Month: September 2005

Nihon no Keezai Kurasu

Or, “Japanese Economics Class”

Agent Greenspan has spent most of the week talking out of both sides of his mouth. For example: homeowners are in fine shape except for the risky mortgage products, speculative activity, and cashing out of equity. If you want to take a shot at deciphering Greenspeak for yourself, here’s what he actually said today. Currently, Greenspan appears to be telegraphing that there will be a continued rise in interest rates, because there is a continuing risk of inflation. This is of course assuming that the trend of foreign owners of American bonds depressing interest rates does not continue.

Some analysts think this is just awful news. Doesn’t Greenspan know about the lousy consumer confidence numbers? Isn’t he worried about the people who are overextended on mortgages and credit cards? Doesn’t he want to keep interest rates low to stimulate the economy? Has he not noticed the flat stock market? Doesn’t he know that the Administration expects the hurricane damage in the Gulf Coast to sharply impact the economy? Has the old man lost his freaking mind?

Oh yeah, and what does Japan have to do with this?

WARNING! Severe Oversimplification Follows! Modern economic theory says that lowering interest rates stimulates the economy: it makes it cheaper to borrow money, and therefore easier for companies to buy manufacturing equipment — to say nothing of making it easier for Joe and Jane Average to buy things like houses and appliances and cars on credit. Raising interest rates, however, stifles inflation — and with energy prices being what they are, who can blame Greenspan for thinking inflation is a bigger potential problem than slow economic growth.

For some years, Japan has had economic problems. A huge stock bubble in the 80s was followed by a colossal bust in the 90s, and the economy suffered. More accurately, the economy suffered despite slashing interest rates to very low levels, even to zero! If you believe that low interest rates stimulate the economy, you must now be saying something along the lines of “HUH?”

The Japanese economy, while not where it was in the 80s, is now recovering. However, mucking about with the interest rates did not bring this about. It took dealing with underlying problems, in Japan’s case banking/credit reform and consolidation.

It is my theory that beneath certain levels, low interest rates do not stimulate the economy. There are several factors which combine to this result: First, when rates are very low, there is no incentive for lenders to extend credit to individuals and companies. Since the available rate of return is so low, they would rather take the sure thing on government bonds. Housing lending has continued partly because there is a real asset involved, and partly because such loans can be sold to aggregators such as Fannie Mae.

Second, when interest rates are very low, corporate borrowers — who are supposed to be goaded into action by super low rates — are mindful that the Powers That Be feel the economy is lousy. It is a bad idea to incur debts and invest in infrastructure when the economy is lousy. What will the stockholders say? What cash they do have they will sit on until the moment is right. After all, if the economy is lousy, they may well need the cash cushion. As for loans, they will wait for some kind of signal that things are improving — an increase in interest rates, maybe — before calling for cash.

Finally, the third leg of the economic table, Joe and Jane Average do not experience added liquidity. While the banks are more than happy to lend them money for concrete things like houses and cars, the banks won’t lend them cash for things that have a lasting impact on the economy. They can’t get cash to start a business (or to help along their existing business) because it’s too risky — for the bank, that is.

So, Alan? You just keep raising that interest rate, mmkay?

How to Keep a Job

Last week I wasn’t really able to post. I was busy. Specifically, I was busy doing a job I have already hired 2 people to do. This week, I will also spend a lot of time at what should be somebody else’s desk doing what should be somebody else’s job. If you think I find this frustrating, you are correct!

So please allow me, as an employer who has personally created jobs this year, to give you a few handy tips on remaining employed:

Show up! I’m not one of those people who subscribes to the theory that some percent of life is showing up. Rather, showing up is a pre-resquisite. You can’t do a job you aren’t there to do. The job wouldn’t exist if it didn’t need to be done. So show up. Be on time. Don’t cut out early. Reasonable bosses understand that sometimes things like sickness and emergencies and accidents happen. Reasonable bosses also have a finite amount of patience. This is particularly true in small offices where one person represents a double-digit percentage of the workforce.

Just do it! Your job, that is. Another non-shocker. Your number one priority at work — well, after safety — is getting the job done. For each task, Do it once; Do it right. If there’s something you can’t do, figure out why not and what to do about it.

