It’s [Still] the Economy….

It’s going to be a long, slow crawl out of this economic pit.

Visualize if you will, two triangles. These triangles meet at the middle, like a bow tie. Please excuse my crude little sketch.

triangles

That middle point we will call Consumer spending. It depends on how much money people have, which in turn depends on whether they have jobs. It also depends on their other expenses and what access they have to credit/loans. Right now the consumer has it rough — unless he or she is in the top 1% of earners. The good news (sort of) is that new unemployment claims are down; the bad news is that those claims are still way too high. For reference, the poverty line on a family of 4 is just under $22,000.

On one side of the triangle, we have housing and banks. We all know real estate prices have plummeted. This drop is even worse if you look at housing priced in gold. I put banks at the top of this triangle because they hold all the cards. They are involved in every mortgage, both good and bad. They effectively control housing in many markets not only through mortgage origination, but through sale of foreclosures and pre-foreclosures. They also directly control consumer credit, and therefore whether people have the ability to spend. Bank lending standards are notoriously tight right now.

The other triangle is more complicated. Insurance is at the bottom because, like housing, it is an expense. In fact it’s a wildly rising expense, having gone up a minimum of 88% in the last decade.  This is clearly not a sustainable trend. Because most Americans get insurance through their employers, this impacts whether or not employers can afford to hire; indeed it impacts whether employers can continue to employ. Why employers aren’t begging for Medicare for all or at least a public option I have no idea.

That arrow between banks and employers reflects that they depend on one another. Employers put their money in banks; employers often need loans from banks. This is particularly true of start-up companies that need funds to buy supplies and equipment before they can hire people. Those tight lending criteria I mentioned before also effect employers and impact whether they can be in business.

The points on these triangles are connected, and we won’t see an improvement in consumer spending until something is done about banks, housing, employment, and insurance. They simply have nothing to spend.

4 thoughts on “It’s [Still] the Economy….”

  1. My doctor (who was a Doctor for Dean in 2004, which should tell you his political leaning) is convinced that major employers will soon be going to the White House and demanding “Medicare for all” so they don’t have to continue paying the cost of health insurance.

    Employers, of course, don’t absorb the cost increase of health insurance. They increase their employees’ share of the premiums, increase the copay, increase the deductible, reduce the services they cover. It’s the people who use the health care service who are paying more and more. This year, I took a pay cut because I got no annual increase but I’m paying more out of pocket for health care. I can absorb the additional cost, but my co-workers who have children, bigger mortgages, car payments, chronic health problems, etc., are certainly hurting.

  2. ATTENTION!! Congress Has The Votes Needed To Pass A Public Option – TODAY http://bit.ly/TCq7O

    Why A Strong Public Option Is Essential – By jacksmith – Working Class

    Robert Reich explains the pubic option: http://bit.ly/dDYSJ

    Hollywood Supports The Public Option 🙂 http://bit.ly/3XLwPi

    It’s not just because more than two thirds of the American people want a single payer health care system. And if they cant have a single payer system 77% of all Americans want a strong government-run public option on day one (86% of democrats, 75% of independents, and 72% republicans). Basically everyone.

    It’s not just because according to a new AARP POLL: 86 percent of seniors want universal healthcare security for All, including 93% of Democrats, 87% of Independents, and 78% of Republicans. With 79% of seniors supporting creating a new strong Government-run public option plan, available immediately. Including 89% of Democrats, 80% of Independents, and 61% of Republicans, STUNNING!!

    It’s not just because it will lower cost. Because a strong public option will dramatically lower cost for everyone. And dramatically improved the quality of care everyone receives in America and around the World. Rich, middle class, and poor a like.

    It’s not just because it will save trillions of dollars and prevent the needless deaths of millions more of YOU, caused by a rush to profit by the DISGRACEFUL, GREED DRIVEN, PRIVATE FOR PROFIT MEDICAL INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX!

    It’s not just because every expert in every field, including economist, and Nobel laureates all agree that free market based healthcare systems don’t work. Never have and never will. The US has the only truly free market based healthcare system in the World. And as you all know now, IT IS A DISASTER!

    It’s not just because providing or denying medically necessary care for profit motivations is wrong. Because it is WRONG! It’s professionally, ethically, and morally REPUGNANT!, Animalistic, VILE and EVIL.

