Month: December 2005

The Phantom of the Shorties

Firefilter: “Well, honey, I never did like that chimnea.”

The “safety dance” has lyrics. On one hand, congratulations to the TSA for figuring out that bad guys are bad not because of what they are named, but because of what they do. On the other hand, I can think of a lot of reasons someone might be nervous in an airport, particularly when being questioned by a man with a gun. I have concerns regarding the possible misuse of this program.

You might want to take a few moments on a regular basis to pay attention to what is happening in Asia.

Where have I read this before? Oh yeah, now I remember. It’s the same kind of trash people were saying about Generation X fifteen years ago. Can we have some kind of contest to come up with a better name than “Generation Y”? Surely we can think of something; after all, Generation X used to be known as the “baby busters.”

Looks like we won’t see Dow 11,000 in 2005. GM and housing inventory are at levels not seen since the Reagan Administration.

This government spying thing is like watching a Ron Popeil infomercial on late night cable; every time you look, somebody is saying “But wait! There’s more!”

And finally, a little Geography quiz.

Happy New Year, stay safe, don’t drive drunk, and don’t fire guns into the air, alright?

Optional Week

Maybe you don’t pay too much attention to Wall Street and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That’s ok. You might not know that the big question for a while has been “Will the Dow hit 11,000? Will the Dow end 2005 over 11,000?” Many analysts say yes, because the economy is going great and oil prices are coming down. Some of the big brokerage houses are behind this analysis. You can tell when an article supports this theory by the lists and bullet points. Others point out that the Dow hasn’t been at those levels in almost 5 years and there’s a lot of resistance just under 11,000. These folks give the caveat that should the Dow actually get over 11,000, it will continue to rise from there. An article supporting this theory usually has lots of charts with technical indicators and annotations.

At the risk of pointing out the obvious, this is the last week of 2005. The one thing that neither side in this debate is taking into account is the one thing that can change the balance. Options.

There are two basic kinds of options and many strategies for using them. A “put” gives the holder the right to sell something at a given price, regardless of what that something normally sells for. Someone who buys a put is expecting that prices will go down. Some put buyers see it as an insurance policy for their portfolio; if prices drop unexpectedly, they exercise the put and minimize their losses. A “call” gives the holder the right to buy something at a given price, regardless of current value. The call buyer expects prices to go up. A great use of calls is airlines buying options to buy fuel, insulating themselves from spikes in prices.

These options don’t exist in a vacuum. Somebody has to take the other side of the deal. The person who sells options is betting the buyer won’t exercise his options. He is prepared to buy if the put is exercised — meaning he has cash on hand or can have it in short order. He is prepared to sell if a call is exercised — meaning he has the thing or is prepared to get it in short order. If someone sells a call but does not have the thing he is agreeing to sell, that is called a “naked” option. Doing this is like sitting down to play poker with Wil Wheaton and his close friends; you don’t do it unless you are really good or really stupid.

So what the heck does that have to do with what the Dow is doing this week?

Where the Dow goes is going to boil down to what options are written and exercised on the Dow itself and each of its 30 components. Who has exercised puts on GM as it sits near 20 year lows? Who is betting that Wal-Mart had a good Christmas? Who is poised to sell should we near the resistance around 10940? It is possible to know how many options there are out there, but it is impossible to know how many of them will be exercised, let alone when. Keep in mind that actual trading may be light because of people taking the week off — not only is it the week between Christmas and New Years, it’s Hannukah. Light trading means that the people who are actually there can move the markets more easily, whether accidentally or deliberately.

Sit back and enjoy the show. I’m one of the folks that thinks the Dow will not hit 11,000 this year. As for next year, Jim Jubak has some interesting theories.

In closing, two articles about schools trying so hard to bring the lowest performing students up to a level they can fake their way through standardized tests that they are failing to meet the needs of middle class and academically gifted kids; what was that I was saying last week about people not being able to retire; and they make pills for everything else, why not for dieting.