Do what needs to be done. Want to never get a promotion again? Or want to be the first person laid off? Just use these magic words: “That’s not my job.” If the boss asks you to do something, do it. This is of course assuming that you are able to do it and that it’s legal. If a co-worker needs your help, there’s nothing wrong with lending a hand within limits of your time and ability. I am not saying to do his/her job; be reasonable. By extension, you can get a reputation as a go-getter by seeing something that needs to be done and just handling it. You might want to toss in “Oh, by the way, I took care of the XYZ.” Credit where it’s due, you know.

Be willing to solve problems. It’s okay to have problems, but it’s better to fix them. I can’t solve problems I don’t know about, so it’s important to share; however, I always prefer to hear “This is an issue” followed by “and this is what we can do about it.”

Adjust your attitude. I don’t expect boot-kissing, but I won’t tolerate a ‘tude either. There’s no such thing as job security, not even among professional types. Very, very few people have anything approaching “tenure” these days. Chances are you are not one of them.

I hope you find this helpful. Now, I must get back to work until such time as I can find someone else to staff this position.

In closing: A horrifying view of how we are turning poor children into zombies while claiming to educate them. Do we really need a standardized college curriculum? One Thousand Million Dollars missing from Iraq’s defense ministry, that would sure buy a lot of ammo. For that matter that would sure go a long time towards infrastructure. How we’ll all end up paying for Katrina. A follow-up on local disaster planning. And finally, FBI seeks recruits for Porn Squad, since we all know boobs are more dangerous than bombs in the wrong hands.

Here in my Car…

This week there was some economic news: Consumer Sentiment numbers as reported by the University of Michigan dropped sharply, to levels far below what “the experts” anticipated (coincidentally, the Bloomberg version of the story points out a similar drop in President Bush’s approval rating); and retail sales are weak, dragged down by lousy car sales numbers. About the only bright spot on the car sales front is that hybrids are hot, hot, hot. Consumers are caught between light trucks whose values have collapsed and new cars that only sell because of silly incentives. It is no secret why both these things are true, but let me give you the expert take: “Toyota Motor Corp.’s president said he’s ‘worried’ that fuel prices, which surged to records after Hurricane Katrina disrupted supplies in the U.S., may curb worldwide demand for new autos.” It is no coincidence that Toyota offers hybrid cars and trucks.

If the American auto industry really wants to keep selling cars, they are going to have to stop offering the crazy CRAZY crazy deal of the week, and start offering vehicles that people are willing to buy at full price. And unless gas prices fall below $2/gallon (ha, yeah right) that means they need to be both safe and fuel efficient.

They tell you that the popularity of the SUV is evidence that people want these land yachts. If that is so, then drop the incentives! They tell you that bigger vehicles are safer vehicles. The truth is that safe vehicles exist at all size levels; it is a function of good design, not pure mass. Size = safety is one of those over-generalizations, like “All old people like prunes.”

The technology exists to make fuel efficient cars. Thirty years ago, there were efficient cars. They might not have been pretty, and they might not have been peppy, but they were affordable; now we have 30 years of technological advances that can and should be used to make them better. Here’s one fellow whose gadget makes cars both more efficient and less polluting. Somebody, find me a downside to this!

In closing, Senator seeks Wealthy Corpse. Object, poster child for estate tax cuts. Also, CNN takes time to say “if you need a non-standard mortgage to afford that house, maybe you should reconsider.” And finally, two former Governors — one Democrat, one Republican — say our health care system is broken.

New Krakau

I hadn’t planned on posting today, let alone posting on Hurricane relief issues, but I have some Must Read Links

I have seen some reports over the last few days that were first dismissed as anecdotal that Katrina Evacuees are being held in remote locations, surrounded by “security.” This security will not allow them to leave, nor will they allow outsiders in. A caller to the Ed Schultz Show told a similar story about his attempts to get assistance to people in camps located in several locations, including Arizona and Texas. He was turned away, not even allowed to say hello to the evacuees behind barbed wire.

But this is the one thing you must read and tell people about today: American citizens are being held in remote camps, unable to contact the outside world, unable to get their lives together. And she has pictures. We have transcended anecdote and are in the world of eyewitness account. Are they being held against their will? Who can say, since they have no contact with the outside world. They aren’t allowed to go to church; they aren’t even allowed to have a preacher visit them. They aren’t even allowed to have a bowl of cereal. There is every indication that they will be held incommunicado for at least 5 months, unable to get new jobs, unable to pay the bills, unable to process insurance claims, unable to declare bankruptcy before the new rules take effect, unable to get their kids into school, unable to so much as have a cold glass of milk. Some of these people have relatives who would like to take them home. Remember, as Howard Dean said just the other day, “They are not refugees. They are Americans.”

