Month: October 2005

Jean Valjean

Somehow, modern America is stepping sideways into Nineteenth Century France. Prison terms for stealing food to feed starving children could be right around the corner.

The House of Representatives Agriculture Committee has voted along party lines to cut over $800 Million from the Food Stamps program, incidentally taking away subsidized school lunches from about 40,000 kids. This is just part of the $3700 million in proposed cuts the committee came up with.

The Senate Agriculture Committee managed to find $39 thousand million in cuts — over ten times what the House Committee proposed — without touching food stamps.

If you think that desperate parents will not turn to crime to feed their children, you weren’t paying attention to Katrina’s aftermath. If you think they can solve their problems by just getting a [insert expletive] job, you haven’t been paying attention to fuel costs and the “working poor.”

Now, don’t get me wrong. The federal budget is way out of control and seriously needs to be reigned in. Creating desperate families with hungry children (who will spend their school days wondering what they will eat instead of how to solve the math problem in front of them) is not the answer. We could follow Wolfowitz’s admonishment to cut farm subsidies. We could end billions of dollars of tax breaks to some of America’s most profitable corporations, oil companies. We could stop paying for mercenaries and re-think how contractors are selected. Then of course there are the obvious things that could be done to help balance the budget: cut pork; let certain tax cuts for the very rich lapse; let the IRS audit more large corporations and fewer low/middle income American voters.

Nope, certain members of Congress would rather take candy from a baby… or take school lunches from kids who made the mistake of being born “poor”.

Why 2K?

Another grim milestone has been reached. Over 2000 American soldiers have died in Iraq — 2001 at this time. You can learn more about these brave men and women of the American armed forces at CNN’s alphabetical listing, or the Washington Post’s list by date. You can see the places and dates they died mapped out or you can see their hometowns mapped out.

This figure does not include Iraqis. The death toll among Iraqis is even worse, most of them innocent civilians.

If you wanted to have just one second of silence for each of the fallen American soldiers, it would take you 66 minutes and 20 seconds. That’s longer than an episode of your choice of evening TV drama, about as long as any 3 half hour shows without commercials. You could perform John Cage’s 4″ 33″ over seven times. If you prefer more traditional music — say, with notes — you could listen to almost any recording of Anton Dvorak’s New World Symphony and probably have time left over for his Academic Festival Overture.

No surprise, support for the war is waning despite commentators who call the death toll historically low (and then going on to point out that nobody knows exactly how many amputees there are) and military officials who call the figure an “artificial mark on the wall” only discussed by “individuals or groups with specific agendas and ulterior motives.”

Specific agenda? Ulterior motive? My only “agenda” is that we remember these people were human beings.

Notice Something?

I volunteer time at a school library. Just outside the library there’s a sign that always makes me do a double take. On first glance, it would appear to say “Math is the Laramie of Wyoming.” Then I remind myself that it really says “Math is the Language of Reason,” which makes a lot more sense.

Anyway, off on the right column of the main page, you’ll notice something new. Yes, I finally got around to putting up a link list.

Up, Up, and Away!

Inflation is not a risk to the economy: it is happening to the economy right now.

Friday, we learned that consumer prices made their biggest jump since John Lennon was alive. This has resulted in the biggest Social Security COLA increase (Cost Of Living Adjustment) since the Original Bush Administration. As if that is not bad enough, wages are “lagging.” In fact, in inflation adjusted dollars, wages fell. Things get even worse if you have the math at your disposal to factor in the cost of housing — and we all need a place to sleep as much as we need food and fuel. It turns out that they took housing out of the CPI in 1983, and if you add it back in the inflation rate is more like 5.3%. I don’t think CPI includes rising college costs either.

Now, some pollyannas point out that this is the CPI (Consumer Price Index), which is relatively volatile, and was pushed up by food and energy prices, the core rate wasn’t nearly that high, and besides which fuel prices are a one-time blip so everything will be back to normal soon please Mr. Greenspan don’t kick our butts and stifle the economy with rate increases. This view completely discounts the fact that an increasing amount of the household budget has been going towards fuel lately. Various state Governors have been rethinking their travel arrangements because of fuel prices; they are cutting travel and switching to higher efficiency vehicles where possible. Maybe you don’t think much about the effect of gas prices on Joe and Jane Average when you are working on Wall Street; after all those folks probably took the subway.