By the Book

[I]f we go by the book… hours could seem like days.
— Spock, The Wrath of Khan

Much thanks to the folks at MaxSpeak* for pointing out this set of figures from the Economic Policy Institute. Basically, they have the Degrees In Economics and the wonk-fu to compile actual statistics confirming what most of us have thought at some point in the last 2 years: “If the economy is so great, how come money is so tight?”

The figures show on a regular basis that wages are not rising despite the fact that profits are. The only way that economists can make it seem like wages are so much as keeping up with inflation is to figure in the CEO’s salary when they make the “average” figures. Frankly, this situation may be even worse than I thought, judging from some of the stuff in the description of Jack Bogle’s new book. Mr. Bogle is the fellow who invented the index fund. He knows what he’s talking about when it comes to business and the markets.

Debt is up and savings are down. And what’s even worse is that with interest rates this low, there is incentive for things to remain this way. Bernanke is going to need brass balls to steer the economy over the coming years. Frankly, maybe we don’t need to worry about Social Security solvency when the baby boomers start to retire, because a large percentage of them won’t be able to leave the workforce.

Of course that impacts the next fact, that job creation has not kept up with population growth. In last year’s elections, this fact was glossed over by both parties, much to my disgust. The headline unemployment number has remained low because of the semantic games that keep people from appearing in the workforce: people are going back to school or staying in school; people are becoming “contractors” or working “commission only” jobs or taking part time jobs because it’s better than nothing; formerly two-income households are scaling back to a single income. All these things keep someone who would really like to have full time paid work from appearing “unemployed.”

Poverty is rising. Every year since 2000. Not just in raw numbers, but as a percentage of the population. One out of every eight Americans lives in poverty. Think about that the next time you are in a crowd. I bet you a nice shiny quarter that in your local newspaper or newscast, there has been a story in the last 6 weeks about how donations to local charities such as food banks are down over previous years, yet the number of clients they serve is up.

Finally, keeping all this in mind, health care costs are rising. The insurance premiums are rising. The amount that people are paying out of pocket are rising. The number of people who decide that insurance costs too much and they will chance going without it is rising. The number of people who simply can’t get it or can’t afford it is rising. As the nice folks over at The Mess That Greenspan Made pointed out some weeks back, the fact that healthcare costs are rising is under-calculated in the official inflation number.

Oh and don’t forget, the durable goods sales were up because Boeing had record orders. Joe and Jane Average aren’t buying airplanes. They buy things like cars and houses and refrigerators. Sales of all those things are down. So “how the economy looks” all boils down to which numbers you want to use. The old saying about “lies, damn lies, and statistics” comes to mind.

In closing: How to make your credit cards pay you. Say, has Daschle found his backbone at long last? Not Necessarily the New TSA carry-on guidelines. And this last tidbit I am calling a rumor, since I can’t substantiate it anywhere — a nationwide voucher bill may have gotten through Congress. It’s possible, since they have done so much stuff this week there’s no way they have even read it all. School vouchers are one of the first subjects I wrote on here at ShortWoman.com, and I stand by my opinion that they are not a good thing. In short, they underestimate the cost of education, they ignore the incidental costs of private schools, and they pave the way for state control of private schools.

*As I write, MaxSpeak’s top story says there is a possibility of negative GDP growth in the fourth quarter. I wish he would share whatever data leads him to this conclusion, as it is a fascinating hypothesis.

Follow up: Seattle Times columnist correctly points out “If car-camping colony isn’t news, then times are worse than we think.”

Second Follow Up: I was just listening to a fellow on CNBC named David Rosenberg. He’s an economist over at Merrill Lynch whose research suggests that “the wealth effect from rising home values and the boost to spending from mortgage-equity withdrawal, and housing accounted for an astonishing 50% of GDP growth in the first half of this year….” He considers this a conservative number and cites studies by Greenspan himself suggesting the number is closer to 75% — no luck finding that online unfortunately. Now if these numbers are right, then the drop in new housing sales might explain MaxSpeak’s hypothesis. More importantly, if these numbers are right, we are all in trouble if/when the big housing boom is over.