People want to help the evacuees displaced by Hurricane Katrina, but they are not being permitted to do so. Why? These pictures are of course sanitized for your protection, but even the media-safe pictures make it clear that they are in the middle of nowhere. There are no jobs, apartments, schools, cell phone towers, internet connections for miles around. It’s a great place to seek inner peace, but a lousy place to start rebuilding a shattered life.

At least there are potential employers near the Astrodome.

Escape is possible from the Astrodome.

Move to the Right for Sirens and Light

Maybe you’ve seen it on a bumper sticker. Maybe you learned it in Driver’s Ed. “Move to the Right for Sirens and Light” means that when you see an emergency vehicle such as a police car, fire truck, or ambulance with the lights and sirens going, you pull to the side of the road and wait for it to pass. The idea is simple: get out of the way of the people trying to save lives.

I was reminded of this simple rule this morning. Two kids were hit by a car while waiting for the bus, although I didn’t know it until later; all I knew is there were two school busses and lots of emergency equipment on the main road and I was going the other way. More emergency equipment was converging on the scene, so I ended up pulling over a bunch of times. One fellow got impatient and passed me as I followed the law. I can only hope that his karma catches up with him and he reaps what he sows.

What is so hard about get out of the way of people trying to save lives?

They even seem to be having a problem with this very basic concept in New Orleans.

The authorities are too busy preventing photojournalists from showing us what is really going on. Specifically, they don’t want us seeing pictures of the dead. Forgive me for saying that horse has left the barn. Why don’t they want us to see the pictures? Are they afraid to put a human image on this tragedy?

A thousand firefighers showed up. Are they putting out the fires we keep hearing about? Are they triaging the thousands of people who need medical assistance? Are they helping the search and rescue efforts? No, they are passing out fliers.

Medical aid is similarly messed up. Doctors can’t get to people who need them. Doctors who responded to a request for volunteers were met with a web form and and assurance that they might be called in 5-7 days. Pardon me for pointing out that people will die before then.

FEMA is specifically telling first responders not to show up. They have been slow to accept assistance from the business community and even slow to accept assistance from other government agencies. They haven’t even bothered to reply to certain offers of assistance from foreign nations. They responded late despite the fact that a state of emergency was declared even before the storm hit, and have “Turned Away Aid, Rescue Crews, Cut Emergency Communication Lines.”

They are even reprimanding Navy pilots who, having completed their primary mission, stopped to save lives. Foolishly, they thought that was their overriding mission.

The Mayor of New Orleans says there may be 10,000 dead in his city — and remember, that’s just one city in a 3 state area that has been devastated. A mortuary director has been quoted as expecting 40,000 bodies. Since FEMA is actively impeding emergency workers and keeping them from saving lives, expect this number to be conservative.

Move to the Right for Sirens and Light. Get out of the way of people who are trying to save lives.

If this is anything like the way we are handling things in Iraq, no wonder there is an insurgency. “They hate us for our freedoms” indeed.

But why is this being handled so badly? Is it just sheer incompetence? Evacuees are being spread across the country, where they will tell their new neighbors everything that happened. Furthermore, the blame game is already on in Washington. So, political gain is not the goal. Are we looking for an excuse to keep interest rates low? After all this is going to have a negative effect on the economy. In fact, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that 400,000 jobs were lost. Of course the Administration will use this as an excuse when the official job creation numbers come out. You can count on me to call foul if they claim job creation in positive numbers.

Assuming that there is some plan at work, as opposed to mere stupidity, the only logical reason I can think of is that this is a preface to a huge land grab. Evacuees will be forced to sell or allow foreclosure on any land they have in New Orleans, and inasmuch as there is nothing left habitable on it, many of them will be glad to accept pennies on the dollar. The land will be redeveloped in a manner that is wildly profitable, and you can bet the levees will be fortified. Of course this doesn’t leave any room for the evacuees to return, now does it?

I would like to close with a few happy tidbits for you, so here’s Traditional Crafts of Japan, How to make authentic Sourdough bread, Online textbooks, and “What do those characters on the sign at the Chinese Restaurant mean?”