This view was further crushed by today’s economic news: the PPI (Producer Price Index) has shown its biggest leap since the Original Bush Administration. Energy prices alone had the biggest increase since Iraq invaded Kuwait. Gasoline increased 17.9%. Even the core rate — excluding food and energy that we arguably can’t live without — increased a “worrisome increase of 0.3%….” Since goods just can’t be produced and transported without energy, expect the energy price increase to have a lasting effect on the PPI and CPI in general. The L.A. Times helpfully adds: “Businesses have the option of passing along the higher wholesale prices to consumers or reducing their profits, two alternatives that can eventually undermine economic growth.”

So there you are. Prices go up, or profits go down. Or, of course, companies find ways to cut costs — probably involving laying people off. In any event we lose. What a perfect time to tighten bankruptcy rules.

Shorties from Outer Space

In no particular order I bring you truly random thoughts.

Fun With Science! Something to do with the kids, and everybody might learn something.

Ten Things You Shouldn’t Buy New? Actually, I disagree with this person. Let me run through a few. Books/CDs/DVDs: yeah, lots of books only get read once. Yeah there’s lots of things you can get at used book stores and libraries. But what is your time hunting The Right Book worth? If you want to feel good about buying books you’ll only read once, donate them to the public library or sell them to Half-Price Books. Kid’s toys: Apparently she’s never heard of safety recalls. As for “sturdy wooden toys,” just because it’s wood doesn’t mean it’s sturdy. Cars: Sorry, a new car has more advantages than New Car Smell. It has, oh, a warranty! No, that’s no promise that it won’t break, but it does mean that if it breaks, there’s someone who will get it fixed. And these days, a good dealership will gladly drive you to work after you drop off your car for service. Over the years I have seen so many people spend the equivalent of a car payment every month fixing an unreliable old car, because they think they can’t afford to replace it. I am not dissing used cars, just telling you to be careful and avoid money pits. Okay, a new car depreciates. So do used ones. Cars are not investments.

A hilarious cookbook! (Thanks to Slashfood) If you enjoy that, please progress to the Institute of Official Cheer.

Alan Greenspan used to be quoted as saying that retirement was like a stool with three legs: savings, Social Security, and pensions. Well, you know how the Administration wants to saw off the “Social Security” leg, but maybe you don’t know about the termites eating away at pensions. Now, personally I do not like to refer to “defined contribution plans” such as 401k programs as “pensions.” Let’s be real, a defined contribution plan is nothing more than a savings plan run by your boss. So keep that in mind as you read.

It’s official, temperatures are rising. Now, what was that the President was saying about there being no such thing as Global Warming?

Doctors agree that abstinence only education is Bad. (Thanks to Paxtonland) “The new policy says that while doctors should encourage adolescents to postpone sexual activity, they also should help ensure that all teens — not just those who are sexually active — have access to birth control, including emergency contraception.”

Finally, Fafblog!’s War on Poverty. (Thanks to Ezra Klein)

No. No! No!

It is a few weeks away from Election Day 2005. There are no Federal officials on the ballot, but there is very likely a slate of local officials that you really ought to read up on. There may also be some very important ballot initiatives and/or amendments to your State Constitution.

I said it last year and I will repeat it this year: ballot initiatives are a good idea that almost always turn out badly.

This year, Washington State has a pair of dueling ballot initiatives — cue the banjos! Both initiatives have as their stated goal to control the cost of medical malpractice insurance. On one hand, we have I-330, supported by some doctors groups: “it caps at $350,000 the amount an injured patient can claim in noneconomic — also known as pain and suffering — damages. It also limits fees for plaintiff attorneys, shortens the time limit for filing malpractice claims and allows health-care providers to require binding arbitration for damage claims.” On the other hand we have I-336, supported by some lawyers: “it revokes medical licenses of doctors who have three malpractice jury verdicts against them in a 10-year period and makes it easier for patients to learn about medical errors. It also creates a state-run supplemental malpractice-insurance fund and requires public hearings on malpractice-insurance-rate increases.” Of course, all this is a summary of probably 20 pages of fine print legalese. For each initiative.

