It’s been a long time since I wrote this:
One of the most striking things is that at least once a day, some character [of Clavell’s historical fiction novel, Whirlwind] said that “soon things would get back to normal.” Oh the Shah is gone, things will be back to normal in a few days. Oh Khomeni has arrived, surely things will be back to normal soon. Oh the military has stood down, that means things will be ok soon. A cow farted, things will be back to normal. Talking to people who were adults in this era confirms that this kind of thinking was prevalent in real life in the United States, too. This is but one example of the striking naivety that seemed to afflict all Westerners in the book. Non-natives were consistently caught off-guard by the idea that “progressive” reforms could be rolled back, that a theocracy could be erected, that Sharia could be enforced, that assets owned jointly with foreign entities could be nationalized.
The reason I bring this up today is that we still don’t understand Iran.
As interesting and exciting as current events in Iran are, we would be well served to remember how clueless the West has been about this fundamentally Persian nation in the past. I am very distrustful of anybody’s analysis of what is going on, and even more distrustful of anybody’s prediction of what is likely to happen next. See also.
The interesting thing is how we are learning about what’s really going on. Hint, it’s not the mainstream media. Sure, you’ll get stories on the big news sites, but after many people already know.
Internet veterans remember following important but under-reported events on Usenet — newsgroups online that predate most “web sites”. Then people followed news while in chatrooms or in IRC channels. Then it was blogs. Now it’s Youtube and Twitter.
News media is dying, crushed under the weight of having to overproduce mountains of drivel every day, scooped by everyday people with cell phone cameras and internet connections.
A few short health reform items: a summary of the viable, proposed plans; of all things, a commentator from the Financial Times thinks Medicare For All would be an improvement over what we have; I’ve said that true universal healthcare would help small businesses, and now CNN says that health care costs are “choking” small businesses; ivory tower intellectual says the problem is that we groundlings only pay part of our health expenses, ignores people who have to decide which prescriptions they can afford to fill (his ideas had some validity a decade ago so cut him slack); poll says we need “major change” but not an “overhaul” (hint, mandatory coverage is not a major change); the President shows the AMA a carrot (malpractice caps) and a stick (“If we do not fix our health care system, America may go the way of GM — paying more, getting less and going broke.”).
In Closing: Republican “activist” needs a new sense of humor; Wolf Sanctuary; JP urges us to put blame where it belongs; Regulators Vs Bankers in the fight of the year; Wired on gadgets that were a waste of money; Truth in Comics; and Giant Robot! (Ok, a life-sized Gundam. But still.)