    THE REASON THE PUBLIC OPTION IS ESSENTIAL:

    The public option is ESSENTIAL because over 200 million of you are trapped in the forest of the wolves. Which is the forest of the DISGRACEFUL, GREED DRIVEN, PRIVATE FOR PROFIT MEDICAL INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX! With no way out except through needless inhumane suffering, and DEATH. While the wolves tear at your flesh, and rip you limb from lib. Then feast on your lifeless bodies like a dead carcase for transplant parts.

    At the most vulnerable times of your lives (when you were sick and hurting), millions of you have had to fight and loose cruel, but heroic battles. Fighting against the big guns of the DISGRACEFUL, GREED DRIVEN, PRIVATE FOR PROFIT MEDICAL INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX! in the forest of the wolves. All because you have no place else to go. You have no other CHOICE!

    But the PUBLIC OPTION will give you someplace safe to go. And it will give us someplace safe to take you. The public option will be your refugium (your refuge). Where the wolves cannot get at you when your down, hurting, and vulnerable. Where everyone who needs it can find rest, security, comfort and the care they need. Protected by the BIG GUNS of We The People Of The United States. THE MOST POWERFUL PEOPLE AND COUNTRY ON EARTH.

    This is why it is so critical that we do not lead another 50 million vulnerable, uninsured Americans into the forest of the wolves, without the protections of a Strong Government-run public option. We The People Of The United States MUST NOT LET THAT HAPPEN to any more of our fellow Americans. If healthcare reform does not contain a strong public option on day one. YOU MUST! KILL IT. Or you will do far more harm than good. And millions more will die needlessly. Rich, middle class, and poor a like.

    To those who would continue to obstruct good and true healthcare reform for the American people, and who seek to trap millions more vulnerable Americans in the forest of the wolves. We will continue to fight you. We are prepared to wage all out war against you, and will eagerly DESTROY! you. Time…is…UP! YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED! No Co-op’s! No Triggers! NO INDIVIDUAL MANDATES! without a Strong public option on day one.

    Healthcare reform can be the GREATEST! Accomplishment of our time and century. A time when future generations may say of us, that we were all, AMERICAS GREATEST GENERATIONS.

    BUT WE MUST ACT!

    I therefore call on all my fellow Americans and the peoples of the World. To join us in this fight so that we may finish becoming the better America that we aspire to be for everyone.

    SPREAD THE WORD!

    I have been privileged to be witness as many of you fought, and struggled to take your first breath, and your last breath on this earth. Rich, middle class, and poor a like. Life is precious.

    Whatever the cost. WE! MUST SUCCEED.

    God Bless You My Fellow Human Beings

    jacksmith – Working Class

    Things You Can Do To Help NOW! http://www.everydaycitizen.com/2009/09/tired_of_watching_people_die_n.html

    No Triggers! http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jason-rosenbaum/a-trigger-for-the-public_b_277910.html

    Triggers http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-sirota/weve-seen-these-triggers_b_283583.html

    Krugman on heathcare (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/25/why-markets-cant-cure-healthcare/)

    Senator Bernie Sanders on healthcare (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSM8t_cLZgk&feature=player_embedded)

    John Garamendi on the Public Option and the Grassroots: http://bit.ly/TJMty

    Howard Dean on the Public Option http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SKfW2dUnow&feature=player_embedded

    We’re Number 37! in quality of health care http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVgOl3cETb4&feature=player_embedded

    Twitter search (#welovethenhs #NHS #hc09 #hcr #healthcar #obama #p2 #topprog #) Check it out.

  3. My husband (a doctor) and I also supported Dean in 2004, and he’s still one of my favorite politicians. I truly believe he is the only man who fully understands health insurance from every angle, since he’s the only person who has had to deal with it as a doctor, patient, employer, and governor.

    I also think that GM would not have had to declare bankruptcy if they had lobbied for Medicare For All 10 years ago. However, they didn’t, and they designed crappy cars to boot. Don’t get me started on the stupid “features” that insure I am unlikely to ever own one of their cars.

    Now, employers do pass on as much of the health insurance expenses as they can get away with. It used to be something they just paid. This is one more reason that if we don’t get any other reforms, the tax code must be amended to allow everyone to deduct it. The other must have reform is to completely outlaw the very idea of a “pre-existing condition” for all purposes.

    Thanks for commenting!

  4. Hey Jack! I’m approving this, but you really ought to get your own site, mmkay? Let me know when you’ve got it set up and I’ll even link you.

    I may have to go ahead and make a better version of my little bowtie of economic doom.

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