Supporters of I-330 claim that their proposal will improve medical care and access to it, as well as get more money to patients. Detractors say that “voluntary” binding arbitration will be something that doctors require before they will even treat you. Detractors have not pointed out the compete red herring of a cap on non-economic damages. The fact of the matter is that there is already a cap on what malpractice insurance will pay, and that amount is often exceeded by actual real damages when a person has been killed or disabled by true medical malpractice. The only state in which it appears that damage caps have kept down malpractice insurance rates is California, which happens to have a system in place for controlling insurance rates.

Supporters of I-336 claim want to create a “3 strikes” system for doctors and hold “public” hearings on insurance rate increases. Yeah, 3 strikes worked so well for California criminals. I am not against trying to get the “few bad apples” out of the doctoring business, but threatening the entire industry is not the way to do it. And as for hearings on rate increases that nobody will really attend? If you want to mandate regulation of rates, just do it. There is a State Insurance Commissioner, after all. Opponents say that I-336 will create more bureaucracy and put more money in the pockets of trial lawyers.

Allow me to join with several major newspapers and urge you to vote heck no on both I-330 and I-336. While you are at it, vote against all the other voter initiatives. But please, if your local schools and libraries need money, vote to let them have it.

In closing, I bring you these tidbits: On average, 2 American soldiers still die every day in Iraq. Don’t like the 9th Circuit? Hack it up! Fun with Science in the Home! and How a Democrat can get elected.

Dear Ms. Coulter,

I must admit some amusement to your objections to the nomination of Ms. Miers to the Supreme Court. No, really, that line about how she’s not qualified to play a Supreme Court Justice on The West Wing was just hilarious, dear.

But really, I must express some concern that the worst thing you could think of to say about Harriet Miers is that she’s an SMU girl! Putting aside my own status as an SMU Alumna, do you really mean to insult the fine women who have graduated from Southern Methodist University, including the esteemed Mrs. Bush?

I mean really, it’s not like she got her law degree from Fill-In-The-State Wesleyan!

You could have chosen to make fun of her Tammy Faye makeup, or her her long history in the sordid tale of Dallas politics; you could even have pointed out that she would still be working within a half hour of her alma mater if the President hadn’t taken her to Washington D.C.. You could have wondered aloud why she didn’t get her MRS along with her JD, speculating whether or not she might be a closet feminist, albeit with some hypocrisy. You could have focused on the fact that she’d never been a judge of any sort, not even on the SMU Moot Court. Better yet, you could have tried to figure out what the woman actually thinks and stands for. Instead you chose to impugn a fine university that apparently doesn’t meet your discerning standards.

Surely a Cornell grad like yourself can come up with something intellectually rigorous to say against Ms. Miers.

Sincerely,
ShortWoman

Fore!

Today, some experts are predicting that gas prices in the United States will hit $4 per gallon by the end of the year. Needless to say, other experts dispute this possibility. As much as I would love to say that this is an obvious panic marking a top in prices, it is worth considering what would happen if they are right.

Gas prices at $4 per gallon would represent a doubling of price over the course of two years. It would be over 30% inflation from right now. This is inflation all by itself, even before you consider that just about every object you could possibly have in your home needed fuel to get there, either in the manufacturing process or the delivery process. Expect general inflation to come on the heels of such an increase in fuel costs.

Increased inflation means Agent Greenspan must swing into action, raising interest rates. This means interest rates will go up for loans, credit cards, and mortgages. For goodness sakes, if you have ignored my warnings to lock in your adjustable rate mortgage, this may be your last chance! One benefit to Joe and Jane Average is that the interest paid on bonds will also go up, and there is a slim chance that interest paid on their savings may go up ever so slightly. Of course, this also means that the national debt will grow even faster.

Consumer and employee confidence are already down. And no wonder! Planned layoffs are continuing to outpace planned new hires. Expect a continued decline in confidence if gas hits $4 per gallon. Wal-Mart was concerned about gas prices a year ago, estimating it was costing their customers an additional $7 per week; one can only imagine what the internally circulated numbers look like now. Gas prices are now bad enough that Wendy’s is willing to blame poor sales on high gas prices.