Fubared

Needless to say, New Orleans is a disaster area, and our hearts go out to the people who are still trapped there. If you have the means, donate directly to the Red Cross. Do not mess around with FEMA or Fly-By-Nite Disaster Charity Fund; this is too important. By now I think everyone is aware that there are two primary disasters. No, not “hurricane” and “flood.” Rather, there was a natural disaster and a manmade disaster.

A really big hurricane hitting New Orleans was long considered one of the top most likely disasters that FEMA would have to face. This should — in theory — mean that plans should exist for getting people out and getting aid in. You wouldn’t know it to look at the news. In fact, it almost looks like the Administration did everything in it’s power to make the expected disaster even bigger. In sharp contrast to President Bush’s insistence that nobody could have seen it coming, it is clear that lots of people within the Government knew this was likely and the Administration did worse than nothing about it. The amount of money Bremmer “lost” in Iraq could have paid to prevent this a hundred times over.

Let me say that again: the amount of money that our people simply can’t account for in Iraq could have paid for the levee improvements 100 times, chartered busses to get each and every one of New Orleans’s 500,000 residents out, and purchased a stockpile of bottled water for dessert. How disingenuous to say we couldn’t afford it. If the experts are correct that Katrina might mean a $100 thousand million hit to the economy, how could we afford not to do it?

How nice that Congress is willing to pony up $10.5 thousand million dollars in disaster relief. Of course, there goes the President’s insistence that the budget deficit is lower than previously expected, a trend that will continue as long as that pesky Congress doesn’t go spending money.

This brings me to the manmade disaster. Keep in mind, that like many disasters, the groundwork was laid long before a problem became apparent. In this case, the disaster begins within days of Bush becoming President, when he appointed a FEMA head with no disaster management experience. This was followed by budget cuts, downgrading FEMA from a cabinet level position to a part of Homeland Security, changing FEMA’s focus to terrorism response, and who knows what else.

No, seriously, I wonder what other surprises the Administration has done to us while we’ve been concentrating on big things like civil liberties, vote counting, terrorism, Social Security, and the like. What other looming disasters haven’t we noticed?

Now, to give you an idea of how badly this has been managed, this is Friday. The storm was Monday. Just now, as I have been writing, a military supply convoy has arrived. The Mayor of New Orleans has been understandably upset by the slow and inadequate response. The President himself has said “The results are unacceptable.” Well, Mr. President, who is to blame for that?

Part of the current problem is that many of the National Guardsmen who signed up to protect their state are currently in Iraq. In a strange bit of irony, some of them were scheduled to come home in the next few weeks, but nothing is being done to expedite the matter. Instead, Guardsmen from other regions are being called in to help. And although they gladly will, the fact is that a whole lot of first responders who could have been there in a matter of hours are instead overseas.

But do you know what really steams me? In another Let Them Eat Cake moment, the director of FEMA blames the people trapped in New Orleans for not leaving before the storm, and adds that “Things are going relatively well.” I am flabbergasted! Does he honestly think the people in hospitals could have evacuated? Does he have the faintest clue that anybody who could get out has? The entire point of having the Superdome as an emergency shelter is that there are vast swaths of the population that couldn’t go: no money, no transportation, no place to go. The poverty rate is higher in Louisiana than the national average, and as I pointed out earlier in the week, the national average is one in eight people. There are at least 75,000 refugees, or 15% of the population of the city.

Fifteen percent of the population of a major American city have been left to die. He calls that “going relatively well.”

The one take-away lesson from this disaster is that we cannot count on the Federal Government in time of crisis. This being the case, I urge you to join me today in a campaign of preparedness. Write your state, county, and city officials, urging them to review their disaster plans, and modify them to reflect the fact that FEMA is ineffectual. Ask that they seriously examine plans for evacuation, shelters, stockpiles, and rebuilding. Urge your Governor to recall National Guard troops to defend the state, the fundamental duty they signed up to do. Furthermore, persuade your Governor to make alliances with neighboring states and/or nations to provide reciprocal disaster aid. Do not forget to see to your personal preparedness with things like canned food, bottled water, flashlights, battery powered radios, and of course batteries. Plastic sheeting and duct tape are optional, but they can’t hurt and might be useful. Your state may have additional information about likely threats in your region.

In a twist reminiscent of getting news about Czechoslovakia from the Usenet during their revolution, the best way to find out what is really happening in New Orleans in a spin free manner is blogs. I recommend NOLA, run by the local newspaper, and The Interdictor, run by a fellow who is keeping internet communications going from a secure location somewhere in a downtown high-rise.