Shorties Vs. Godzilla!

Fafnir delightfully sends up section 215 of the PATRIOT Act.

Cutting through the nonsense about Bush’s secret wiretaps. I wonder if we will ever know why the New York Times saw fit to sit on the story for over a year.

Don’t forget, there is still a Supreme Court nominee in play.

I used to live in Las Vegas, and I was unaware that we had our very own United States Senator.

Maybe your heart is in the right place this holiday season, but think before you give stuff away. If it truly isn’t good enough to use, what on earth do you think a person living in poverty will do with it?

As Epiphany approaches, don’t forget the three wiseguys who will bring widening scandal in the new year: Abramoff, Noe, and Cunningham. Only time will tell who is brought down as these investigations continue and players rush to toss one another under the bus. I keep wondering if, how, and when this will tie back to the Plame leak investigation.

Mmm smells like Nixon. The FBI is busy investigating peaceful activist groups. The DHS might be busy worrying about grad students who want to read source material on the dreaded red peril, Communism (the facts and theories are still coming in on this one).

A judge says yet again that you can’t teach “God created the world” and call it “science.”

Have a great day folks. And be careful; it’s nuts out there.

Some Advice on School Programs

By now, most schools have already had their Christmas programs, and planning for some sort of Spring Extravaganza may well be well underway. Have no fear, next year’s Christmas program will be planned by the end of summer. This being the case, you might consider forwarding this to a school drama or music teacher, or saving it until the proper time.

Over the years I have attended, performed in, and planned many amateur productions with groups that ranged from preschoolers to adults and absolutely everything in between. These productions have included concerts, plays, pageants, musicals, operas, cantatas, recitals, competitions, and some things I am probably willfully forgetting. I would like to think I have learned a thing or three about such endeavors, and thus would like to share my extremely limited wisdom with you.

Consider your audience. It’s size, that is. With an adult production you can control attendance by issuing tickets, even if you don’t charge for them. When you are out of tickets, you don’t let anybody else in. If there is enough demand, you run a second night. That’s pretty simple. With a school production you must assume that each and every student will be accompanied by at the very least two parents, and perhaps five or six people once siblings and grandparents are figured in. It is safe to say that your bare minimum audience size will be three times the number of performers. Now think about that for a minute: Do you have enough room for all of them to sit? In chairs? Will the Fire Marshal be alright with that? Is there enough parking? If the answer to any of these questions is “no,” you must either reduce the number of performers — maybe break the performance into separate grade levels or groups — or find another performance hall.

Shorter is Better. Trust me, I speak for everyone when I say that it is better to do four musical numbers well than six badly. Furthermore, your younger performers and their parents will truly appreciate a shorter program. Not even movies usually run two hours anymore; what makes you think your production is worth that kind of time? This is another case for having multiple performances by separate groups. So some people will have to *gasp* be there for two nights. That’s show-biz.

Remember the Basic Rules of Stagecraft. Things like “risers are for standing on, not dancing and stomping.” “When performers turn around, their voices don’t go out to the audience.” “Large groups of children speaking in unison cannot be understood.” “Singing and choreography are at least three times as hard as either thing alone.” Please, make sure every performer knows the very first thing I ever learned about drama: YOU MUST SPEAK LOUDLY AND SLOWLY FOR THE AUDIENCE TO UNDERSTAND YOU. Oh, and I don’t care how much you loved “Cats,” it is a bad idea to send performers running through the audience, particularly if you have ignored my advice about audience size and thus have a standing-room-only crowd.