As CNN reported yesterday (see previous post for link), people are already changing their habits due to high gas prices. That will continue. Unnecessary trips will not happen. That means less shopping, less eating out, fewer after-school activities. The malls will be trying to come up with interesting ways to get people into the building. The guys who downgraded the company which owns Olive Garden and Red Lobster will look like geniuses. People will be bringing brown bags to work with them, partly to save money and partly to save gas. If $4 per gallon gas persists, private school enrollment might also suffer, as such institutions often draw students from several miles away.

However, internet and mail order businesses will see increased orders. Whether they will profit from this depends on whether they can keep shipping costs reasonable. eBay will continue to see decent traffic as the intersection of people trying to turn unneeded objects into cash and people looking for online bargains.

Truck and SUV sales are already plunging. Expect a continued shift away from low fuel efficiency vehicles. Light truck prices, particularly in the used vehicle market, will plunge. Detroit will not be able to prop up truck sales with incentives in the long run. Many people will reevaluate whether or not they really need a large vehicle; some will sell, while others will get a small high efficiency “around town” vehicle for everyday use. Some insurance fraud is possible as truck owners decide it is easier to have the truck stolen than to sell it.

Mass transit will be all the rage. Well managed systems will benefit; poorly managed systems will collapse under their own ridership. Being near train and bus stops will be a plus rather than a minus for homes. People will — perhaps for a limited time — be willing to support taxes and mass transit initiatives.

There used to be a bit of buzz about people moving to “exurbia,” that place a little farther out than the suburbs, where there is still a slightly country feel, yards are big, and houses cost less. People who went for that bigger cheaper house further out are feeling the pinch of gas prices, and it will only get worse. Double that if they over-extended themselves to buy it. Property on the edges of metropolitan areas will decline in value as these exurban areas will no longer be seen as commutable. Some families will even reevaluate whether it is cost effective for both parents to drive to work every day.

Finally, people will walk away from debts. Between rising day-to-day expenses and tougher bankruptcy laws going into effect this month, there will be people who just decide to stop sending a check to Chase Manhattan or GMAC every month. “Go ahead, cancel my credit card,” and “Please, take back the truck I can’t afford to gas up anyway.”

I hope I am overreacting. Better yet, I hope the experts are wrong.

Night of the Living Shorties!

What did he know and when did he know it? Uh, what about her? See something wrong in this picture? No? Ok, how about now? You might recall that August 6, 2001 — the date ascribed to the photo — was the same day that the Presidential Daily Briefing was all about some guy named Bin Laden. What is that in her hand? I’m not sure what to make of Ms. Miers, and neither is anybody else. President Bush is expending some effort to defend his decision. A Democrat I normally have the utmost respect for, Harry Reid, supports her nomination. Is this because he honestly thinks she will be alright, is this because of some back-room deal to keep out a real wing-nut, or is this to poison her nomination? How does that work? Well, the conservative base isn’t happy (everyone else is waiting to see what happens next); by supporting her as a liberal Democrat, he makes them less happy. If the Republican base in the Senate then turns against her, he can defeat her while claiming to be the very face of bipartisan support.

Beep beep, beep beep, his car went beep beep beep. Ford and GM had an absolutely abysmal September, and the fun in Detroit is only starting: by a terrible coincidence GM is having a big board meeting today. It is expected to be ugly. Meanwhile, Joe and Jane Average are “Getting strangled at the pump.”

Search Me. Wired brings to our attention some people you won’t find online, the UnGoogleables. There are plenty of people with legitimate reasons they don’t want to be found online. I sure hope Wired used fake names when they put it online….

Ralph Kramden’s Bowling Team. One last word on Katrina. Ok, make that 25 questions about Katrina.

It’s easier to eat cat food than to figure out the prescription drug benefit…. “Most seniors don’t understand the new prescription-drug program being offered under Medicare and don’t plan to sign up for coverage, even after months of salesmanship by the Bush administration.” Yeah. “The program is projected to cost $720 billion over 10 years, according to the latest calculations by the Bush administration. Some members of Congress have suggested delaying the program’s start to help offset the costs of recovery from hurricanes Katrina and Rita, but the White House has rejected those appeals.” Yeah.

Fannie! Finally, my favorite whipping post, Fannie Mae. I’m not the only one who thinks there might be trouble brewing in the world of real estate, and that Fannie might just be the eye of the storm.