only person with a tape measure in her bag?

Oh Great Oracle of Omaha, START TALKING!

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission has requested the company of the world’s 3rd richest man next week. And then, when he declined their invitation, they sealed the deal with a subpoena. CNN helpfully points out “If you don’t know how a subpoena works, this one begins with capital letters, ‘YOU ARE HEREBY COMMANDED to appear and give testimony.'”

Why have they summoned the Oracle to Washington?

Warren Buffett is the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire owns a lot of things; some of the ones you are likely to recognize are Dairy Queen, GEICO, Fruit of the Loom, Acme Bricks, and Pampered Chef. Berkshire also holds a lot of big stock positions in things like American Express, Bank of America, General Electric, Coca Cola, and Moody’s. Moody’s is a company that does business and economic analysis. While you might think that AmEx and B of A are what the FCIC is interested in, they want to know more about what happened at Moody’s regarding the investment ratings of mortgage backed bonds.

I wonder what the FCIC expects to hear from Mr. Buffett.

In Closing: the 3 ring circus that is the Nevada race for Senator; California health insurance rates going up (again); none of the 10 Commandments are in the Constitution; Social Security is sustainable; American citizen almost deported to Mexico; Wish List; joblessness among those under 24 at record levels; and Cat Cafes.