Avoid Anything Labeled “A Musical for Young Voices.” Seriously. Especially if it butchers old songs with cutesy lyrics. Particularly if it comes with an accompaniment tape or CD. A minimum of 95% of such works stink, and you have better things to do that try to find the one that doesn’t. We aren’t talking Rodgers and Hammerstein here. The plots are usually insipid, the lines designed to showcase the handful of kids with good stage presence and otherwise give a token line to everybody. The music is usually mercifully forgettable, although each song tends to be at least one verse too long — and you can’t cut verses when using a pre-recorded accompaniment. If you just have to do a musical, why not write it in house? Older kids can write the lines, or you can adapt a short book. As for music, we live in a world with thousands of folk songs and hundreds of Christmas songs. These are familiar songs which students might encounter again someday, not some throwaway tune that they will never hear again.

Consider and Communicate Logistics. This is absolutely vital when you have multiple groups of performers! Not one person in your audience came to see somebody move music stands for 10 minutes. Consider the most efficient way to use your performance space over the course of the entire show. Use curtains, risers, scenery, judicious intermissions, announcements, and multiple stage hands to advantage whenever possible. Furthermore, be sure your performers know where to go before the show, how to get to their place in the show, and where to go after the show. Do not assume they know. When your performers are students, make sure their parents know when and where to drop them off, pick them up, and what they should be wearing. Make this known at least two weeks before the show, and remind them as critical times approach.

Thank you for your patience. Season’s Greetings, everyone!

Security Theatre Act XI

I Guess We Can’t Call Them “Air Marshals” Anymore

Today it was announced that Air Marshals will also be patrolling — both uniformed and undercover — on busses, trains, and ferries. Here’s a great excerpt: “Rather, the TSA is trying to expand the role of air marshals, who have been eager to conduct surveillance activities beyond the aircraft, and tighten security at public transit stations over the holiday.”

So how about that. We now have a Secret Transit Police. How long until one of them shoots some mentally ill homeless person? And what interesting class warfare implications this has. After all, rich people don’t ride the bus.

Is this about insuring the safety of public transit riders? Then why not put uniformed beat cops on busses? Or is this about — in their own words — “surveillance activities” against American citizens as they go about their business?

Nation Jumps the Shark

Remember when John Bolton was nominated as Ambassador to the UN, and his critics brought out video of his saying stuff like “[T]here is no United Nations. There is an international community that occasionally can be led by the only real power left in the world, and that’s the United States, when it suits our interest, and when we can get others to go along”?

Today, 150 members of the international community decided they were going to have formal talks about mandatory greenhouse gas reduction, and they decided they would do it without the United States. To put this in perspective, that’s more countries than will be at next week’s World Trade Organization meeting.

So much for how the United States can make the international community go along with whatever we want.

American officials have been trying hard to make the Kyoto Accords go away, and it isn’t happening. They threatened to pick up their toys and go home if Clinton was allowed to speak yesterday (he did, they didn’t). Nevertheless, it is becoming more clear that the weather is becoming more dangerous around the world. Just about the only scientists who think Global Warming is bunk seem to work for big polluters. Even though our government is not on board, a growing number of large businesses and cities are in, and doing what they can to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other pollution.

Unless you really expect the end of the world to be sometime before next summer, the time to act is now. Quick reminder: everyone who has predicted the end of the world has so far been wrong.

Call Your Congresscritters

I do not nearly have the time I would like to explore this topic more completely, so here is the short version.

The border security bill currently under consideration in the House of Representatives contains language that would “requir[e] the Social Security Administration, Treasury Department and Department of Justice to study the concept of a machine-readable Social Security card with a photo ID.”

This is a bad, bad idea. Thanks to changes in tax law, most Americans get Social Security Numbers as babies. A photo ID Social Security Card will have to be renewed regularly to be used as identification. This will incidentally create a photo database of every American, perfect for feeding into biometric recognition devices. It is also clear — since it’s laminated — that it is intended to be the sort of thing that everyone will carry in their wallets all the time, presentable to any Government official who asks. Even the Social Security Administration advises against actually carrying your Social Security Card. This is beyond the concerns of the Liberty Coalition:

“Even setting aside concerns of intentional ‘blacklisting’ of innocent Americans, even a small error rate could mean millions of Americans forced out of work by computer mistakes,” said Liberty Coalition Policy Director James Plummer. “Homeland Security has a poor record of putting innocent Americans on secretive “no-fly” lists, and should not be entrusted with determining who is allowed is to make a living in this country.”

Let’s face it: the only reason this is being considered at all is that the States are balking and doing everything they can to keep from implementing Real ID. Good for them. Keep the pressure on your State Governments. And tell your Representative and Senators to kill this internal passport requirement.

In closing: real quotes by Tom DeLay.

Shorties Meet Frankenstein

David Horsey on the Economy: a pictures speaks a thousand words.

Let Sleeping Preschoolers Lie: Remember last month we learned that too little sleep may be causing behavior and/or learning problems at school? Funny, nobody thought to ask how many of these problems might be cured by making sure the kids consistently get a good night’s sleep. It turns out that younger kids may also not be getting enough sleep.

Psst, Buddy, Wanna Buy a House? When the housing market slows down, it may cost the economy 800,000 skilled jobs. That does not include support services, such as mobile food services or sales of work clothes. Please note that these predictions are in the event of a “slowdown,” not a “bubble bursting.”

There Go 30,000 More Manufacturing Jobs: Ford may cut 30,000 more jobs. Merry Christmas. That’s on top of GM’s 30,000 announced layoffs. But those people get 95% of the pay they would get if they were working. (I don’t understand how GM hopes to save a lot of money this way.) According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, there were over 99,000 announced layoffs in November. and December is off to a big start. Keep these numbers in mind when the “job creation” numbers come out next.

Security Update: On this day when a man apparently trying to flee an airplane was shot dead by an Air Marshall, it might interest you to know that 30,000 people discovered they were erroneously put on a Federal terrorist watchlist. An unknown number of people may simply not know they are mistakenly on such a list. Of course, the watchlists are a waste of time and money anyway. In other security news, Gilmore Vs. Gonzales is finally going to Appeals Court. This case is about a lot of very important things, the most pressing of which are whether you need to show an ID card in order to travel, and whether the government can hold us to “secret laws.”

‘Tis the Season to Stuff Ourselves Senseless

It’s December, and the parade of food has begun. The cookies, candies, parties, and special meals won’t let up until you’ve shoveled black-eyed peas into your mouth on New Years Day. Figure in Thanksgiving, and you have six straight weeks of assorted feasting. Nobody can really blame you for putting on a few pounds over the holidays, can they?

This fellow came up with a novel diet plan: he only eats when he is hungry. That means not eating because “Gosh, that looks good” or “Everybody else is” or “It’s on my plate” or “It will just go to waste if I don’t” or “It’s lunchtime” or “It’s traditional” or even (particularly) “I’m depressed/stressed/tired/bored.”

He lost 50 pounds that way, and kept it off. His buddy tried it, lost 35 pounds, and seems to be keeping it off. They eat whatever strikes them, without counting calories or fat grams or carbohydrate grams, and stop when they are full. There are no forbidden foods. They do eat their vegetables.

Sounds worth a try, doesn’t it?

If you don’t like that idea, there’s the No S Diet. Here’s a fellow who decided to say NO to Sweets, Snacks, and Seconds except Sometimes on Special days. I like the fact that he admits up front that you can’t lose weight by eating a lot of sugar. I like even more that he addresses (like the first fellow) that our overriding diet problem as Americans is we just eat too darn much. And I really like the fact that it allows for a treat on the weekends or a piece of cake on your birthday. His approach to diet is very honest, and it’s worth a read no matter what your dietary paradigm. It’s hard to argue with his results.

In closing, the housing bubble may deflate slowly as Americans Just Say No to overpriced real estate markets, the GOP says they want to start a secret biological research and defense agency, but it sounds more like a biological warfare facility to me, more states start to say “No, thanks!” to Federal education dollars, how to reduce your chances of being hacked, and finally by way of follow up, I told you months ago that DINOs like Joe Lieberman should expect to have their Congressional seats challenged.